CS2 · resolved market
Map Handicap: NIP (-1.5) vs Liquid (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x713411887054fbf4017a04430d940752551a5a6b2f0a25428b5be67c49d7463c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Liquidof NIP, Liquid
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,340
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,340 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbedb…3b26backed NIP | 56c | 5,000$2,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,800 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e04…28a9backed Liquid | 44c | 5,000$2,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,800 | 366 | 45.4%166 W · 200 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b87…6a47backed Liquid | 74c | 1,686$1,250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$435.6 | 130 | 59.2%77 W · 53 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked NIP | 25c | 747.59$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.9 | 1,144 | 49.4%565 W · 579 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Liquid | 69c | 426.71$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.68 | 154 | 36.4%56 W · 98 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked NIP | 25c | 398.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.58 | 239 | 32.2%77 W · 162 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa474…32cbbacked NIP | 32c | 321$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.72 | 258 | 46.1%119 W · 139 L | +9.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d8a…5201backed NIP | 30c | 306.22$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.87 | 552 | 36.2%200 W · 352 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcc0…6872backed NIP | 27c | 285.48$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.08 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd4…ce48backed NIP | 30c | 271.61$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.73 | 96 | 46.9%45 W · 51 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa3…9b44backed NIP | 31c | 216.61$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.89 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe501…5c4fbacked Liquid | 69c | 215.23$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.72 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd571…d24abacked NIP | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 35cpaid | -40%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba05…f8c0backed NIP | 27c | 142.73$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.58 | 972 | 30%292 W · 680 L | -23.7wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Liquid | 68c | 130.25$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.42 | 1,714 | 46.7%801 W · 913 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1349…dc1fbacked Liquid | 70c | 107.14$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.14 | 94 | 57.4%54 W · 40 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1554…3b03backed Liquid | 62c | 97.01$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.01 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0659…d74dbacked Liquid | 64c | 91.47$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.2 | 980 | 52.4%514 W · 466 L | +26.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4177…a2b4backed NIP | 36c | 84.44$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,248 | 41.3%516 W · 732 L | +5.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa02b…70d6backed Liquid | 35c | 68.29$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.07 | 178 | 57.3%102 W · 76 L | +27.9wins | +0.16per pick | 42cpaid | +47%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f5…57e2backed Liquid | 70c | 65.83$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.75 | 331 | 56.5%187 W · 144 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed NIP | 39c | 54.93$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.37 | 2,434 | 44.6%1,085 W · 1,349 L | -64.0wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6f7…a146backed Liquid | 72c | 50.25$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.16 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb503…7552backed NIP | 50c | 40.18$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.09 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93dc…3728backed NIP | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 499 | 47.5%237 W · 262 L | -11.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Liquid | 70c | 29.93$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.94 | 527 | 55.8%294 W · 233 L | +23.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1512…68f3backed NIP | 79c | 14.73$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.64 | 291 | 53.6%156 W · 135 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Map Handicap: NIP (-1.5) vs Liquid (+1.5)this page
- Counter-Strike: NIP vs Liquid (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Group BLiquid won
- Counter-Strike: NIP vs Liquid - Map 1 WinnerNIP won
- Counter-Strike: NIP vs Liquid - Map 2 WinnerLiquid won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.