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UFC · resolved market

UFC Fight Night: Javier Reyes vs. Kaan Ofli (Featherweight, Prelims)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Kaan Ofliof Javier Reyes, Kaan Ofli
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$208,059
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$224,508

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $208,059 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 221 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in UFC
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4bff…fc26backed Javier Reyes69c128,912$88,949 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88,949.187454.1%40 W · 34 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+17.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x224a…a3d5backed Kaan Ofli31c112,631$34,919 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77,712.8420348.3%98 W · 105 L+0.7wins0.00per pick48cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6f3e…bcf8backed Kaan Ofli31c9,999$3,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,899.33452.9%18 W · 16 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-12%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Kaan Ofli31c7,000$2,170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,829.9330039.3%118 W · 182 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-10.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xda34…01a8backed Kaan Ofli35c6,010$2,076 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,933.395540%22 W · 33 L+2.9wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+13%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xed10…d2e5backed Javier Reyes67c4,023$2,693 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,693.0822661.9%140 W · 86 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf5e1…5ad0backed Javier Reyes68c3,692$2,511 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,510.8428849.7%143 W · 145 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a24…3845backed Javier Reyes2c2,970$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.58224.5%1 W · 21 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick2cpaid+65.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4379…2e16backed Javier Reyes68c2,901$1,972 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,972.357159.2%42 W · 29 L+4.7wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+6.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Kaan Ofli30c2,557$767 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,790.4715444.2%68 W · 86 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-9.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa710…23c4backed Javier Reyes66c2,440$1,611 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,610.616244.4%72 W · 90 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1f71…b2e4backed Kaan Ofli73c2,259$1,658 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$601.026963.8%44 W · 25 L+11.8wins+0.17per pick47cpaid+24%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x0506…8c6abacked Kaan Ofli57c2,000$1,138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$861.5816846.4%78 W · 90 L+6.5wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x441d…544dbacked Kaan Ofli32c2,000$640 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,359.999247.8%44 W · 48 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Kaan Ofli31c2,000$610 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,389.9942042.6%179 W · 241 L-7.3wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-10.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8bfe…2d74backed Javier Reyes58c1,958$1,131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,130.696172.1%44 W · 17 L+4.2wins+0.07per pick65cpaid+10.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc3e5…519dbacked Javier Reyes69c1,942$1,340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,340.193571.4%25 W · 10 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick73cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeaf8…9f45backed Kaan Ofli76c1,835$1,388 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$446.724748.9%23 W · 24 L+3.2wins+0.07per pick42cpaid-17.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2e9c…ae02backed Kaan Ofli33c1,780$588 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,192.582100%2 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.61per pick39cpaid+162.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3155…268ebacked Kaan Ofli34c1,765$596 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,168.896759.7%40 W · 27 L+7.3wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+21.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe9d4…e1d2backed Javier Reyes44c1,700$754 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$753.8810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x82d2…beeabacked Kaan Ofli32c1,614$516 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,097.331090%9 W · 1 L+4.4wins+0.44per pick46cpaid+104.4%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Kaan Ofli43c1,579$673 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$906.364040%16 W · 24 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-19.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Javier Reyes20c1,500$299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.0436048.3%174 W · 186 L+16.2wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-0.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9f14…a4ebbacked Javier Reyes68c1,477$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0002941.4%12 W · 17 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-9.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc0df…5974backed Javier Reyes68c1,471$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0001450%7 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+14.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2a74…de59backed Javier Reyes64c1,470$941 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$941.03875%6 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.17per pick58cpaid+36.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbb8e…08c1backed Kaan Ofli71c1,042$743 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$299.4512451.6%64 W · 60 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-16.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0eca…c56abacked Javier Reyes14c1,014$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.336947.8%33 W · 36 L+4.2wins+0.06per pick42cpaid-5.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x26cf…c612backed Kaan Ofli48c1,007$482 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$524.9290553.6%485 W · 420 L+46.4wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+8.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfc87…dd68backed Kaan Ofli31c1,000$310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6903847.4%18 W · 20 L+3.1wins+0.08per pick39cpaid+17.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6dd6…f5f4backed Kaan Ofli77c955.35$736 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$219.2654056.7%306 W · 234 L-1.7wins0.00per pick57cpaid-4.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8342…6dc8backed Kaan Ofli56c898.03$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$398.031163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.9wins+0.17per pick47cpaid+32.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5b1b…65d7backed Kaan Ofli33c897.19$295 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$602.192458.3%14 W · 10 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+8.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1be7…a6e3backed Javier Reyes47c887.99$413 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$413.291010%1 W · 9 L-2.8wins-0.28per pick38cpaid-85.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x767a…8ac5backed Kaan Ofli32c859.22$275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$584.2715549%76 W · 79 L+6.0wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+7.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa804…2a75backed Kaan Ofli32c844.69$270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$574.395152.9%27 W · 24 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-10%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7a5d…54dbbacked Javier Reyes4c836.35$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.4515933.3%53 W · 106 L-8.9wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-44.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x87b6…4ababacked Kaan Ofli32c800$256 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5443852.6%20 W · 18 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1025…7e11backed Kaan Ofli32c799.91$259 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$540.9413244.7%59 W · 73 L+4.6wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+13.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa676…a4c5backed Kaan Ofli38c798.96$304 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$495.365273.1%38 W · 14 L+8.1wins+0.16per pick57cpaid+40.1%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x2849…3d49backed Javier Reyes25c774.67$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.629949.5%49 W · 50 L+4.2wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+9.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x664a…fc5fbacked Javier Reyes23c737.82$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.8715736.9%58 W · 99 L-0.6wins0.00per pick37cpaid-11.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9621…0a73backed Javier Reyes68c730.64$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5001450%7 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3ee4…ed67backed Kaan Ofli33c724.99$239 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$485.741526.7%4 W · 11 L-1.6wins-0.11per pick37cpaid-35.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa476…8cfcbacked Javier Reyes70c714.29$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5002774.1%20 W · 7 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick69cpaid+8.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb2eb…83b2backed Kaan Ofli32c625$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4252025%5 W · 15 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-43.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd1d9…5896backed Kaan Ofli32c625$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42514237.3%53 W · 89 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3b5…941abacked Javier Reyes67c613.39$411 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$410.971741.2%7 W · 10 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick46cpaid+22.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8056…b64dbacked Javier Reyes70c546.58$381 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38126140.6%106 W · 155 L-9.8wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-10.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6dae…72c1backed Javier Reyes67c525.71$352 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$351.571353.8%7 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick62cpaid-13%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf32d…bbbbbacked Javier Reyes70c519.06$363 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$363.345356.6%30 W · 23 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb14…5358backed Kaan Ofli38c500$188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$312.533948.1%163 W · 176 L-16.2wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-14.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Kaan Ofli31c491.23$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$338.9542254.3%229 W · 193 L+14.1wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+7.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1507…e175backed Kaan Ofli62c473.62$295 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$179.0310746.7%50 W · 57 L+7.1wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+9.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9375…5a37backed Javier Reyes67c452.04$303 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302.87333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick51cpaid-10.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbffe…6492backed Javier Reyes60c425.8$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$255.485646.4%26 W · 30 L-2.5wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-19.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9868…e82bbacked Javier Reyes47c425.7$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200560%3 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.13per pick47cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb399…9435backed Kaan Ofli61c405.11$248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.25560%33 W · 22 L+5.9wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+8.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc400…9cc4backed Javier Reyes63c378.51$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2403234.4%11 W · 21 L-4.9wins-0.15per pick50cpaid-33.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x300b…f636backed Javier Reyes67c375$251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251.256056.7%34 W · 26 L+3.4wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+7.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1a70…4865backed Javier Reyes67c371.73$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2502458.3%14 W · 10 L+1.8wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+15.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9a49…651abacked Javier Reyes68c368$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.245950.8%30 W · 29 L-0.2wins0.00per pick51cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xea39…9d34backed Javier Reyes68c368$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.242941.4%12 W · 17 L-2.0wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-13.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xadfa…36f4backed Javier Reyes68c367.65$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2504057.5%23 W · 17 L+2.9wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+12.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x91bc…28d6backed Javier Reyes69c362.32$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2504658.7%27 W · 19 L+3.0wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+12.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x360b…982fbacked Javier Reyes63c325.05$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.788851.1%45 W · 43 L-4.2wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-13.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5505…aa44backed Kaan Ofli33c317.92$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$214.123636.1%13 W · 23 L-0.1wins0.00per pick37cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa995…3d50backed Kaan Ofli32c312.5$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$212.58856.8%50 W · 38 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x011d…3d2fbacked Kaan Ofli32c312$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$212.169746.4%45 W · 52 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-6.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x89c9…9534backed Javier Reyes69c309$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.2124356.8%138 W · 105 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xac65…cfe6backed Javier Reyes62c307.04$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1905463%34 W · 20 L+0.2wins0.00per pick63cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x312d…6814backed Javier Reyes45c301.92$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.8615839.2%62 W · 96 L-4.9wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-17.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed Kaan Ofli32c301.17$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$204.89649%47 W · 49 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-9.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd614…1fa3backed Kaan Ofli58c300$174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12637854.8%207 W · 171 L+20.0wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+3.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3c69…b1debacked Javier Reyes69c299.99$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207450%2 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-23.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Javier Reyes22c298.74$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.5818032.8%59 W · 121 L-6.1wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-24%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0434…a98cbacked Kaan Ofli49c291.38$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.2426552.1%138 W · 127 L+23.9wins+0.09per pick43cpaid+17.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1809…3e9ebacked Javier Reyes68c291.17$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19810%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.68per pick68cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd161…4cc1backed Javier Reyes69c290$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.130964.7%200 W · 109 L+24.5wins+0.08per pick57cpaid+16.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc0fd…a0a9backed Kaan Ofli31c281.09$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$193.954233.3%14 W · 28 L-2.6wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-24.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x412a…802cbacked Kaan Ofli38c272.23$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$168.7816851.8%87 W · 81 L+6.0wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+7.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Javier Reyes25c260.14$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.4313951.1%71 W · 68 L+10.2wins+0.07per pick44cpaid-0.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd3cf…a5d4backed Javier Reyes40c250$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1005870.7%41 W · 17 L+6.8wins+0.12per pick59cpaid+21.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd73a…0f4ebacked Javier Reyes68c249.99$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.994967.3%33 W · 16 L+3.3wins+0.07per pick61cpaid+12.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x563f…09b0backed Kaan Ofli33c248$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.16366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick50cpaid+53.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb758…4699backed Javier Reyes70c245.59$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.913458.8%20 W · 14 L+1.8wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+38.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6f86…4fa9backed Javier Reyes68c237.43$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.4514560%87 W · 58 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed Kaan Ofli32c232.38$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.028636%31 W · 55 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+9.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2735…42ebbacked Javier Reyes49c200$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98450%2 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+49%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x951f…e430backed Kaan Ofli31c200$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1381546.7%7 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-7.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4889…e2d8backed Javier Reyes69c200$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13835764.7%231 W · 126 L+9.8wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5b62…d87fbacked Javier Reyes68c194.45$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.238558.8%50 W · 35 L+4.0wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3ce6…f60abacked Javier Reyes67c194.03$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1302254.5%12 W · 10 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa95a…6b78backed Kaan Ofli32c188.6$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.251650%8 W · 8 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc1b5…c8f8backed Kaan Ofli32c187.5$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.51369.2%9 W · 4 L+2.1wins+0.16per pick53cpaid+46.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf4f8…5bf1backed Javier Reyes18c175.53$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.229250%46 W · 46 L+4.4wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+3.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc1aa…b4bebacked Kaan Ofli58c172.41$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.413577.1%27 W · 8 L+6.7wins+0.19per pick58cpaid+27.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x7465…caa8backed Kaan Ofli59c170.27$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.2718160.8%110 W · 71 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick60cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x71f5…4ccebacked Kaan Ofli36c165$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.61010%1 W · 9 L-1.7wins-0.17per pick27cpaid-72.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.