TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: NIP vs Liquid (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Group B

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Liquidof NIP, Liquid
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,436,761

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,436,761 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 799 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9750…263dbacked Liquid45c88,213$40,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48,213.33036.7%11 W · 19 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-13.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa5ea…d96abacked NIP55c47,013$25,857 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25,856.9842440.3%171 W · 253 L-12.5wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked NIP54c34,780$18,783 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,783.211,71446.7%801 W · 913 L+1.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf31b…241bbacked NIP18c20,378$3,594 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,593.8322927.5%63 W · 166 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-9.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f97…4059backed NIP55c18,216$10,016 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,015.9346149.9%230 W · 231 L-1.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa69d…509bbacked Liquid46c18,000$8,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,749.9619757.4%113 W · 84 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2560…0b02backed Liquid45c17,749$7,952 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,796.5322448.7%109 W · 115 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-9.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xada5…c2a4backed NIP26c17,670$4,574 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,574.083135.5%11 W · 20 L-3.4wins-0.11per pick47cpaid-32.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed NIP71c17,040$12,084 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,084.295,26231.3%1,647 W · 3,615 L-381.6wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-37.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe262…4097backed Liquid32c15,513$4,987 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,526.064537.8%17 W · 28 L-3.1wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-19.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbedb…3b26backed NIP70c15,000$10,449 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,449.021838.9%7 W · 11 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-13.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x562b…f85fbacked NIP74c12,096$8,901 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,901.445855.2%32 W · 26 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+5.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x21ec…5348backed Liquid63c11,541$7,265 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,275.9672453.7%389 W · 335 L+11.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf394…cdb1backed Liquid46c10,873$5,051 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,822.186650%33 W · 33 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-2.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbf5e…4189backed NIP49c10,801$5,314 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,313.6733452.1%174 W · 160 L+10.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+1.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe64f…7d71backed NIP54c10,000$5,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,4003855.3%21 W · 17 L+1.8wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+13.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x098b…1fa5backed Liquid43c10,000$4,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,699.9112441.1%51 W · 73 L-4.0wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-12.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdcaf…e271backed NIP55c9,998$5,499 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,498.6737946.4%176 W · 203 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Liquid50c9,637$4,789 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,848.533,25650.3%1,637 W · 1,619 L+97.8wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb7f5…c669backed Liquid46c9,148$4,203 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,944.9767041.8%280 W · 390 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x61fe…0956backed Liquid78c7,554$5,865 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,689.3410663.2%67 W · 39 L+10.5wins+0.10per pick53cpaid+7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf7c7…620cbacked NIP19c7,445$1,432 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,431.6314144%62 W · 79 L+0.3wins0.00per pick44cpaid+4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed NIP25c7,409$1,879 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,879.492,05741.5%853 W · 1,204 L-50.1wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-16.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0dcf…c556backed NIP55c7,306$4,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,00023839.9%95 W · 143 L-11.0wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-13.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x77f6…dbd1backed Liquid45c7,229$3,252 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,977.2517240.7%70 W · 102 L-9.3wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-12.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x081e…f76ebacked NIP56c7,014$3,926 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,926.1781751.7%422 W · 395 L-6.0wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2d73…044bbacked NIP57c6,697$3,814 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,813.915441.6%64 W · 90 L-3.8wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-16.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf988…d63bbacked Liquid47c6,300$2,961 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,338.9935850.8%182 W · 176 L+11.1wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xadfa…324ebacked NIP55c6,218$3,420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,419.9636152.6%190 W · 171 L+13.7wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1341…0853backed Liquid42c6,052$2,525 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,527.0233043.3%143 W · 187 L+1.5wins0.00per pick43cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked NIP26c5,948$1,551 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,550.561,61145.4%731 W · 880 L+30.0wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-14.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7714…b814backed NIP77c5,429$4,176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,176.129551.6%49 W · 46 L-3.1wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-9.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc9de…c026backed Liquid44c5,331$2,346 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,985.361546.7%7 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid+4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb693…cfc9backed Liquid33c5,265$1,726 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,538.8512154.5%66 W · 55 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x40f8…327dbacked NIP56c5,000$2,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,8008654.7%47 W · 39 L+4.8wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+8.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked NIP55c5,000$2,750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,75014934.9%52 W · 97 L-14.1wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-21.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xa1d2…6adebacked Liquid47c5,000$2,350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,6503100%3 W · 0 L+1.8wins+0.59per pick41cpaid+149%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7645…3117backed Liquid44c5,000$2,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,799.9971645.9%329 W · 387 L-3.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Liquid63c4,941$3,094 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,846.582,32655.7%1,296 W · 1,030 L+44.8wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-9.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x78a2…d0a5backed NIP56c4,616$2,588 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,58813546.7%63 W · 72 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked NIP25c4,494$1,119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,119.221,05449%516 W · 538 L+38.1wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-10.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf8ab…13a1backed Liquid40c4,493$1,818 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,675.736747.8%32 W · 35 L-6.6wins-0.10per pick58cpaid-16.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x04fe…3688backed NIP54c4,439$2,406 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,406.041266.7%8 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+12.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x14a0…22bbbacked NIP66c4,424$2,905 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,905.251,39365.9%918 W · 475 L+26.8wins+0.02per pick64cpaid+1.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0caf…91adbacked Liquid67c4,303$2,899 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,404.4312465.3%81 W · 43 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3cab…2189backed Liquid45c4,296$1,912 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,383.551266.7%8 W · 4 L+1.8wins+0.15per pick51cpaid+35.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbfdf…8e02backed NIP55c4,289$2,372 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,37224935.7%89 W · 160 L-14.6wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-15.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8dd1…5a9bbacked Liquid47c4,255$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,255.3220458.3%119 W · 85 L-10.4wins-0.05per pick63cpaid-7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6978…9897backed Liquid47c4,227$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,226.9812449.2%61 W · 63 L-7.1wins-0.06per pick55cpaid-9.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xab75…cce0backed NIP57c4,220$2,406 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,405.581442.9%6 W · 8 L-1.0wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-21.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Liquid53c4,174$2,228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,945.362,22141.3%917 W · 1,304 L-22.6wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-19.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x182d…73e9backed Liquid34c4,001$1,340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,660.5578639.4%310 W · 476 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe59c…4da7backed NIP55c3,956$2,159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,159.3915264.5%98 W · 54 L+6.0wins+0.04per pick61cpaid+9.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x87da…53d1backed NIP54c3,789$2,046 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,04637346.4%173 W · 200 L-16.6wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-9.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbc67…5286backed Liquid58c3,711$2,145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,565.321,03361.6%636 W · 397 L+87.2wins+0.08per pick53cpaid+11.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x81d4…0c51backed Liquid46c3,493$1,601 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,891.6955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.11per pick44cpaid+26.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked NIP31c3,462$1,064 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,063.987,89250.5%3,983 W · 3,909 L+182.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0539…46c9backed NIP54c3,420$1,847 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,846.8250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.20per pick30cpaid+733.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xda5f…2e9bbacked Liquid45c3,345$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,845.3527452.9%145 W · 129 L-8.0wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-5.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe501…5c4fbacked NIP55c3,288$1,808 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,808.4650%3 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick53cpaid0%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed NIP26c3,126$819 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$819.0888746.7%414 W · 473 L+8.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-15.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7791…af80backed NIP55c3,100$1,706 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,705.5837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-17.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x22d0…6293backed Liquid46c3,034$1,396 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,638.24555.6%25 W · 20 L+2.6wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+18.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd7cb…4088backed Liquid45c2,911$1,310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,601.295347.2%25 W · 28 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-11.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1dfa…190bbacked NIP54c2,898$1,565 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,564.921172.7%8 W · 3 L+3.4wins+0.31per pick42cpaid+117.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x3704…0e84backed NIP55c2,857$1,559 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,558.5220944%92 W · 117 L-11.9wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-14.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd7cf…a603backed NIP54c2,839$1,533 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,533.163056.7%17 W · 13 L-2.0wins-0.07per pick63cpaid-13.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x567e…e8fbbacked Liquid45c2,832$1,264 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,567.8821939.7%87 W · 132 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-23.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x52ec…a6f3backed Liquid31c2,830$865 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,964.946949.7%233 W · 236 L-14.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8f69…7df1backed Liquid45c2,795$1,268 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,527.1875350.5%380 W · 373 L+16.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5d58…9a15backed NIP64c2,786$1,772 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,771.7114441.7%60 W · 84 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-9.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca9b…573fbacked Liquid38c2,761$1,043 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,718.143100%3 W · 0 L+1.8wins+0.59per pick41cpaid+177.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2302…d6d2backed Liquid26c2,523$660 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,862.3724544.5%109 W · 136 L-8.2wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-16.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6239…1d79backed Liquid47c2,501$1,175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,325.4920946.9%98 W · 111 L-9.3wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-8.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb7b3…9573backed NIP49c2,466$1,205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,204.8446345.6%211 W · 252 L-6.1wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaebf…e1cabacked Liquid52c2,333$1,205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,128.1835940.4%145 W · 214 L-15.9wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-11.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1064…f153backed NIP53c2,310$1,234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,234.216149.1%79 W · 82 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x583f…2dabbacked NIP54c2,276$1,239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,238.754928.6%14 W · 35 L-3.8wins-0.08per pick36cpaid-43%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfbc2…514cbacked NIP4c2,260$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1004645.7%21 W · 25 L+3.3wins+0.07per pick38cpaid+25.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1e85…3015backed NIP78c2,187$1,706 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,706.028563.5%54 W · 31 L+9.2wins+0.11per pick53cpaid+35%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x8e8c…65ddbacked NIP55c2,054$1,124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,124.4384454.3%458 W · 386 L+4.6wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x12d9…01bbbacked NIP22c2,000$430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43061228.9%177 W · 435 L-9.2wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-13.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbd09…a188backed Liquid45c2,000$900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,10019645.4%89 W · 107 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-11.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb9ab…f282backed Liquid43c2,000$860 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,139.981,08050.9%550 W · 530 L+38.2wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x733d…1ae7backed Liquid44c2,000$880 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,119.984242.9%18 W · 24 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x78de…b08bbacked NIP54c1,918$1,036 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,035.611747.1%8 W · 9 L-2.2wins-0.13per pick60cpaid-31%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x31b0…8bf3backed Liquid45c1,900$855 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0454136.6%15 W · 26 L-5.5wins-0.13per pick50cpaid-30.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xc5ac…2a18backed Liquid44c1,897$834 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,062.0925147.8%120 W · 131 L+9.5wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5b64…eaf4backed Liquid69c1,894$1,301 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$592.7613446.3%62 W · 72 L-3.9wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-14.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4e8f…57c7backed Liquid45c1,847$827 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,020.322751.9%14 W · 13 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+12.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc939…6e0fbacked NIP56c1,792$1,006 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,005.799044.4%40 W · 50 L+3.1wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+8.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2c78…aad1backed Liquid46c1,786$816 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$969.6838456.3%216 W · 168 L-6.3wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6c0e…35f8backed NIP54c1,773$957 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$957.424250%21 W · 21 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc25…4fa8backed NIP53c1,763$934 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$934.1713453%71 W · 63 L-5.2wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-10%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5f79…f7f7backed NIP53c1,700$904 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$903.5510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed NIP52c1,680$881 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$880.7860748.1%292 W · 315 L+7.3wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1fa8…c667backed NIP53c1,665$889 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$889.112133.3%7 W · 14 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-20.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7786…c005backed NIP19c1,643$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32022142.1%93 W · 128 L-13.2wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-15.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xda32…04a1backed NIP39c1,600$630 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63031444.9%141 W · 173 L+9.0wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-0.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x861f…a189backed Liquid46c1,556$721 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$835.2892152.6%484 W · 437 L+16.3wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.