TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xe9d4…e1d2

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
70
Categories scored
17
Categories below 50
10

Best Category: Asian League, grading 57 out of 100 (+0.07 per pick).

Best Category Asian League at 57 out of 100; worst Ncaa Basketball at 44.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Tennislast resolved Aug 24, 2026, EDT2245.5%10 W · 12 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick40cpaid+12.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Tennis — the 22 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Roehampton 2: Inaki Montes-De La Torre vs Oskari Paldaniusbacked Inaki Montes-De La Torre · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$967Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 24, 2026, EDT+98.8%+$955.18
Prague 2: Chun-Hsin Tseng vs Hynek Bartonbacked Hynek Barton · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$193Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$193
ITF M25 Idanha-a-Nova 2 Men: Artem Alekseychuk vs Tiago Boschmansbacked Artem Alekseychuk · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$1,463Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,463
ITF M25 Santander Men: Mikel Martinez vs Ian Lucca Cervantes Tomasbacked Mikel Martinez · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
ITF Rognac: Julio Cesar Porras vs Maxime Chazalbacked Julio Cesar Porras · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$592Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 22, 2026, EDT+335.5%+$1,986.26
ITF Las Palmas: Shannon Lam vs Eleonora Alvisibacked Shannon Lam · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$865Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 21, 2026, EDT+57.7%+$498.91
ITF Cordenons: Martina Trevisan vs Elena Ruxandra Berteabacked Martina Trevisan · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$1,330Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 21, 2026, EDT+38.9%+$517.22
Wimbledon ATP: Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Daniel Merida Aguilarbacked Camilo Ugo Carabelli · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$984Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$983.55
Piracicaba: Thiago Cigarran vs Santiago Rodriguez Tavernabacked Thiago Cigarran · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$137Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$137
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Roman Safiullin vs Jerome Kymbacked Jerome Kym · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$844Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$844.34
ITF Mungia-Laukariz: Pavlos Tsitsipas vs Ryan Nijboerbacked Ryan Nijboer · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$390Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+112.8%+$439.93
Royan: Leo Raquillet vs Pavel Kotovbacked Pavel Kotov · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$200
Libema Open: Daria Kasatkina vs Robin Montgomerybacked Robin Montgomery · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$377Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2026, EDT+316.7%+$1,194.12
Kosice: Lukas Pokorny vs Martin Krumichbacked Martin Krumich · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$345Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT+62.2%+$214.63
Wuning 2: Jie Cui vs Mikhail Kukushkinbacked Jie Cui · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$302Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$302.19
Set 1 Winner: Svrcina vs Blockxbacked Blockx · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 12, 2026, EDT+222.6%+$44.52
BNP Paribas Open, Qualification: Joanna Garland vs Taylor Townsendbacked Joanna Garland · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST-100%-$100
Ivashka vs. Manas: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 25, 2026, EST-100%-$10
Tigre: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Nicolas Kickerbacked Villanueva · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$59Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 19, 2026, EST+179.6%+$105.96
Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Antonia Ruzicbacked Rybakina · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$1,490Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 18, 2026, EST-100%-$1,490
Set Handicap: Kasatkina (-1.5) vs Siegemund (+1.5)backed Siegemund · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$116Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2026, EST-100%-$116.43
Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championships: Laura Siegemund vs Daria Kasatkinabacked Kasatkina · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$532Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2026, EST+54.2%+$288.72
All 22 picks, newest first.
CS2 Inactivelast resolved Mar 3, 2026, EST1216.7%2 W · 10 L-1.0wins-0.08per pick25cpaid-73.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
CS2 — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Counter-Strike: G2 Ares vs WW Team - Map 2 Winnerbacked WW Team · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$79Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$79
Counter-Strike: G2 Ares vs WW Team (BO3) - Exort Meteor Playoffsbacked WW Team · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$220Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$220
Games Total: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$1,122Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 27, 2026, EST-100%-$1,121.78
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Favbet (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #13 Group Stagebacked Team Nemesis · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$573Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 26, 2026, EST+66.7%+$381.73
Counter-Strike: MASONIC vs Acend (BO3) - European Pro League Series 4 Group Bbacked Acend · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$68Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 26, 2026, EST-100%-$68
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Vitality - Map 1 Winnerbacked GamerLegion · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 23, 2026, EST-100%-$200
Counter-Strike: Sangal vs FORZE Reload - Map 2 Winnerbacked FORZE Reload · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2026, EST-100%-$100
Counter-Strike: illwill vs MASONIC - Map 1 Winnerbacked MASONIC · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$152Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST-100%-$152
Games Total: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 29, 2025, EST-100%-$100
Counter-Strike: Misa Esports vs FOKUS (BO3)backed Misa Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$319Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 29, 2025, EST-100%-$319
Counter-Strike: 33 vs GenOne - Map 1 Winnerbacked 33 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$159Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2025, EST-100%-$158.65
Counter-Strike: Team Shadowkek vs CyberDynamo (BO3)backed Team Shadowkek · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$598Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 22, 2025, EST+51%+$304.57
All 12 picks, newest first.
Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Mar 10, 2026, EDT714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.6wins-0.23per pick38cpaid-71.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Lol Inactivelast resolved Feb 13, 2026, EST616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.14per pick31cpaid-58.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Lol — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Asian Leaguelast resolved Aug 15, 2026, EDT475%3 W · 1 L+1.9wins+0.48per pick27cpaid+194.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
Asian League — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Asian League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Cricket Inactivelast resolved May 8, 2026, EDT40%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Cricket — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Cricket, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Dota2 Inactivelast resolved Jan 20, 2026, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+148%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
Dota2 — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Dota2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Dota 2: (monkey) Business vs Zero Tenacity (BO3) - EPL Championship Playoffsbacked Zero Tenacity · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$400Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2026, EST+88.5%+$353.89
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Kalmychata (BO3)backed Kalmychata · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$150Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 24, 2025, EST+207.6%+$312.16
All 2 picks, newest first.
MLB Inactivelast resolved Apr 17, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
MLB — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
New York Mets vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 15.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$97Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 17, 2026, EDT+112.8%+$109.18
First Round Pool C: Czechia vs. Australiabacked Czechia · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST-100%-$100
All 2 picks, newest first.
Australian A League Inactivelast resolved Dec 26, 2025, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Australian A League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Australian A League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Valorant Inactivelast resolved Feb 24, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Valorant — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Valorant, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Valorant: ULF Esports vs UCAM Esports Club - Map 1 Winnerbacked ULF Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 24, 2026, EST-100%-$200
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs Fnatic (+1.5)backed Team Vitality · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2026, EST-100%-$200
All 2 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Dec 25, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.78per pick22cpaid+345.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
NBA — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 234.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$196Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 25, 2025, EST+345.9%+$677.98
All 1 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved Mar 1, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Premier League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Manchester United FC vs. Crystal Palace FC: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$886Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+72.4%+$641.59
All 1 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved Mar 18, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Champions League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
FC Barcelona vs. Newcastle United FC: O/U 4.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$360Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT+66.4%+$239.21
All 1 picks, newest first.
Euroleague Inactivelast resolved Mar 11, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Euroleague — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Euroleague, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Shandong Hi-Speed Kirin vs. Jiangsu Dragonsbacked Jiangsu Dragons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$54Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$54
All 1 picks, newest first.
UFC Inactivelast resolved Jun 27, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
UFC — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
UFC Fight Night: Javier Reyes vs. Kaan Ofli (Featherweight, Prelims)backed Javier Reyes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$754Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$753.88
All 1 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved Dec 22, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
NHL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Canadiens vs. Penguins: O/U 6.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$1,544Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 22, 2025, EST-100%-$1,544.45
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jun 8, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.79per pick79cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
France vs. Northern Ireland: Both Teams to Scorebacked No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$110Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$110
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.