F1 · resolved market
Will Lewis Hamilton finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x82d99bda429e58de767bb33f1c503cc3da1d269319d694ef091343973501d1e1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- F1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,442
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,105
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,442 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in F1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in F1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x661d…4dc6backed No | 64c | 2,861$1,825 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,036.29 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…45eebacked Yes | 42c | 1,800$748 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$748.03 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa19d…3909backed No | 78c | 1,095$851 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.88 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +418.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb7c0…f389backed Yes | 37c | 973.59$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed No | 71c | 626.45$447 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.13 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Yes | 23c | 525$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 208 | 43.3%90 W · 118 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ce9…0cf5backed Yes | 41c | 480.67$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.84 | 118 | 36.4%43 W · 75 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x904f…50c6backed Yes | 20c | 444$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.58 | 159 | 22%35 W · 124 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9edd…6fe3backed No | 76c | 346.8$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.5 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked Yes | 25c | 302.81$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.56 | 116 | 37.9%44 W · 72 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x064a…6007backed Yes | 36c | 279.85$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9d2…7ad6backed Yes | 19c | 264.7$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.37 | 100 | 65%65 W · 35 L | +20.3wins | +0.20per pick | 45cpaid | +66.6%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed Yes | 17c | 216.92$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.22 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 70c | 200$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.19 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 21c | 148.3$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.51 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb046…857cbacked No | 48c | 147.43$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.99 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa986…3dfdbacked Yes | 75c | 146.05$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked Yes | 16c | 136.22$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.16 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe2c3…16ccbacked Yes | 23c | 131.57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bee…a715backed No | 77c | 129.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.87 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.21per pick | 59cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 17c | 120.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.48 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 10cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae0b…0913backed Yes | 51c | 117.63$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.99 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe66e…946bbacked Yes | 31c | 114.28$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed0…9c4fbacked No | 60c | 105.39$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.77 | 118 | 45.8%54 W · 64 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34ae…cdb5backed No | 79c | 90.85$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecb1…5da3backed Yes | 71c | 75$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.33 | 89 | 39.3%35 W · 54 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8105…955abacked Yes | 21c | 70.19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.43 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xceb7…8b33backed No | 74c | 65.02$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.08 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 21c | 60.36$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.68 | 376 | 6.9%26 W · 350 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30ee…a587backed Yes | 29c | 59.81$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.05 | 91 | 64.8%59 W · 32 L | +13.8wins | +0.15per pick | 50cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x8ea8…077dbacked No | 79c | 56.32$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.9 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 61c | 53.93$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.84 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0115…ac79backed No | 48c | 51.84$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.84 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked Yes | 32c | 50.9$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.3 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d2a…9ee3backed No | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 55cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…d080backed Yes | 35c | 47.9$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.67 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x168a…da29backed No | 47c | 43.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.22 | 144 | 58.3%84 W · 60 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2375…691fbacked No | 49c | 38$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.38 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4861…4fcabacked No | 67c | 27.07$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.05 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d4…84a1backed No | 79c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd9e…49b3backed No | 56c | 22.73$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 85 | 29.4%25 W · 60 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c94…6ba9backed No | 55c | 19.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.20per pick | 47cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x06dd…af8bbacked No | 62c | 19.52$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.33 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4aab…38ccbacked No | 77c | 14.87$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.42 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -23%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in F1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Lewis Hamilton finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix?this page
- Will Andrea Kimi Antonelli finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix?Yes won
- Will Arvid Lindblad finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix?No won
- Will Charles Leclerc finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix?Yes won
- Will Esteban Ocon finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix?No won
- Will Franco Colapinto finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix?No won
- Will George Russell finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix?No won
- Will Lando Norris finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix?No won
- Will Liam Lawson finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix?No won
- Will Max Verstappen finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix?No won
- Will Oliver Bearman finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix?No won
- Will Oscar Piastri finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix?Yes won
- Will Pierre Gasly finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.