TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Kalmychata (BO3)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Kalmychataof Yellow Submarine, Kalmychata
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$97,222
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$121,336

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $97,222 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 124 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x507e…beaebacked Kalmychata33c3,917$1,299 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,617.472,01244.2%889 W · 1,123 L+36.6wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd9a5…c602backed Yellow Submarine6c3,655$217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$216.94932.7%16 W · 33 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-9.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdb78…5206backed Kalmychata47c3,547$1,674 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,873.71100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+112%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdcfe…44b5backed Kalmychata56c3,136$1,756 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,379.7932854.9%180 W · 148 L+11.8wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+2.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x06c0…e618backed Yellow Submarine44c3,060$1,349 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,3495761.4%35 W · 22 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick62cpaid+1.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yellow Submarine1c2,939$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.416169.7%60 W · 556 L-2.0wins0.00per pick10cpaid-53.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd903…bf9dbacked Kalmychata31c2,697$840 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,856.9910338.8%40 W · 63 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick36cpaid-5.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x871e…6566backed Kalmychata12c2,168$267 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,901.134456.8%25 W · 19 L+4.2wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+52.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9a3f…914abacked Kalmychata58c1,959$1,139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$819.575339.6%21 W · 32 L-6.5wins-0.12per pick52cpaid-31.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x9425…f025backed Kalmychata52c1,324$686 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$638.13560%3 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6bea…5d50backed Kalmychata29c1,321$386 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$934.9347748.6%232 W · 245 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfbb3…d38ebacked Yellow Submarine53c1,264$673 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$672.732740.7%11 W · 16 L-4.8wins-0.18per pick58cpaid-37.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xd62b…86d0backed Yellow Submarine64c1,181$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb75e…1737backed Yellow Submarine47c1,118$521 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52110945%49 W · 60 L+0.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid+5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8889…a9d1backed Yellow Submarine37c1,044$389 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$389.3619743.1%85 W · 112 L-6.0wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x641f…942bbacked Kalmychata54c1,026$554 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$471.875549.1%27 W · 28 L+3.4wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+34.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc954…642fbacked Kalmychata38c1,019$390 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$629.1716155.3%89 W · 72 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xda35…ff0ebacked Kalmychata54c913.4$496 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$416.941457.1%8 W · 6 L+1.4wins+0.10per pick47cpaid+14.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7e80…f17abacked Yellow Submarine6c900$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.6879.2%8 W · 79 L+0.1wins0.00per pick9cpaid-24.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe42b…7ea9backed Yellow Submarine42c899.96$378 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$377.9946535.1%163 W · 302 L+22.9wins+0.05per pick30cpaid+18.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x19f8…98f9backed Yellow Submarine45c894.22$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4001656.3%9 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Kalmychata31c885.49$279 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$606.6286949%426 W · 443 L-3.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid-15%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x29c0…efaabacked Yellow Submarine42c865.67$363 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$362.7511855.1%65 W · 53 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Kalmychata40c849.31$340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$509.7573841.7%308 W · 430 L-5.2wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x89f3…dfffbacked Kalmychata40c752.55$299 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$453.624445.5%20 W · 24 L+2.0wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2266…138abacked Yellow Submarine43c738.84$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$320.48540%2 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-23.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf3b4…e8b8backed Kalmychata7c732.33$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$680.561100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.93per pick7cpaid+1,314.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x30db…07c3backed Yellow Submarine45c584.5$263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$262.9954445.8%249 W · 295 L-10.5wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-7.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9ecb…a693backed Kalmychata25c551.6$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$410.96205%1 W · 19 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick6cpaid-80.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x653e…bbc0backed Kalmychata58c529.21$307 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$222.2710136.6%37 W · 64 L-7.0wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-19.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xb80d…0ac1backed Yellow Submarine50c504.6$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2506936.2%25 W · 44 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick38cpaid+3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x75ab…eb07backed Yellow Submarine7c484.32$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.827846.2%36 W · 42 L+4.4wins+0.06per pick40cpaid+14.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc75d…2d34backed Yellow Submarine67c465.18$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$310.410%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.67per pick67cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe9d4…e1d2backed Kalmychata33c462.56$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$312.162100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+148%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf79a…56c2backed Kalmychata56c459.51$257 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202.581735.3%6 W · 11 L-2.9wins-0.17per pick52cpaid-30.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc5f5…a33fbacked Kalmychata31c446$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$306250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.28per pick22cpaid+59.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xacf6…41fcbacked Kalmychata68c406.19$275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.2760646.9%284 W · 322 L+10.5wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2a7b…c2f8backed Kalmychata50c334.27$166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$168.131100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+101.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x74a8…df59backed Kalmychata58c289.53$167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.154148.8%20 W · 21 L+0.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid+5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x920d…38adbacked Yellow Submarine43c280.72$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.711942.1%8 W · 11 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick38cpaid-1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0c61…5213backed Yellow Submarine75c266.16$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.75per pick75cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x40da…66f0backed Yellow Submarine38c250$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.8510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9b47…25d3backed Yellow Submarine43c231.69$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.636334.9%22 W · 41 L-6.8wins-0.11per pick46cpaid-25.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xfa1a…d9abbacked Yellow Submarine43c230.68$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100714.3%1 W · 6 L-2.2wins-0.32per pick46cpaid-71.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x30b5…10b0backed Yellow Submarine64c217.17$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.6810%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf987…6ea7backed Kalmychata23c213.84$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.84837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick32cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x16d8…ba9ebacked Yellow Submarine45c211.26$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$968750.6%44 W · 43 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6dbc…18a0backed Yellow Submarine48c207.31$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001855.6%10 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5834…f0cbbacked Yellow Submarine48c206.94$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2b5b…2b07backed Yellow Submarine46c184.35$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8420%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3061…dd00backed Kalmychata61c176.53$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.391100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9cf7…e5a5backed Yellow Submarine47c175.45$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8217342.8%74 W · 99 L+5.9wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+11.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0c94…a43bbacked Kalmychata58c174$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.18366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick64cpaid+6.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Kalmychata63c172.77$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.691,90147.6%905 W · 996 L+4.6wins0.00per pick47cpaid-6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe6a5…e95dbacked Kalmychata58c172.41$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.4111753%62 W · 55 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb9be…8b35backed Kalmychata58c172.41$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.418349.4%41 W · 42 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+0.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x46f1…7295backed Yellow Submarine77c153.6$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1191435.7%5 W · 9 L-4.3wins-0.31per pick66cpaid-48.7%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed Kalmychata49c151.46$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.0814537.2%54 W · 91 L-3.7wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-29.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x61c1…0513backed Yellow Submarine67c150.31$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010659.4%63 W · 43 L-4.1wins-0.04per pick63cpaid-6.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6dc0…699abacked Kalmychata32c150$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10264123.4%150 W · 491 L-18.6wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-22.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8857…f34ebacked Yellow Submarine14c121.94$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.1960%0 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x99fe…b61cbacked Kalmychata57c119.99$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.62138.1%8 W · 13 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a81…b783backed Yellow Submarine44c113.31$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.8610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeb16…9757backed Yellow Submarine79c112.44$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.09250%1 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.30per pick80cpaid-37.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4f16…553dbacked Yellow Submarine56c106.56$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$606544.6%29 W · 36 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc393…590abacked Kalmychata58c106.47$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.4723849.6%118 W · 120 L-6.9wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7163…3601backed Kalmychata50c106.42$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.88560%51 W · 34 L+9.4wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+10.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xc3fc…5176backed Kalmychata56c105.36$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.368543.5%37 W · 48 L-6.6wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-11.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3a56…387cbacked Kalmychata44c105$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.352740.7%11 W · 16 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-23.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe3ee…373ebacked Kalmychata68c104.68$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.522100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+98.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8c25…21e6backed Kalmychata39c103.33$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.331100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.61per pick39cpaid+158.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b37…fcd6backed Yellow Submarine14c100$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.1128.3%1 W · 11 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick8cpaid-44.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xace9…f74abacked Kalmychata59c100$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$411560%9 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa224…4cb8backed Yellow Submarine76c99.99$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.9910%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.76per pick76cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfadf…dda0backed Yellow Submarine54c97.95$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.1129245.9%134 W · 158 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-1.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x81a4…da1fbacked Yellow Submarine55c97.24$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.655837.9%22 W · 36 L-5.8wins-0.10per pick48cpaid-23.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Kalmychata53c97.07$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.160542.6%258 W · 347 L-14.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-7.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x08b5…5a6ebacked Yellow Submarine54c95.19$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$511735.3%6 W · 11 L-2.6wins-0.15per pick51cpaid-41.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x16e4…0641backed Yellow Submarine72c94.77$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.03250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick70cpaid-27.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeddb…8afcbacked Yellow Submarine49c92.8$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.32250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+64.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b1c…2a3ebacked Kalmychata56c71.93$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.939054.4%49 W · 41 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a4f…5459backed Kalmychata33c69.92$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.9211051.8%57 W · 53 L-3.9wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-8.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8725…eb10backed Kalmychata57c69$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.7677941.1%320 W · 459 L-7.9wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-4.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x205c…f554backed Kalmychata58c68.97$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.971100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x566e…1340backed Yellow Submarine42c66.21$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.813650%18 W · 18 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0b99…8bddbacked Kalmychata24c65$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.3277458.5%453 W · 321 L+75.1wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+12.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x490a…1d4bbacked Yellow Submarine35c64.58$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.67935.4%28 W · 51 L-4.3wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-6.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x596a…7a0fbacked Yellow Submarine44c58.75$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.8570236.6%257 W · 445 L+4.8wins+0.01per pick36cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4b28…02dbbacked Kalmychata58c57.19$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.191471.4%10 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick67cpaid+7.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xba05…f8c0backed Kalmychata54c53$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.549133.6%165 W · 326 L+1.9wins0.00per pick33cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3647…6250backed Yellow Submarine38c52.33$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207538.7%29 W · 46 L-4.3wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-9.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0cdd…11bebacked Yellow Submarine35c52.33$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.2620%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x606d…1aafbacked Yellow Submarine57c50.51$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.791050%5 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+8.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc9c7…007dbacked Kalmychata28c50$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$362564%16 W · 9 L+2.4wins+0.09per pick55cpaid+6.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x896a…7b9cbacked Kalmychata65c50$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.45450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+27.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a73…9daabacked Yellow Submarine45c50$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.52875%21 W · 7 L+2.0wins+0.07per pick68cpaid+11.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbf69…4fa2backed Yellow Submarine35c49.98$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.4953634%182 W · 354 L+11.4wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Kalmychata24c46.92$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.662,37847.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L+15.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x791b…029ebacked Kalmychata45c46.67$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.674951%25 W · 24 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb8df…6df7backed Kalmychata44c46.64$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.18540%2 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-18%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.