TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x5ba4…6a8c

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
96
Categories scored
11
Categories below 50
8

Best Category: Champions League, grading 52 out of 100 (+0.02 per pick).

Best Category Champions League at 52 out of 100; worst Fifa International at 47.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 15, 2026, EDT339.1%3 W · 30 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick14cpaid-56.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 33 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.1
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$21.4
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.8
Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 1 Korea Republic?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$46.48
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 1 Mexico?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$50.7
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$96Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$95.7
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Australia?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$39
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Australia?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$39
Exact Score: United States 0 - 0 Australia?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$18
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Qatar?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 1 Colombia?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 1 Colombia?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 0 Colombia?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 2 Panama?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Exact Score: England 3 - 3 Croatia?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+488.2%+$488.24
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Senegal?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$35
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$35
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT+354.5%+$177.27
Showing 25 of 33 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved May 19, 2026, EDT1520%3 W · 12 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Premier League — the 15 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$33
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$47Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT+132.6%+$62.18
Will AFC Bournemouth vs. Manchester City FC end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$44Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT+354.5%+$156
Exact Score: Arsenal FC 1 - 0 Burnley FC?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2026, EDT+809.1%+$178
Will Arsenal FC vs. Burnley FC end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$27
Will Aston Villa FC vs. Liverpool FC end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$28
Exact Score: Aston Villa FC 1 - 1 Liverpool FC?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$14
Will Manchester City FC vs. Crystal Palace FC end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.7
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-03-21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.46
Spread: Fulham FC (-2.5)backed Fulham FC · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$10.8
Spread: Brighton & Hove Albion FC (-2.5)backed Brighton & Hove Albion FC · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$10
Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-01-26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 26, 2026, EST-100%-$28.5
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-01-25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2026, EST-100%-$10.5
Spread: Arsenal FC (-1.5)backed Arsenal FC · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2026, EST-100%-$36.5
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-01-25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2026, EST-100%-$10
All 15 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Jun 14, 2026, EDT1315.4%2 W · 11 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick14cpaid-42.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
NBA — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$109Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT+235.6%+$256.93
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$382Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$382.38
Spread: Rockets (-4.5)backed Rockets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$65Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$64.99
Mavericks vs. Sunsbacked Mavericks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.18
Grizzlies vs. Nuggetsbacked Grizzlies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.99
Bucks vs. Jazzbacked Bucks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$12
Spurs vs. Kingsbacked Kings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.5
76ers vs. Nuggetsbacked 76ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.9
Bulls vs. Lakersbacked Bulls · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.27
Warriors vs. Rocketsbacked Warriors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST+316.7%+$38
Mavericks vs. Magicbacked Mavericks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 5, 2026, EST-100%-$12.5
Mavericks vs. Hornetsbacked Mavericks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$10
Nets vs. Heatbacked Nets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$10
All 13 picks, newest first.
Europa Conference League Inactivelast resolved May 20, 2026, EDT90%0 W · 9 L-1.0wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Europa Conference League — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Europa Conference League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Exact Score: SC Freiburg 1 - 1 Aston Villa FC?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$96Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$96
Exact Score: SC Freiburg 1 - 0 Aston Villa FC?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Exact Score: SC Freiburg 2 - 0 Aston Villa FC?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$31.98
Exact Score: SC Freiburg 2 - 1 Aston Villa FC?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$23
Exact Score: SC Freiburg 2 - 2 Aston Villa FC?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$54Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$54.43
Exact Score: SC Freiburg 3 - 3 Aston Villa FC?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.49
Will SC Freiburg win on 2026-05-20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$102Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$102
Will SC Freiburg vs. SC Braga end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$25
Will Aston Villa FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$25
All 9 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved May 30, 2026, EDT825%2 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick17cpaid+168%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Champions League — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MLB Inactivelast resolved Apr 22, 2026, EDT812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick15cpaid-34.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
MLB — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tennis Inactivelast resolved Apr 7, 2026, EDT50%0 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Tennis — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Middle East Inactivelast resolved Mar 15, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US forces enter Iran by March 14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$18
US forces enter Iran by March 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.7
All 2 picks, newest first.
Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Apr 7, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Connecticut Huskies vs. Michigan Wolverinesbacked Connecticut Huskies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$20.55
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ligue 1 Inactivelast resolved Apr 17, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Ligue 1 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ligue 1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spread: Toulouse FC (-1.5)backed Toulouse FC · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.8
All 1 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved May 12, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Commodities — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$25
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.