UFC · resolved market
O/U 2.5 Rounds
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xba18b3d5ce6a85633b0d9795bd8c58adce35191dd880a8505826e96a2b5bfa08
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,349
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,413
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,349 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under | 53c | 4,000$2,116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,883.85 | 300 | 39.3%118 W · 182 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed Over | 47c | 2,097$986 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$985.59 | 71 | 28.2%20 W · 51 L | -6.7wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Over | 47c | 1,000$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470 | 420 | 42.6%179 W · 241 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd161…4cc1backed Over | 48c | 768$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$364.81 | 309 | 64.7%200 W · 109 L | +24.5wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe5d7…6530backed Under | 52c | 286.12$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.56 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d3…5639backed Over | 53c | 239.91$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.15 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -4.2wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Over | 47c | 230$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.1 | 291 | 33.7%98 W · 193 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Over | 47c | 201.44$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.99 | 420 | 54%227 W · 193 L | +12.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf438…9559backed Under | 53c | 163.43$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.22 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e34…4480backed Under | 47c | 146.85$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.83 | 67 | 56.7%38 W · 29 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…23c4backed Under | 52c | 115.42$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.4 | 162 | 44.4%72 W · 90 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcee9…8e38backed Under | 54c | 87.71$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.35 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Over | 48c | 50.16$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.31 | 209 | 52.6%110 W · 99 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…1fafbacked Under | 52c | 48.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.08 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b5…941abacked Over | 48c | 48.08$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.08 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…bfecbacked Over | 49c | 44.66$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.79 | 115 | 45.2%52 W · 63 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b39…7fbcbacked Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 54cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 47c | 23.42$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.41 | 242 | 56.2%136 W · 106 L | +20.8wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xded6…f649backed Over | 50c | 20.19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 94 | 51.1%48 W · 46 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- O/U 2.5 Roundsthis page
- Fight to Go the Distance?No won
- UFC Fight Night: Javier Reyes vs. Kaan Ofli (Featherweight, Prelims)Kaan Ofli won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.