F1 · resolved market
Will Charles Leclerc finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdc02945c64dd739dbbc1b23458b5aa1e29086b0fe013f44160385c4de5d0ba0a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- F1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,274
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,598
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,274 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in F1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in F1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x033f…618ebacked No | 52c | 1,857$965 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$964.67 | 99 | 35.4%35 W · 64 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…45eebacked Yes | 41c | 1,848$764 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,083.92 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7c0…f389backed Yes | 44c | 1,270$553 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$716.73 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d9d…992bbacked No | 54c | 796.32$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430.01 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe66e…946bbacked Yes | 54c | 693.09$372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$321.33 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 39c | 659.18$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.22 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…d080backed Yes | 22c | 500.86$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$391.58 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9edd…6fe3backed No | 73c | 499.1$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365.29 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7480…8f12backed No | 68c | 458.81$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x661d…4dc6backed No | 38c | 442.04$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.96 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked No | 38c | 440.15$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.26 | 208 | 43.3%90 W · 118 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5583…8490backed Yes | 62c | 433.13$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.16 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94a5…4eb8backed Yes | 28c | 419$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.52 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ce9…0cf5backed Yes | 33c | 349.26$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.48 | 118 | 36.4%43 W · 75 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…200bbacked No | 46c | 300$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3113…3107backed Yes | 56c | 299.99$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +65.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7ed…6c8bbacked Yes | 54c | 280$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.8 | 77 | 39%30 W · 47 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +12%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4861…4fcabacked No | 12c | 272.8$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.34 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99f7…1a59backed Yes | 17c | 253$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.47 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +3.9wins | +0.36per pick | 46cpaid | +129.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xecb1…5da3backed Yes | 50c | 239.06$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.53 | 89 | 39.3%35 W · 54 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x027c…b158backed No | 9c | 229.02$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.61 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x095b…25cabacked Yes | 69c | 226.23$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.23 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4513…3449backed Yes | 46c | 223.88$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.01 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 66cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4f…728abacked No | 38c | 206.5$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.78 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa42c…5a6ebacked No | 17c | 201$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.19 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 14cpaid | +70.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed No | 65c | 175.69$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.51 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1eca…3a06backed Yes | 78c | 157.83$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.08 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | +4.4wins | +0.13per pick | 55cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x06dd…af8bbacked No | 49c | 156.86$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.86 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad73…2eddbacked Yes | 51c | 156.86$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.86 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 43c | 153.05$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.17 | 126 | 16.7%21 W · 105 L | -6.7wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -52%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc30f…b556backed Yes | 77c | 142.44$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.44 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +27%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8871…a59abacked Yes | 13c | 133.65$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.65 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8482…3f7abacked No | 44c | 132$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.59 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.21per pick | 37cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed Yes | 23c | 113.14$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.01 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 16cpaid | +28%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c5b…907cbacked Yes | 40c | 110.23$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.51 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -16%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked Yes | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 116 | 37.9%44 W · 72 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa23b…af4bbacked No | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22df…ed56backed Yes | 32c | 93.75$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.75 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f14…026ebacked Yes | 61c | 82.31$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.31 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.14per pick | 40cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked No | 18c | 81.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x941e…9775backed No | 43c | 76.35$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.83 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x490a…3b39backed Yes | 34c | 73.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.02 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +46%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ec…1cc8backed No | 34c | 70.77$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +35%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked Yes | 20c | 70$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddbc…28c3backed No | 43c | 65$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.95 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.31per pick | 56cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…9e81backed No | 20c | 59.72$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 81 | 38.3%31 W · 50 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 29c | 58.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.15 | 376 | 6.9%26 W · 350 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 41c | 58.56$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.9 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9bd…e007backed No | 43c | 58.49$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c04…8098backed Yes | 62c | 56.45$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.45 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +146.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28e9…d465backed Yes | 22c | 52.38$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.78per pick | 22cpaid | +348%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed0…9c4fbacked No | 47c | 52$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.58 | 118 | 45.8%54 W · 64 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c15…45a0backed Yes | 54c | 50.8$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.23 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -15%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd33c…40f1backed No | 73c | 49.46$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d2a…9ee3backed No | 40c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 55cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2156…b735backed Yes | 50c | 39.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.82 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +65.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0540…4e0cbacked Yes | 69c | 39.38$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.18 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b49…2a97backed Yes | 45c | 33.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.33 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.21per pick | 61cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36bf…2864backed Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 144 | 29.9%43 W · 101 L | +14.2wins | +0.10per pick | 20cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0115…ac79backed No | 64c | 23.48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a91…5769backed Yes | 76c | 20.63$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.91 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e27…d603backed Yes | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8855…6499backed Yes | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7191…c3a7backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in F1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Charles Leclerc finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix?this page
- Will Andrea Kimi Antonelli finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix?Yes won
- Will Arvid Lindblad finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix?No won
- Will Esteban Ocon finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix?No won
- Will Franco Colapinto finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix?No won
- Will George Russell finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix?No won
- Will Lando Norris finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix?No won
- Will Lewis Hamilton finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix?No won
- Will Liam Lawson finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix?No won
- Will Max Verstappen finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix?No won
- Will Oliver Bearman finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix?No won
- Will Oscar Piastri finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix?Yes won
- Will Pierre Gasly finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.