F1 · resolved market
Will Andrea Kimi Antonelli finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4717e7cdd572d4cac5e51a011a9a9ebb1e422055a94cb1451eb9b4d420d6ae7e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- F1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,824
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,797
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,824 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in F1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in F1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x30ee…a587backed Yes | 75c | 3,104$2,324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$780.15 | 91 | 64.8%59 W · 32 L | +13.8wins | +0.15per pick | 50cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked No | 14c | 2,749$398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$397.99 | 99 | 35.4%35 W · 64 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06dd…af8bbacked No | 21c | 1,697$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.72 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 11c | 1,287$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.6 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked No | 9c | 1,200$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.07 | 208 | 43.3%90 W · 118 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7c0…f389backed No | 22c | 660$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.8 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x661d…4dc6backed No | 25c | 587.36$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.52 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67f4…f91bbacked No | 25c | 490.88$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.72 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.30per pick | 20cpaid | +141.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda16…6da2backed No | 26c | 400$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe66e…946bbacked No | 13c | 371.79$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…aa2fbacked No | 7c | 300$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bee…a715backed No | 10c | 257.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.21per pick | 59cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 9c | 253.49$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.67 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked No | 11c | 219.1$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.1 | 213 | 37.6%80 W · 133 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8934…a13cbacked No | 23c | 217.39$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 25 | 8%2 W · 23 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7ed…6c8bbacked No | 7c | 162.49$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.37 | 77 | 39%30 W · 47 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +12%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a76…a671backed No | 18c | 160$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.33per pick | 42cpaid | +54.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 17c | 160$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.61 | 376 | 6.9%26 W · 350 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6db6…ca26backed No | 29c | 150$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed No | 12c | 131.38$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.87 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2375…691fbacked No | 14c | 105$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 30c | 100.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.09 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4513…3449backed Yes | 73c | 68.49$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.49 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 66cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f5c…9e02backed No | 30c | 53.64$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.12 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.19per pick | 53cpaid | +21%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36bf…2864backed Yes | 46c | 50.32$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.16 | 144 | 29.9%43 W · 101 L | +14.2wins | +0.10per pick | 20cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xec56…1259backed No | 32c | 41.94$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.41 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2b6…d7cebacked No | 32c | 41.03$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.12 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xceb7…8b33backed No | 32c | 38.92$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.45 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0828…5cfebacked No | 31c | 36.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Yes | 78c | 25.27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.61 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in F1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Andrea Kimi Antonelli finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix?this page
- Will Arvid Lindblad finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix?No won
- Will Charles Leclerc finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix?Yes won
- Will Esteban Ocon finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix?No won
- Will Franco Colapinto finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix?No won
- Will George Russell finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix?No won
- Will Lando Norris finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix?No won
- Will Lewis Hamilton finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix?No won
- Will Liam Lawson finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix?No won
- Will Max Verstappen finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix?No won
- Will Oliver Bearman finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix?No won
- Will Oscar Piastri finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix?Yes won
- Will Pierre Gasly finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.