TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Lol · resolved market

LoL: Oh My God vs LNG Esports (BO3)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
LNG Esportsof Oh My God, LNG Esports
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$641,570
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$781,272

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $641,570 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 539 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb2e4…bc51backed LNG Esports56c35,678$19,936 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,742.078648.8%42 W · 44 L-0.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid-4.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x986b…bdc6backed LNG Esports77c30,000$23,064 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,936.361573.3%11 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick75cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed LNG Esports43c25,644$11,148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,495.741,63040.1%654 W · 976 L+48.3wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe795…8caebacked Oh My God47c22,308$10,526 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,525.7820354.7%111 W · 92 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-9.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xf5d0…d9e8backed LNG Esports54c22,090$11,943 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,147.3585746.3%397 W · 460 L+17.4wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x52ec…a6f3backed LNG Esports73c14,981$10,930 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,051.5481143.5%353 W · 458 L+30.0wins+0.04per pick40cpaid-7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7433…c66cbacked Oh My God25c14,086$3,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,5001625%4 W · 12 L-3.0wins-0.19per pick44cpaid-31.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6eb4…96b0backed Oh My God46c13,031$5,940 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,939.516338.1%24 W · 39 L-3.1wins-0.05per pick43cpaid+11.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9b48…4705backed Oh My God45c12,664$5,657 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,656.584942.9%21 W · 28 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+31.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4047…7293backed LNG Esports26c12,660$3,311 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,348.5223547.7%112 W · 123 L+6.7wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7600…4478backed Oh My God45c12,120$5,445 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,445.3331036.1%112 W · 198 L-18.3wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-17.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Oh My God37c11,324$4,239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,239.082,40642.6%1,026 W · 1,380 L+21.5wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x58f8…dc70backed LNG Esports52c10,756$5,609 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,147.0639770.3%279 W · 118 L+30.9wins+0.08per pick63cpaid+9.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x310f…4e42backed LNG Esports32c10,647$3,431 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,215.764075%30 W · 10 L+9.0wins+0.23per pick52cpaid+36.9%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0x85d5…45eebacked Oh My God50c10,351$5,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,20059558.3%347 W · 248 L-29.3wins-0.05per pick63cpaid-10.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe131…f63abacked Oh My God55c10,321$5,657 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,657.391442.9%6 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-23.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xef26…05babacked LNG Esports50c8,950$4,452 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,497.841,25937.6%473 W · 786 L+34.1wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9adf…55e8backed Oh My God51c8,420$4,273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,272.5542840.2%172 W · 256 L-32.1wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-19.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1ca8…1a39backed LNG Esports52c8,227$4,291 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,935.8728746%132 W · 155 L-13.7wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-13.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xecb7…e8e5backed Oh My God33c7,363$2,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,399.83462.2%1 W · 45 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-84.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd903…bf9dbacked Oh My God40c6,958$2,774 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,773.568438.1%32 W · 52 L-4.1wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-23.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc2f5…3092backed Oh My God74c6,798$5,001 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,000.810%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.74per pick74cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3414…067abacked Oh My God48c6,172$2,957 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,957.3977131.8%245 W · 526 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf512…40e3backed Oh My God46c5,856$2,694 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,693.572955.2%16 W · 13 L+2.2wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+46.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Oh My God35c5,636$1,989 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,988.7685046%391 W · 459 L-11.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-13.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed LNG Esports34c5,496$1,860 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,636.0385442.7%365 W · 489 L-14.3wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x224b…8927backed LNG Esports56c4,938$2,767 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,170.8142050.5%212 W · 208 L+27.9wins+0.07per pick44cpaid+9.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8ade…e692backed LNG Esports48c4,697$2,265 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,432.4922654.4%123 W · 103 L+20.9wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+17.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9dd3…4191backed LNG Esports71c4,515$3,189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,326.486936.2%25 W · 44 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick34cpaid-21.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xda5f…2e9bbacked Oh My God48c4,198$2,002 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,002.3222547.6%107 W · 118 L-11.4wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-8.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa2e4…bf9dbacked LNG Esports63c4,002$2,534 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,468.0867552.4%354 W · 321 L+10.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+6.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6260…fccbbacked Oh My God29c4,000$1,180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1806297%44 W · 585 L-2.2wins0.00per pick7cpaid-33.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1c38…3a1abacked LNG Esports56c3,975$2,245 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,730.161050%5 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-15.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9055…756abacked Oh My God68c3,915$2,673 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,673.157062.9%44 W · 26 L+7.3wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+39.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2307…3934backed LNG Esports52c3,704$1,926 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,778.5254353.8%292 W · 251 L+32.6wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+15.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xcccc…dbddbacked Oh My God43c3,658$1,556 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,556.2819146.1%88 W · 103 L0.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc926…8058backed LNG Esports54c3,206$1,721 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,484.8325560.8%155 W · 100 L+9.4wins+0.04per pick57cpaid+6.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3212…634ebacked LNG Esports50c3,121$1,575 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,546.521536.7%79 W · 136 L+6.5wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+2.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7cb1…984ebacked Oh My God43c3,100$1,329 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,329.326334.9%22 W · 41 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-16.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6be4…1f20backed Oh My God27c3,047$822 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82252747.6%251 W · 276 L+9.9wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed LNG Esports56c3,038$1,688 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,350.3415945.3%72 W · 87 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaf5d…7253backed Oh My God44c3,031$1,330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,330.483633.3%12 W · 24 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick36cpaid+6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6bea…5d50backed Oh My God55c3,019$1,647 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,647.0369041.3%285 W · 405 L-16.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb3a…0338backed Oh My God47c2,996$1,399 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,399.294542.2%19 W · 26 L-2.9wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-7.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9a3f…914abacked LNG Esports50c2,966$1,487 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,479.044852.1%25 W · 23 L-0.2wins0.00per pick53cpaid-16.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6bd5…81b0backed LNG Esports26c2,923$760 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,163.0410924.8%27 W · 82 L-2.9wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9d60…ae44backed Oh My God52c2,887$1,497 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,497.251233.3%4 W · 8 L-2.1wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-34%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf802…d91dbacked Oh My God46c2,712$1,243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,243.2911253.6%60 W · 52 L+5.2wins+0.05per pick49cpaid-0.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe916…4563backed LNG Esports58c2,679$1,557 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,121.7712338.2%47 W · 76 L-7.7wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-10.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbc24…c8c4backed Oh My God59c2,665$1,577 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,577.43333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick54cpaid-52.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xabcd…5944backed LNG Esports52c2,614$1,359 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,254.611100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe4b2…f800backed Oh My God48c2,602$1,249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,24910%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeea6…135fbacked Oh My God52c2,519$1,312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,311.9953139.9%212 W · 319 L+18.7wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+6.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5073…59f0backed Oh My God38c2,500$955 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$954.999348.4%45 W · 48 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-6.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x95b8…47c9backed LNG Esports56c2,328$1,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,028.4766947.8%320 W · 349 L-0.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8d36…68fdbacked LNG Esports54c2,324$1,246 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,078.4225751%131 W · 126 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x527b…a9fbbacked Oh My God46c2,163$985 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$984.6310%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xacf6…41fcbacked Oh My God56c2,158$1,205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,204.6450242.2%212 W · 290 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf5cc…0540backed Oh My God66c2,104$1,378 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,378.1723742.2%100 W · 137 L+6.1wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+4.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdf43…ae9abacked Oh My God48c2,063$986 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$986.1620151.7%104 W · 97 L-11.3wins-0.06per pick57cpaid-8.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x59f4…c1f1backed Oh My God46c2,000$920 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92013846.4%64 W · 74 L+7.6wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+17.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2984…0fc6backed Oh My God52c1,907$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0007852.6%41 W · 37 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d8e…349fbacked LNG Esports66c1,883$1,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$632.473256.3%18 W · 14 L0.0wins0.00per pick56cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2a8d…0779backed Oh My God74c1,853$1,372 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,371.54540%2 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.18per pick58cpaid-26.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7e0d…5d23backed LNG Esports54c1,852$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$851.851861.1%11 W · 7 L+2.8wins+0.16per pick45cpaid+31.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xb7b3…9573backed LNG Esports77c1,843$1,411 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$431.981,80639.1%707 W · 1,099 L-30.8wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-12%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcd94…6b1ebacked Oh My God48c1,775$850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$850.1783941%344 W · 495 L-37.8wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-14.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x081e…f76ebacked Oh My God47c1,714$806 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$805.6551852.7%273 W · 245 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2439…2e1fbacked LNG Esports51c1,638$839 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$798.766347.6%30 W · 33 L+5.0wins+0.08per pick40cpaid+18.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe2fb…1425backed LNG Esports52c1,633$848 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$784.891338.5%5 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-27.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x67d4…c718backed Oh My God62c1,609$998 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$998.297842.3%33 W · 45 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe9d4…e1d2backed Oh My God58c1,558$910 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$910616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.14per pick31cpaid-58.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x827a…8a2bbacked LNG Esports41c1,543$634 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$908.9313543%58 W · 77 L+0.5wins0.00per pick43cpaid-5.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaacf…5f84backed LNG Esports61c1,500$915 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58530661.1%187 W · 119 L-7.4wins-0.02per pick64cpaid-4.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x13fa…3facbacked Oh My God45c1,500$675 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$674.9824529.8%73 W · 172 L-0.9wins0.00per pick30cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x490a…1d4bbacked LNG Esports43c1,500$640 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$859.9710535.2%37 W · 68 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-5.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4cb9…3783backed Oh My God45c1,441$647 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$647.3421735.9%78 W · 139 L+4.2wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2627…a461backed Oh My God50c1,424$710 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$710.462157.1%12 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick59cpaid+12%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfbb3…d38ebacked Oh My God24c1,381$336 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$335.992958.6%17 W · 12 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdce3…9d85backed LNG Esports55c1,339$735 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$603.57666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.19per pick47cpaid+52.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcae6…4f85backed LNG Esports47c1,337$632 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$705.1267276.9%517 W · 155 L+87.3wins+0.13per pick64cpaid+30.2%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0xd9a5…c602backed Oh My God24c1,334$321 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$320.6629927.8%83 W · 216 L-0.2wins0.00per pick28cpaid-23%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xef1a…d048backed Oh My God31c1,328$411 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$411.1412444.4%55 W · 69 L+0.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid-9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec02…3dd1backed Oh My God61c1,318$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80014049.3%69 W · 71 L-22.3wins-0.16per pick65cpaid-29%equal weight35-0.14 edge/pick
0x08b3…48a9backed Oh My God55c1,316$728 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$727.681,02148%490 W · 531 L+26.7wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2266…138abacked LNG Esports52c1,311$682 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$629.46432.8%21 W · 43 L-2.9wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-17%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0254…34b3backed Oh My God65c1,311$852 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$851.894170.7%29 W · 12 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick67cpaid+8.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x94f1…b9e7backed LNG Esports58c1,306$760 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$546.0858046.9%272 W · 308 L-2.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid+2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd9a3…b1dfbacked Oh My God24c1,300$312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31211548.7%56 W · 59 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-10.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb177…1914backed Oh My God45c1,274$570 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5703336.4%12 W · 21 L-4.8wins-0.15per pick51cpaid-27.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x14f3…0c3dbacked Oh My God48c1,253$596 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$595.587248.6%35 W · 37 L-3.1wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-20.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdac9…56e7backed LNG Esports53c1,222$646 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$576.272161.9%13 W · 8 L+3.2wins+0.15per pick47cpaid+53.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4411…985ebacked LNG Esports37c1,213$450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$762.4713353.4%71 W · 62 L-3.8wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-4.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8aea…3c2bbacked Oh My God42c1,200$504 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503.72352.2%12 W · 11 L+3.0wins+0.13per pick39cpaid+54.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Oh My God39c1,180$464 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$463.9959952.8%316 W · 283 L-3.0wins0.00per pick53cpaid-12.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x31b5…6128backed LNG Esports48c1,162$557 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$604.9123657.2%135 W · 101 L-15.6wins-0.07per pick64cpaid-14.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5eab…d552backed LNG Esports25c1,149$292 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$856.9238624.4%94 W · 292 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick24cpaid+23.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x14ac…dd9fbacked Oh My God44c1,136$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5003522.9%8 W · 27 L-3.7wins-0.11per pick33cpaid-25.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2837…e56fbacked LNG Esports54c1,122$605 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$517.454445.5%20 W · 24 L+3.4wins+0.08per pick38cpaid+16%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8292…f774backed LNG Esports53c1,110$588 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$522.5316238.9%63 W · 99 L-5.9wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.