F1 · resolved market
Will George Russell finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x357cfdcfc63db3f78631d980c789d28dd40af27b3dc11d49f6d6b0385248d2d3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- F1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,320
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,766
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,320 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in F1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in F1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked No | 9c | 1,995$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,815.86 | 208 | 43.3%90 W · 118 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7681…ac03backed Yes | 32c | 1,111$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.69 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x661d…4dc6backed Yes | 42c | 721.09$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.01 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x064a…6007backed No | 61c | 654.89$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.89 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7c0…f389backed No | 36c | 586.11$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$376.46 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…45eebacked No | 64c | 545.53$349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.8 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc30f…b556backed Yes | 79c | 508.08$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +27%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5452…d448backed No | 13c | 406.66$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352.66 | 56 | 62.5%35 W · 21 L | +7.2wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe4a4…ebccbacked Yes | 4c | 389.53$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.58 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 11cpaid | +194.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36bf…2864backed Yes | 20c | 359.98$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 144 | 29.9%43 W · 101 L | +14.2wins | +0.10per pick | 20cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 11c | 354.09$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d9d…992bbacked Yes | 43c | 344.73$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.83 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe66e…946bbacked No | 15c | 334.33$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.33 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0979…fc8abacked Yes | 4c | 300$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8969…a944backed Yes | 35c | 282.35$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed No | 36c | 262.53$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.95 | 101 | 28.7%29 W · 72 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95ef…ff92backed Yes | 32c | 235.78$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ce9…0cf5backed No | 33c | 214.16$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.44 | 118 | 36.4%43 W · 75 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…9e81backed No | 69c | 207$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.04 | 81 | 38.3%31 W · 50 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd163…6c37backed Yes | 60c | 200$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 7c | 200$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 25 | 8%2 W · 23 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed Yes | 27c | 175.42$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.14 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2156…b735backed No | 75c | 132.53$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.53 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +65.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x027c…b158backed Yes | 9c | 126.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.36 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67f4…f91bbacked No | 16c | 125$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.30per pick | 20cpaid | +141.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe9d2…7ad6backed No | 46c | 115.39$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.06 | 100 | 65%65 W · 35 L | +20.3wins | +0.20per pick | 45cpaid | +66.6%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xa19d…3909backed No | 11c | 113.48$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +418.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce3f…67c9backed Yes | 12c | 111.04$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.53 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.35per pick | 40cpaid | +75.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9e3…706fbacked Yes | 53c | 107.13$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.28 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4f…728abacked No | 47c | 104.1$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.38 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb775…36f5backed No | 33c | 101.18$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.18 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab30…379fbacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89c6…7961backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 34 | 20.6%7 W · 27 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb37…ff74backed Yes | 61c | 99.99$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef1…7127backed Yes | 56c | 95$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.92 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3a9…0508backed No | 62c | 80.65$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.65 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf584…2497backed Yes | 33c | 77.91$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.71 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | +155.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe64d…5e09backed Yes | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed Yes | 21c | 68.65$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.37 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 16cpaid | +28%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8105…955abacked No | 29c | 65$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Yes | 47c | 62.25$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.09 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd0c8…e944backed Yes | 48c | 61.55$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.38 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcda6…3f07backed Yes | 59c | 59.61$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.17 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | +25%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xceb7…8b33backed No | 60c | 54.08$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.88 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8482…3f7abacked No | 47c | 53.1$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.4 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.21per pick | 37cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4411…3d06backed No | 47c | 49.42$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.19 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 25c | 47.06$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.3 | 63 | 25.4%16 W · 47 L | -8.9wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8e34…a413backed No | 45c | 44.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.57 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked Yes | 71c | 40.22$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.65 | 99 | 35.4%35 W · 64 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x917b…e433backed No | 54c | 38.74$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.81 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8de4…67a8backed No | 58c | 35.25$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.71 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 54cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ea8…077dbacked No | 57c | 34.05$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.67 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 47c | 34.01$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.87 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac8…990abacked Yes | 76c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 76cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2b6…d7cebacked No | 59c | 28.79$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.81 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c94…6ba9backed No | 64c | 28.13$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.13 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.20per pick | 47cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f5c…9e02backed No | 59c | 25.71$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.61 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.19per pick | 53cpaid | +21%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cdd…3e97backed Yes | 56c | 23.95$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.43 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -2.6wins | -0.15per pick | 62cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4a76…a671backed No | 62c | 21.11$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.33per pick | 42cpaid | +54.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x49d7…1635backed Yes | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Yes | 68c | 19.72$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.41 | 60 | 50%30 W · 30 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0828…5cfebacked No | 56c | 19.29$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.53 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76a1…b226backed Yes | 74c | 17.66$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in F1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will George Russell finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix?this page
- Will Andrea Kimi Antonelli finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix?Yes won
- Will Arvid Lindblad finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix?No won
- Will Charles Leclerc finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix?Yes won
- Will Esteban Ocon finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix?No won
- Will Franco Colapinto finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix?No won
- Will Lando Norris finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix?No won
- Will Lewis Hamilton finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix?No won
- Will Liam Lawson finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix?No won
- Will Max Verstappen finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix?No won
- Will Oliver Bearman finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix?No won
- Will Oscar Piastri finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix?Yes won
- Will Pierre Gasly finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.