TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

First Round Pool C: Japan vs. Australia

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Japanof Japan, Australia
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$664,030

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $664,030 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 132 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb3cf…0ebdbacked Australia3c268,412$8,212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,21214724.5%36 W · 111 L-0.3wins0.00per pick25cpaid+6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b25…ef0fbacked Australia1c48,325$293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$292.861010%1 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick14cpaid-21.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd995…2b51backed Australia8c35,372$2,798 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,797.55220%0 W · 22 L-4.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xf18d…9863backed Australia0c27,227$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.72128.3%1 W · 11 L-1.4wins-0.11per pick20cpaid-64.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe542…0a37backed Australia0c18,376$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.386524.6%16 W · 49 L+3.3wins+0.05per pick20cpaid+49.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Australia9c13,722$1,222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,222.0185235.8%305 W · 547 L-23.9wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-25.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x06b5…cab4backed Australia0c10,858$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4040%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xada5…db70backed Australia5c8,597$461 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$461.085442.6%23 W · 31 L-3.0wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8fba…d08abacked Australia30c8,232$2,470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,469.5453150.5%268 W · 263 L+19.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Australia0c7,000$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.6336.1%2 W · 31 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick3cpaid+66.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa596…1d4cbacked Australia0c5,094$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.82333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.20per pick13cpaid+64.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Australia1c4,688$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.343929.4%37 W · 355 L+1.5wins0.00per pick9cpaid-40.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0571…78bebacked Australia6c4,506$291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$290.781040%4 W · 6 L+1.2wins+0.12per pick28cpaid+13.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xecfc…cd05backed Australia5c4,307$227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$226.5420548.3%99 W · 106 L-5.3wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4198…d2afbacked Australia6c3,717$236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$236.3250%0 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa842…ab57backed Australia16c3,352$520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$519.57771.4%5 W · 2 L+2.5wins+0.35per pick36cpaid+79.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5000…02a3backed Australia0c3,200$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.480%0 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0044…cb2cbacked Australia6c2,977$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.722924.1%7 W · 22 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+30.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x86c8…c867backed Japan67c2,949$1,980 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$969.183250%16 W · 16 L+4.4wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+59%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x30ec…21a0backed Japan70c2,866$1,997 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$869.05540%2 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-30.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x40f9…3337backed Australia0c2,670$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.331030%3 W · 7 L+1.2wins+0.12per pick18cpaid+93.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd035…f165backed Australia6c2,263$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.3611331.9%36 W · 77 L-7.2wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-29.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed Australia5c2,173$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.6831038.4%119 W · 191 L+9.7wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+28.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1795…46efbacked Australia8c1,973$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x768f…8a9bbacked Australia15c1,605$249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$248.7312253.3%65 W · 57 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc9f…905bbacked Australia4c1,600$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5636729.4%108 W · 259 L+5.6wins+0.02per pick28cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe2e1…c20abacked Japan70c1,446$1,012 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$434.4510353.4%55 W · 48 L+5.6wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+0.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc30e…0dc3backed Australia2c1,360$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$291010%1 W · 9 L-1.4wins-0.14per pick24cpaid-51.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc371…1e28backed Australia8c1,333$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.3814039.3%55 W · 85 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-21.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4464…95d4backed Australia3c1,300$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.41030%3 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-32.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x16ef…7e70backed Australia1c1,197$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21c2…6749backed Japan70c1,183$833 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$350.278644.2%38 W · 48 L-5.0wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-26.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Australia5c1,166$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.831414.3%2 W · 12 L+1.1wins+0.08per pick7cpaid+201%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x07dc…4ff3backed Australia1c1,157$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.22per pick11cpaid+50.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xef59…2757backed Australia1c1,085$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick17cpaid-37.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x07dd…0876backed Australia4c1,044$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.95248.1%25 W · 27 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid+11.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c77…402cbacked Australia1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.8wins+0.23per pick40cpaid+35.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x13d6…926ebacked Australia6c999.99$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$557128.2%20 W · 51 L+2.5wins+0.03per pick25cpaid+20.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfc13…ff2cbacked Australia10c994.77$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.5120%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6cdf…5bc1backed Australia2c961.13$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.43650%3 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-19.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Australia3c923.2$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.792,38943.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L-25.4wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-11.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6709…af18backed Australia3c888.22$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.8420%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6027…4320backed Australia5c873.74$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.4484049.4%415 W · 425 L+8.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x528f…2101backed Japan70c714.29$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$214.296653%35 W · 31 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3886…c111backed Australia5c675$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.5633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.15per pick18cpaid+285.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf133…4f59backed Japan80c640.35$509 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.272161.9%13 W · 8 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick59cpaid-1.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c65…50a9backed Japan70c573.3$399 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$174.41366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.32per pick34cpaid+87.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0204…0e31backed Australia6c549.48$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3518048.3%87 W · 93 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+18.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7f2d…fbf5backed Australia9c538.33$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.568247.6%39 W · 43 L-4.2wins-0.05per pick53cpaid+28.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc363…9fd8backed Japan65c536.58$351 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$185.66366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick54cpaid-4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x344b…f7fcbacked Japan70c536$374 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162.199241.3%38 W · 54 L-4.2wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-26.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdbb8…f7debacked Australia6c523.66$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.182025%5 W · 15 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick20cpaid+76.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1624…bf63backed Australia22c522.11$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.5423036.1%83 W · 147 L-11.2wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-28.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x48e3…c148backed Australia4c500$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.51520%3 W · 12 L-2.2wins-0.15per pick35cpaid-52.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xddd3…dba6backed Australia4c500$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.52045%9 W · 11 L+2.8wins+0.14per pick31cpaid-1.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2358…8986backed Japan79c464.29$366 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.434245.2%19 W · 23 L-5.3wins-0.13per pick58cpaid-9.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x8de5…e8bbbacked Australia26c463.69$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.291346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-32.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd37a…2358backed Australia5c449.08$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.4540846.1%188 W · 220 L-10.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-7.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4c4e…b978backed Australia4c444.4$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.891225%3 W · 9 L+1.0wins+0.09per pick16cpaid-12.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7572…f4bbbacked Australia7c442.01$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31862.5%5 W · 3 L+2.5wins+0.31per pick31cpaid+64.6%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x60c2…9d17backed Australia3c438.14$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.2930%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2613…b219backed Japan70c429.83$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.83333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-52.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc998…f060backed Australia10c422.77$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.29554.7%52 W · 43 L-0.1wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe75a…5a83backed Japan70c400$279 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121580%4 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.23per pick57cpaid+31%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x079f…a9d1backed Japan70c386$270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.615944.1%26 W · 33 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-25.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9729…e247backed Australia6c374.42$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.34650%3 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.12per pick38cpaid-10%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x22a6…8fb7backed Japan70c371.15$259 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.09366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.19per pick48cpaid-4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x768c…6b93backed Australia5c365$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.25333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.25per pick9cpaid+107.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcf2d…e660backed Australia10c349.43$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$353158.1%18 W · 13 L+4.6wins+0.15per pick43cpaid+29.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x22a4…63ebbacked Australia8c325$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.251,20558.8%708 W · 497 L+31.1wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1c06…3b44backed Australia20c320.83$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.7210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe2c3…16ccbacked Australia32c309.68$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5f48…cd03backed Australia5c308.78$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.23728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.10per pick38cpaid+4.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaadc…a559backed Japan74c304.47$225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.3966.7%6 W · 3 L+2.5wins+0.27per pick39cpaid+89.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5356…8429backed Australia6c299.98$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.630%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6392…fd6ebacked Australia5c291.2$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.3420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b3a…2841backed Australia4c262.81$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.5649450%247 W · 247 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf30a…61fbbacked Australia12c257.01$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.555847.7%266 W · 292 L-11.6wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-12.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1399…0483backed Australia33c256.02$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.38250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-13.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ea6…6d01backed Australia4c250.51$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11825%2 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-45.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x32d2…2126backed Australia30c249.35$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-23.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8441…7925backed Australia12c230.49$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.521330.8%4 W · 9 L-2.3wins-0.18per pick49cpaid-53.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x460d…9d5fbacked Japan70c215.28$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.281136.4%4 W · 7 L+1.6wins+0.14per pick22cpaid+14%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Australia5c214$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.3147745.7%218 W · 259 L+7.6wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-17.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x87a4…953ebacked Australia32c206.57$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.5747348.8%231 W · 242 L-22.0wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-10.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0174…f66fbacked Australia34c205.09$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.9650%0 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xaea0…0decbacked Japan69c202$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.987753.2%41 W · 36 L+2.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-9.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd68c…025abacked Japan67c200$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$671100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+50.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf9a0…f5efbacked Australia6c196.76$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.92250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.27per pick23cpaid+22%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbe31…222abacked Australia6c195.16$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.14per pick36cpaid-23.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe6ad…85f7backed Australia8c177.41$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15475%3 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.38per pick37cpaid+76.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbda6…b411backed Japan80c176.64$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.52560%3 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+40.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x07b2…1960backed Japan70c172.38$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.06333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-52.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0eca…c56abacked Australia17c172.06$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.5449942.9%214 W · 285 L-31.5wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-20.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4f90…a473backed Japan66c163.3$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.161060%6 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8039…14c4backed Japan66c150.38$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.38742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick48cpaid+4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e9b…5f5abacked Australia20c150$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3030%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5ba4…6a8cbacked Australia11c150$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.2812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick15cpaid-34.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x72f4…3d96backed Japan76c145.5$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.077245.8%33 W · 39 L-7.0wins-0.10per pick56cpaid-15.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xef0d…0dcebacked Australia11c140$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.4520%1 W · 4 L0.0wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-35.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.