Australian A League · resolved market
Will Newcastle United Jets FC vs. Macarthur FC end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6c8cdf5e313bb0e20a19f3190a45585a7e08f4db193ff151e9e7536dd6d012e1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Australian A Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,225
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,711
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,225 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Australian A League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Australian A League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x528e…5c74backed Yes | 31c | 1,829$573 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$572.87 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 23c | 1,715$396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$395.61 | 139 | 33.8%47 W · 92 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 48c | 1,489$719 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$769.7 | 334 | 44%147 W · 187 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d36…68fdbacked Yes | 66c | 1,479$982 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$982.15 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2575…bf1ebacked Yes | 24c | 1,167$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 76c | 1,151$875 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.33 | 478 | 50.8%243 W · 235 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked No | 35c | 999.99$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$649.99 | 120 | 55%66 W · 54 L | +12.6wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 52c | 997.07$517 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$517.24 | 228 | 52.2%119 W · 109 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x26e3…0b75backed Yes | 65c | 970.76$631 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$630.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 66c | 899.84$598 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.71 | 235 | 51.5%121 W · 114 L | +13.4wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed No | 77c | 767.23$588 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.13 | 117 | 50.4%59 W · 58 L | +7.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 73c | 676.17$492 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.34 | 466 | 44.8%209 W · 257 L | -23.0wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked No | 77c | 581.17$446 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.21 | 300 | 55.3%166 W · 134 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 77c | 501.8$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.84 | 988 | 44.4%439 W · 549 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf42a…8470backed Yes | 28c | 357.14$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8637…9657backed No | 73c | 338$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf3…50d9backed Yes | 27c | 277.96$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…eca0backed Yes | 19c | 247.24$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -3.2wins | -0.18per pick | 34cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ae…74c0backed Yes | 60c | 241.03$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | -6.2wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x823d…3d44backed Yes | 24c | 212.7$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0e9…5112backed Yes | 28c | 200$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.6wins | +0.18per pick | 46cpaid | +50.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed No | 64c | 184.09$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.16 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed No | 77c | 179$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.17 | 101 | 60.4%61 W · 40 L | +7.1wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x604d…4608backed Yes | 24c | 145.83$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Yes | 26c | 145.4$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.96 | 69 | 69.6%48 W · 21 L | +7.3wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x503d…cd16backed Yes | 29c | 137.93$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 59c | 136.43$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.42 | 305 | 36.1%110 W · 195 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9d4…e1d2backed Yes | 15c | 133.15$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…a835backed No | 43c | 116.28$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.28 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -2.7wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Yes | 10c | 113$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97c3…b479backed Yes | 26c | 110$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.7 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aae…419dbacked Yes | 59c | 99.99$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f3c…615dbacked Yes | 60c | 95.4$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.24 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e84…d31cbacked Yes | 23c | 85.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x588b…8593backed Yes | 24c | 83.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca60…5f6cbacked Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51ce…43fabacked Yes | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 61 | 26.2%16 W · 45 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 64c | 75$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.09 | 121 | 56.2%68 W · 53 L | +9.4wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7602…2775backed Yes | 37c | 73.14$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.87 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9887…79a8backed Yes | 64c | 62.02$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Yes | 38c | 60.1$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.78 | 168 | 65.5%110 W · 58 L | +22.1wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe48c…163abacked Yes | 29c | 58.62$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 75 | 48%36 W · 39 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa72e…3db9backed Yes | 26c | 57.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +3.4wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x51f7…ae1fbacked No | 64c | 41.6$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.98 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88b1…7eb6backed Yes | 26c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 47cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed No | 66c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.47 | 24 | 79.2%19 W · 5 L | +4.5wins | +0.19per pick | 61cpaid | +40%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9f13…1d59backed Yes | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46fb…83b1backed Yes | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd779…66b3backed No | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb16…9757backed Yes | 65c | 23.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 64cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…2cd1backed No | 76c | 22.68$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.44 | 60 | 80%48 W · 12 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 76cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4161…272dbacked Yes | 71c | 21.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce67…1275backed Yes | 79c | 15.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbecb…7824backed No | 77c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Australian A League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Newcastle United Jets FC vs. Macarthur FC end in a draw?this page
- Will Macarthur FC win on 2025-12-26?Yes won
- Will Newcastle United Jets FC win on 2025-12-26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.