Tennis · resolved market
Kosice: Lukas Pokorny vs Martin Krumich
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeb89c94f6a64207cb902906c9153cf549b57b22197598f7638e58048438eda6b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Martin Krumichof Lukas Pokorny, Martin Krumich
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $58,193
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $63,056
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $58,193 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Lukas Pokorny | 31c | 4,286$1,318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,318.05 | 9,038 | 36.1%3,266 W · 5,772 L | -196.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -27%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x710c…78eabacked Martin Krumich | 78c | 2,270$1,772 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$497.15 | 1,040 | 58.2%605 W · 435 L | -17.6wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Martin Krumich | 75c | 1,519$1,132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$386.48 | 8,241 | 45.5%3,746 W · 4,495 L | +166.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Martin Krumich | 75c | 1,067$805 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.14 | 4,602 | 67.8%3,119 W · 1,483 L | +309.9wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Lukas Pokorny | 21c | 968.85$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.46 | 3,884 | 35%1,358 W · 2,526 L | +92.8wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d9a…05e6backed Martin Krumich | 70c | 924.9$648 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.25 | 2,099 | 44.5%935 W · 1,164 L | -51.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Martin Krumich | 68c | 841.82$568 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.43 | 8,702 | 42.6%3,708 W · 4,994 L | -165.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf33e…0ab8backed Martin Krumich | 61c | 833$508 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324.87 | 71 | 39.4%28 W · 43 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36d8…c7c7backed Lukas Pokorny | 28c | 814$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.92 | 1,228 | 41.1%505 W · 723 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Lukas Pokorny | 38c | 796.76$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.31 | 2,776 | 53.7%1,491 W · 1,285 L | +69.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…5715backed Lukas Pokorny | 26c | 720.94$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185 | 102 | 34.3%35 W · 67 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcd…b8dbbacked Lukas Pokorny | 17c | 705.44$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.08 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Martin Krumich | 60c | 681.28$407 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.33 | 6,792 | 36.9%2,505 W · 4,287 L | -98.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Lukas Pokorny | 22c | 672.55$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.77 | 569 | 27.2%155 W · 414 L | +22.8wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde9f…d43cbacked Lukas Pokorny | 31c | 656.75$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.15 | 6,652 | 50.7%3,373 W · 3,279 L | +263.6wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a00…9158backed Martin Krumich | 69c | 640.06$441 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.46 | 790 | 40.6%321 W · 469 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21b5…1db6backed Martin Krumich | 79c | 632.9$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.91 | 285 | 62.8%179 W · 106 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9d4…e1d2backed Martin Krumich | 62c | 559.91$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.63 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Martin Krumich | 57c | 544.75$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.11 | 4,975 | 38.6%1,922 W · 3,053 L | -19.9wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x400d…e759backed Martin Krumich | 79c | 511.34$403 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.6 | 608 | 56.6%344 W · 264 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Lukas Pokorny | 23c | 499.74$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.54 | 9,374 | 44.3%4,154 W · 5,220 L | -244.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc547…c570backed Lukas Pokorny | 27c | 400$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.9 | 683 | 38.2%261 W · 422 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Martin Krumich | 72c | 332.37$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.88 | 917 | 55.5%509 W · 408 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc0…699abacked Lukas Pokorny | 43c | 306.61$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.1 | 329 | 35%115 W · 214 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Martin Krumich | 54c | 246.59$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.34 | 5,498 | 48.5%2,667 W · 2,831 L | +10.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcacf…c5e1backed Lukas Pokorny | 44c | 235.47$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.4 | 28 | 71.4%20 W · 8 L | +3.0wins | +0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc314…6a46backed Lukas Pokorny | 9c | 233.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 184 | 10.9%20 W · 164 L | -10.2wins | -0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -31%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd038…8f51backed Martin Krumich | 72c | 232.52$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.44 | 4,288 | 40.5%1,737 W · 2,551 L | -139.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa42f…5f5abacked Lukas Pokorny | 27c | 214.76$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.12 | 1,010 | 39.2%396 W · 614 L | -23.0wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe8b…5e62backed Lukas Pokorny | 29c | 203.27$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.98 | 239 | 32.6%78 W · 161 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Lukas Pokorny | 25c | 197.06$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.01 | 4,765 | 47%2,238 W · 2,527 L | -82.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Lukas Pokorny | 61c | 195$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.95 | 1,926 | 55.4%1,067 W · 859 L | -44.4wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a84…e21abacked Lukas Pokorny | 7c | 181.43$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 95 | 29.5%28 W · 67 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddf5…aaa3backed Martin Krumich | 79c | 164.87$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.87 | 692 | 53.3%369 W · 323 L | -10.4wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f0…b753backed Lukas Pokorny | 61c | 152$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.72 | 143 | 69.2%99 W · 44 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc75f…d7f6backed Martin Krumich | 79c | 151.9$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.9 | 207 | 64.7%134 W · 73 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2d5…53d0backed Martin Krumich | 78c | 141.61$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.59 | 176 | 56.3%99 W · 77 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ade…ed94backed Martin Krumich | 78c | 126.58$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.85 | 1,458 | 54%787 W · 671 L | -33.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +64.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6376…0d2abacked Lukas Pokorny | 26c | 125$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.95 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe71…8437backed Martin Krumich | 45c | 111.83$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.27 | 112 | 39.3%44 W · 68 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Martin Krumich | 52c | 108.47$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.53 | 6,574 | 46.2%3,037 W · 3,537 L | -45.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1df2…89a0backed Martin Krumich | 54c | 103.54$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.16 | 2,065 | 35.2%727 W · 1,338 L | -52.7wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb946…2671backed Lukas Pokorny | 22c | 101.04$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.23 | 578 | 42.4%245 W · 333 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked Lukas Pokorny | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.99 | 1,179 | 52.8%623 W · 556 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x293c…dcbabacked Martin Krumich | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 373 | 54.2%202 W · 171 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0813…41e1backed Martin Krumich | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 371 | 58.8%218 W · 153 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1400…765dbacked Lukas Pokorny | 44c | 97.37$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.46 | 327 | 32.1%105 W · 222 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Martin Krumich | 62c | 86$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.68 | 567 | 44.6%253 W · 314 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc4b…e5a8backed Lukas Pokorny | 12c | 85.46$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 16cpaid | +56.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb4c…ad1bbacked Lukas Pokorny | 62c | 78.27$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.53 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.16per pick | 62cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Lukas Pokorny | 39c | 76.92$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3,457 | 38.9%1,345 W · 2,112 L | -15.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd154…9c74backed Lukas Pokorny | 21c | 76$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.78 | 348 | 47.1%164 W · 184 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec9e…2868backed Martin Krumich | 66c | 75.76$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.76 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 66cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Lukas Pokorny | 19c | 69$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.17 | 2,089 | 52.2%1,090 W · 999 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x962e…1d75backed Martin Krumich | 79c | 65.41$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.91 | 403 | 60.8%245 W · 158 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba1a…85febacked Martin Krumich | 63c | 63.49$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.49 | 726 | 51.8%376 W · 350 L | -12.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Lukas Pokorny | 47c | 63.49$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.92 | 853 | 48.7%415 W · 438 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Lukas Pokorny | 47c | 63.49$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.92 | 659 | 52.5%346 W · 313 L | +27.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7179…7d79backed Lukas Pokorny | 58c | 58.62$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 2,639 | 46.4%1,224 W · 1,415 L | +19.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Martin Krumich | 77c | 57.82$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 7,107 | 39.7%2,820 W · 4,287 L | -17.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Martin Krumich | 39c | 57.6$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.14 | 3,711 | 45.3%1,680 W · 2,031 L | -6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x375d…075dbacked Lukas Pokorny | 37c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.15per pick | 43cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x831d…0705backed Martin Krumich | 57c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 265 | 63.8%169 W · 96 L | -12.1wins | -0.05per pick | 68cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Martin Krumich | 56c | 49.12$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.78 | 4,650 | 48.2%2,242 W · 2,408 L | +31.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd764…ae83backed Martin Krumich | 62c | 48.39$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.39 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Martin Krumich | 75c | 47.25$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.99 | 5,009 | 41.4%2,075 W · 2,934 L | -82.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf970…f7f6backed Lukas Pokorny | 23c | 43.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 2,528 | 36.2%914 W · 1,614 L | -26.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e1…49ddbacked Martin Krumich | 65c | 38.73$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.7 | 668 | 34.3%229 W · 439 L | -43.2wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xabc9…eb4cbacked Lukas Pokorny | 32c | 36.39$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ad…7889backed Martin Krumich | 71c | 35.11$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.12 | 560 | 70.7%396 W · 164 L | -14.5wins | -0.03per pick | 73cpaid | -4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…08c1backed Martin Krumich | 44c | 34$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.04 | 2,135 | 56%1,195 W · 940 L | +41.0wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2827…64f6backed Martin Krumich | 42c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 175 | 54.9%96 W · 79 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Martin Krumich | 60c | 27.45$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.98 | 320 | 49.1%157 W · 163 L | +8.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54ac…47e6backed Martin Krumich | 69c | 26.34$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.11 | 194 | 74.7%145 W · 49 L | +34.2wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x5a89…df4bbacked Martin Krumich | 77c | 26.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 146 | 57.5%84 W · 62 L | +12.9wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef1…5acabacked Martin Krumich | 79c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 1,794 | 60.2%1,080 W · 714 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbafb…3031backed Martin Krumich | 77c | 20.28$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.57 | 336 | 73.2%246 W · 90 L | -15.2wins | -0.05per pick | 78cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32b4…8b21backed Martin Krumich | 76c | 19.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.71 | 3,726 | 42.4%1,580 W · 2,146 L | -48.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2863…1114backed Martin Krumich | 66c | 15.46$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.21 | 59 | 66.1%39 W · 20 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.