MLB · resolved market
First Round Pool C: Czechia vs. Australia
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9e0900b93b0ffe531fd19470df24ea2e3ee6d01eefeea228dc57f1655eb7ca53
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Australiaof Czechia, Australia
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,120
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,120 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe8ca…cccbbacked Czechia | 12c | 3,383$414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$413.84 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdcad…df78backed Australia | 78c | 2,548$1,997 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$550.51 | 109 | 30.3%33 W · 76 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Czechia | 7c | 2,213$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.94 | 1,456 | 42.7%622 W · 834 L | -39.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Czechia | 20c | 2,052$414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$413.78 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc44d…935cbacked Czechia | 14c | 1,329$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.04 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07dd…0876backed Czechia | 7c | 1,187$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.45 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4db5…5504backed Czechia | 21c | 900$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.44 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | +316.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Czechia | 10c | 799.89$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.97 | 80 | 42.5%34 W · 46 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Czechia | 13c | 780.6$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.83 | 477 | 45.7%218 W · 259 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e1…4656backed Czechia | 11c | 699.99$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Czechia | 18c | 584.3$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.73 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ce…7ec8backed Czechia | 14c | 499.98$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9d4…e1d2backed Czechia | 28c | 360$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a50…ea80backed Czechia | 15c | 336.4$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.46 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ef3…df7fbacked Czechia | 30c | 334.35$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 117 | 25.6%30 W · 87 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Czechia | 6c | 320.17$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 392 | 9.4%37 W · 355 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Czechia | 6c | 300$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1,360 | 44.3%602 W · 758 L | +45.8wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Czechia | 16c | 282.37$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.99 | 1,466 | 44.1%647 W · 819 L | +44.0wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf21b…894ebacked Czechia | 11c | 271.95$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40a…7e07backed Czechia | 7c | 238.18$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccd0…2222backed Czechia | 9c | 222.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 113 | 46.9%53 W · 60 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5afa…df73backed Czechia | 15c | 206.67$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.17per pick | 53cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Czechia | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +2.9wins | +0.12per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8aba…0b08backed Czechia | 22c | 181.82$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Czechia | 13c | 122.72$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.73 | 840 | 49.4%415 W · 425 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35f9…e09dbacked Czechia | 36c | 119.99$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.44 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 35cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked Czechia | 18c | 108.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.94 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ba4…6a8cbacked Czechia | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Australia | 75c | 87.99$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 2,203 | 50.3%1,108 W · 1,095 L | +29.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a8d…e12abacked Czechia | 16c | 80.63$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.42per pick | 25cpaid | +131.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x39d6…89abbacked Czechia | 21c | 60.6$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.74 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -35%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c6f…5f9cbacked Czechia | 33c | 60.01$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Australia | 74c | 57$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.9 | 447 | 45.6%204 W · 243 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74f9…ad71backed Australia | 74c | 33.78$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.78 | 71 | 49.3%35 W · 36 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81c0…8b96backed Australia | 67c | 16.94$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.62 | 17 | 82.4%14 W · 3 L | +3.9wins | +0.23per pick | 60cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c2…b14dbacked Australia | 72c | 15.67$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.45 | 1,149 | 48.9%562 W · 587 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.