Australian A League · resolved market
Will Macarthur FC win on 2025-12-26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1d28d721def82ee4ead599f3fbd3f3109283f4125bfdfbef2edbf6623a03395a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Australian A Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $65,494
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $77,103
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $65,494 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Australian A League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Australian A League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb1fe…9974backed No | 56c | 8,000$4,454 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,453.61 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked No | 50c | 4,353$2,160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,160.32 | 120 | 55%66 W · 54 L | +12.6wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8d36…68fdbacked Yes | 51c | 4,226$2,156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,069.65 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x528e…5c74backed Yes | 65c | 3,675$2,386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,289.15 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7cf4…20b3backed Yes | 51c | 3,157$1,623 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,534.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +94.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 60c | 2,498$1,510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,510.08 | 466 | 44.8%209 W · 257 L | -23.0wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 43c | 1,872$807 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$807.45 | 334 | 44%147 W · 187 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Yes | 48c | 1,500$720 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$780 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 26c | 1,353$358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$994.86 | 139 | 33.8%47 W · 92 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Yes | 20c | 1,056$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$843.25 | 117 | 50.4%59 W · 58 L | +7.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…ff0ebacked No | 50c | 996$498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$498 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe666…14f5backed Yes | 43c | 931.33$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$530.86 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.30per pick | 50cpaid | +73.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9752…5b36backed Yes | 49c | 809.43$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$414.89 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e14…2266backed Yes | 33c | 707.88$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$476.68 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +59.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 45c | 639.18$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$353.88 | 988 | 44.4%439 W · 549 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8887…c607backed Yes | 58c | 617.81$357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.81 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf54a…e25dbacked No | 53c | 570.37$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +3.1wins | +0.24per pick | 37cpaid | +61.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Yes | 30c | 552.3$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$387.17 | 235 | 51.5%121 W · 114 L | +13.4wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 26c | 546$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$405.83 | 121 | 56.2%68 W · 53 L | +9.4wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 25c | 535.41$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$399.43 | 300 | 55.3%166 W · 134 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x587b…2622backed No | 61c | 525.29$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.39 | 110 | 63.6%70 W · 40 L | +9.2wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7d43…bc5ebacked No | 72c | 469.43$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.99 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 45c | 408.52$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.11 | 228 | 52.2%119 W · 109 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x92d8…9762backed No | 10c | 388.13$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.01 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 13cpaid | +207%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8bd…df80backed Yes | 26c | 384.62$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.62 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06c2…184fbacked No | 48c | 229.99$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.4 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed No | 49c | 225.54$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.11 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5778…86c0backed No | 56c | 220$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd537…0f7cbacked Yes | 46c | 215.11$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +115.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdedc…8bcabacked Yes | 28c | 214.29$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.29 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +66.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4781…336dbacked No | 74c | 205.41$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152 | 90 | 65.6%59 W · 31 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2fa9…72dbbacked No | 45c | 200$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 38 | 60.5%23 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58e4…73f9backed Yes | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +148.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed No | 18c | 180.96$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.6 | 305 | 36.1%110 W · 195 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34ad…040abacked Yes | 22c | 179.73$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.73 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 16cpaid | +54.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2db3…667abacked Yes | 55c | 176.36$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.36 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60aa…0df0backed No | 10c | 168.1$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9e9…b8cfbacked Yes | 60c | 166.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x981c…7f14backed Yes | 51c | 164.09$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.9 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked No | 50c | 164$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.57 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f3f…959bbacked Yes | 28c | 146.43$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.43 | 59 | 33.9%20 W · 39 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5a2…c2c2backed Yes | 49c | 142.65$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.98 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6aa…8882backed Yes | 25c | 118.88$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.96 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | +4.3wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +48.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Yes | 46c | 118.79$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.55 | 24 | 79.2%19 W · 5 L | +4.5wins | +0.19per pick | 61cpaid | +40%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd094…271bbacked Yes | 27c | 117.67$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.9 | 76 | 31.6%24 W · 52 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x823d…3d44backed Yes | 48c | 106.55$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.55 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fca…6129backed No | 73c | 103$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.26 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab5f…4175backed Yes | 27c | 96$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.08 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +120.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c83…6f40backed No | 38c | 79.74$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 59 | 35.6%21 W · 38 L | -4.6wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x97c3…b479backed Yes | 47c | 71.92$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.39 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…eca0backed Yes | 16c | 68.87$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.87 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -3.2wins | -0.18per pick | 34cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4b33…8c31backed Yes | 45c | 66.13$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.64 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4c…2e02backed Yes | 78c | 64.49$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.49 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x457d…0e6cbacked Yes | 51c | 58.82$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 64c | 50.57$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.24 | 286 | 59.4%170 W · 116 L | +12.9wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbed0…3c7dbacked Yes | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x896a…7b9cbacked No | 75c | 50$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3a…1e7abacked Yes | 28c | 49.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.72per pick | 28cpaid | +262.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…6dd4backed No | 52c | 47.78$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf08b…9a7dbacked Yes | 50c | 44$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…11a2backed Yes | 56c | 43.37$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.95 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c25…f97cbacked Yes | 73c | 43.34$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa06b…d793backed Yes | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd779…66b3backed Yes | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d5f…7e6fbacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 113 | 51.3%58 W · 55 L | +11.6wins | +0.10per pick | 41cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x934f…5bd8backed No | 65c | 38.77$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x733e…c558backed No | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 47cpaid | +69.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd960…1adebacked Yes | 42c | 38.16$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.24 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 31cpaid | -70%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x88b1…7eb6backed Yes | 58c | 36.39$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.39 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 47cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4234…6b87backed Yes | 56c | 30.91$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17f3…c87fbacked No | 50c | 28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +69.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed No | 73c | 27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.71 | 69 | 55.1%38 W · 31 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc172…0b9ebacked Yes | 80c | 22$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb879…57c1backed Yes | 53c | 21.36$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +87.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe358…6878backed Yes | 71c | 21.24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2683…2be7backed No | 59c | 21.03$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.41 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x12f4…8706backed Yes | 55c | 20.14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +83.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed No | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e0…b300backed No | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3552…bbb2backed Yes | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Australian A League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Macarthur FC win on 2025-12-26?this page
- Will Newcastle United Jets FC vs. Macarthur FC end in a draw?No won
- Will Newcastle United Jets FC win on 2025-12-26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.