TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

First Round Pool C: Japan vs. South Korea

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Japanof Japan, South Korea
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$798,924

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $798,924 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 236 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8fba…d08abacked South Korea25c40,000$10,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,999.9453150.5%268 W · 263 L+19.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa41c…fadebacked South Korea11c31,802$3,498 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,498.211070%7 W · 3 L+2.3wins+0.23per pick47cpaid+34.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x790c…0a8dbacked South Korea10c30,745$3,181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,181.2110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked South Korea10c23,220$2,363 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,363.1246547.1%219 W · 246 L+5.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+6.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed South Korea11c20,532$2,183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,182.922231.8%7 W · 15 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick27cpaid-39.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x21c2…6749backed South Korea20c16,198$3,170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,169.668644.2%38 W · 48 L-5.0wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-26.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd995…2b51backed South Korea21c14,376$2,956 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,955.95220%0 W · 22 L-4.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xe2e1…c20abacked South Korea19c9,343$1,747 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,747.4910353.4%55 W · 48 L+5.6wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+0.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe2cf…d1e7backed South Korea5c9,128$441 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaea0…0decbacked South Korea19c7,976$1,552 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,552.437753.2%41 W · 36 L+2.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-9.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x321e…80febacked South Korea16c6,472$1,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,05020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x079f…a9d1backed South Korea20c6,277$1,238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,237.585944.1%26 W · 33 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-25.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf026…8df7backed South Korea19c6,139$1,183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,183.217750.6%39 W · 38 L+2.8wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x344b…f7fcbacked South Korea19c5,971$1,138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,137.779241.3%38 W · 54 L-4.2wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-26.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked South Korea15c5,362$785 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$785.271,45642.7%622 W · 834 L-39.7wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-24.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7462…3ac3backed South Korea20c5,145$1,019 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,018.635754.4%31 W · 26 L-0.1wins0.00per pick55cpaid-7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4464…95d4backed South Korea12c4,648$536 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$535.651030%3 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-32.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Japan76c4,595$3,512 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,082.8812,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xead0…f3babacked South Korea11c4,482$493 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$492.9730%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xac81…c181backed South Korea4c4,458$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.3910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3191…0665backed South Korea14c4,397$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$600714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.7wins-0.24per pick39cpaid-50.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed South Korea1c3,668$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.76336.1%2 W · 31 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick3cpaid+66.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed South Korea12c3,523$430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$430.1585135.8%305 W · 546 L-23.3wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-25.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1e54…c8ccbacked South Korea9c3,345$314 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$314.342133.3%7 W · 14 L-2.2wins-0.11per pick44cpaid+48.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Japan76c3,288$2,503 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$785.811,86552%970 W · 895 L+50.8wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+9.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3587…23adbacked South Korea16c3,161$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5007244.4%32 W · 40 L+2.6wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4328…11d2backed Japan78c2,787$2,162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$625.056749.3%33 W · 34 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+1.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x73e1…645fbacked Japan80c2,500$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5001100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a8…58fdbacked South Korea9c2,423$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$229.8216135.4%57 W · 104 L-6.1wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-17.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed South Korea12c2,422$293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$292.5921842.7%93 W · 125 L-5.2wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-14.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf18d…9863backed South Korea3c2,414$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.1128.3%1 W · 11 L-1.4wins-0.11per pick20cpaid-64.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x01ac…f401backed South Korea12c2,411$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x5993…33a2backed South Korea9c2,354$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2111154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick51cpaid-4.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4198…d2afbacked South Korea9c2,175$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.1950%0 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2569…5d2dbacked South Korea14c2,143$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3001735.3%6 W · 11 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-27.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfc13…ff2cbacked South Korea9c2,143$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8314…0f1ebacked South Korea9c2,013$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.149655.2%53 W · 43 L+4.3wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+11.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb2a3…0ab2backed South Korea20c1,955$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-33.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xadc7…daa3backed South Korea11c1,888$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.8910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed South Korea10c1,866$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.041,46644.1%647 W · 819 L+44.0wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+7.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe8e3…5889backed South Korea11c1,818$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20060%0 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x27ca…e628backed South Korea8c1,818$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.0110546.7%49 W · 56 L+4.7wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+20.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd57c…afc6backed South Korea17c1,793$305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304.8633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8aba…0b08backed South Korea12c1,764$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2203438.2%13 W · 21 L-1.9wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-7.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2ecb…7645backed South Korea11c1,704$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.8844745.6%204 W · 243 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x41ab…baf7backed South Korea10c1,600$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x23e8…6eb7backed South Korea9c1,559$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.14714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.16per pick31cpaid-52.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6107…4c82backed Japan75c1,479$1,109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$369.792100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+163.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xed9a…8dd2backed South Korea2c1,357$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.8410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5ba4…6a8cbacked South Korea2c1,300$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick15cpaid-34.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x97cb…9efcbacked South Korea12c1,224$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.92520%1 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick31cpaid-60.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe75a…5a83backed Japan77c1,200$928 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$272580%4 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.23per pick57cpaid+31%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8844…26b5backed South Korea10c1,179$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick17cpaid+15%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b44…63fbbacked South Korea9c1,120$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.032123.8%5 W · 16 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick30cpaid-41.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbe10…c5cbbacked South Korea17c1,112$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.61030%3 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick38cpaid-50.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed South Korea10c1,111$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.871,36044.3%602 W · 758 L+45.8wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9c77…402cbacked South Korea2c1,073$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.2862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.8wins+0.23per pick40cpaid+35.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7c47…1189backed South Korea15c1,067$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160520%1 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.20per pick40cpaid-59.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbec0…68c7backed South Korea6c1,066$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.771723.5%4 W · 13 L-0.1wins0.00per pick24cpaid-13.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0cbb…f8a3backed South Korea8c1,026$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8630242.4%128 W · 174 L-1.2wins0.00per pick43cpaid+3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0204…0e31backed South Korea12c1,012$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11818048.3%87 W · 93 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+18.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x76f4…200ebacked Japan75c1,001$751 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$250.251323.1%3 W · 10 L-3.6wins-0.28per pick51cpaid-59.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xe86a…e272backed South Korea13c1,000$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130742.9%3 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick42cpaid-27.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8172…abeabacked South Korea13c1,000$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1302725.9%7 W · 20 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick23cpaid-16.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x06b5…cab4backed South Korea8c986$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.0440%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x351e…9b3dbacked South Korea4c927.38$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21e2…871dbacked South Korea6c917.74$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.5710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9cd7…ec7cbacked Japan78c910.56$714 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$196.481553.3%8 W · 7 L-1.6wins-0.10per pick64cpaid-27.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x802e…76fdbacked South Korea11c899.08$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.912095%19 W · 1 L+11.9wins+0.60per pick35cpaid+246.9%equal weight79+0.27 edge/pick
0xa3dd…fc5abacked Japan75c898.55$674 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$224.64250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-33.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked South Korea16c842.79$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.1147745.7%218 W · 259 L+7.6wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-17.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe6a5…e95dbacked South Korea12c839.99$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.828045.7%128 W · 152 L-8.0wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-6.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaebe…c509backed South Korea6c820.29$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.2310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x82a8…6c09backed South Korea9c800$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72100%0 W · 10 L-2.4wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x60f7…050bbacked Japan78c799.98$626 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1741154.5%6 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-8.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc363…9fd8backed Japan74c746.99$553 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$194.22366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick54cpaid-4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5210…2037backed South Korea12c735.33$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.2420%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xefe8…fe1abacked South Korea24c733.89$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.8250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-36.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x89d1…55b8backed South Korea11c732.75$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.556457.8%37 W · 27 L+3.4wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+13.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x12f1…3cd3backed South Korea12c700$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.9418243.4%79 W · 103 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-10.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc9f…905bbacked South Korea12c699.99$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8436729.4%108 W · 259 L+5.6wins+0.02per pick28cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe115…8c0ebacked South Korea17c684.99$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.45520%1 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick20cpaid-16.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6340…1bd0backed South Korea3c683.98$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.411638.8%45 W · 71 L-6.1wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-14.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdb09…050ebacked South Korea15c666.73$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.01650%3 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+9.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5137…4648backed Japan78c646.56$504 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.543458.8%20 W · 14 L+3.7wins+0.11per pick48cpaid+26.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe49b…2943backed Japan76c628.98$479 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.27955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.11per pick45cpaid+18.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2218…9fc8backed South Korea2c625$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1040%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0bcf…9ac2backed South Korea7c602.68$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4550%0 W · 5 L-1.8wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe338…a122backed South Korea7c600.67$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.5710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x87a4…953ebacked South Korea11c600$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6547348.8%231 W · 242 L-22.0wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-10.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfc04…f726backed South Korea9c599.92$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.993348.5%16 W · 17 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x27d2…a66cbacked South Korea12c560.07$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.214459.1%26 W · 18 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf033…56e4backed South Korea9c558.88$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.3520%1 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick24cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x06f8…4ecfbacked South Korea17c550$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.58616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.6wins-0.27per pick43cpaid-70.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2c24…4186backed South Korea19c539.49$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.94616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.6wins-0.27per pick44cpaid-76.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x503a…8322backed South Korea14c529.1$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.072454.2%13 W · 11 L+1.4wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+2.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf978…cf69backed South Korea8c516.41$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.38333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-47.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x126b…298fbacked South Korea5c514.25$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x40f9…3337backed South Korea9c504.44$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.21030%3 W · 7 L+1.2wins+0.12per pick18cpaid+93.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x78cd…5aa0backed South Korea10c500$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.