TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

First Round Pool C: Chinese Taipei vs. Japan

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Japanof Chinese Taipei, Japan
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$684,290

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $684,290 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 153 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd995…2b51backed Chinese Taipei4c88,232$3,385 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,384.96220%0 W · 22 L-4.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x0b41…730ebacked Chinese Taipei0c50,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8fba…d08abacked Chinese Taipei11c33,333$3,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,699.9454051.1%276 W · 264 L+23.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+8.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Chinese Taipei9c26,742$2,351 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,351.352231.8%7 W · 15 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick27cpaid-39.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfbf3…b218backed Chinese Taipei9c24,589$2,120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,119.5870%0 W · 7 L-2.2wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x85c1…048cbacked Chinese Taipei0c21,814$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.6510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5ba4…6a8cbacked Chinese Taipei1c14,000$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.54812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick15cpaid-34.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xd9d6…885abacked Chinese Taipei1c11,871$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.1810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa206…ab03backed Chinese Taipei9c11,630$999 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$999.51233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-13.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9906…1aa5backed Chinese Taipei0c10,284$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.1410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c65…50a9backed Chinese Taipei9c7,072$643 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$642.6366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.32per pick34cpaid+87.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Chinese Taipei9c6,701$619 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$618.541,46644.1%647 W · 819 L+44.0wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+7.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x30f1…2ceebacked Chinese Taipei10c4,832$499 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.21250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.16per pick34cpaid-12.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Chinese Taipei4c4,660$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.01137.7%1 W · 12 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick4cpaid+101.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x01f5…5cfbbacked Chinese Taipei10c4,058$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6df…4b4abacked Chinese Taipei7c3,308$236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$236.2910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf37…993fbacked Chinese Taipei9c3,255$288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$288.287247.2%34 W · 38 L+3.6wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb3cf…0ebdbacked Chinese Taipei6c3,022$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.0914924.2%36 W · 113 L-0.4wins0.00per pick24cpaid+5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2613…b219backed Chinese Taipei3c3,006$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-52.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x70bf…ffb4backed Chinese Taipei10c2,863$299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$298.8710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Chinese Taipei9c2,618$236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$235.991,87452%975 W · 899 L+51.6wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+9.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6027…4320backed Chinese Taipei11c2,530$269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$269.2284949.1%417 W · 432 L+6.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1484…fd01backed Chinese Taipei9c2,500$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6714…1e5abacked Chinese Taipei6c2,328$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.8530%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x50c8…53d8backed Chinese Taipei9c2,109$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Chinese Taipei9c2,100$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.441,36044.3%602 W · 758 L+45.8wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8aba…0b08backed Chinese Taipei11c2,037$234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2343438.2%13 W · 21 L-1.9wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-7.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb18e…d709backed Chinese Taipei9c2,000$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.2210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8bd4…6eafbacked Chinese Taipei8c1,961$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.561540%6 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-25.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1624…bf63backed Chinese Taipei2c1,922$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.9923036.1%83 W · 147 L-11.2wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-28.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x453a…fdb8backed Chinese Taipei9c1,917$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.42812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.7wins+0.09per pick4cpaid+140.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbbd3…b751backed Chinese Taipei7c1,900$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13950%0 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa2d7…0983backed Chinese Taipei1c1,889$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.5550%0 W · 5 L-1.6wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Chinese Taipei8c1,808$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.4847745.7%218 W · 259 L+7.6wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-17.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9793…789cbacked Chinese Taipei12c1,793$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212.1310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xc485…db31backed Chinese Taipei11c1,732$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.7510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7462…3ac3backed Chinese Taipei10c1,524$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1575754.4%31 W · 26 L-0.1wins0.00per pick55cpaid-7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xba9f…0d81backed Chinese Taipei10c1,510$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150683.3%5 W · 1 L+2.4wins+0.40per pick43cpaid+82.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x13d6…926ebacked Chinese Taipei9c1,500$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1387128.2%20 W · 51 L+2.5wins+0.03per pick25cpaid+20.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x86c8…c867backed Chinese Taipei10c1,366$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.013250%16 W · 16 L+4.4wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+59%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xdbb8…f7debacked Chinese Taipei7c1,275$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.212025%5 W · 15 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick20cpaid+76.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe8e3…5889backed Chinese Taipei9c1,200$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10860%0 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7729…a60bbacked Chinese Taipei9c1,156$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.1610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Chinese Taipei4c1,074$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.233929.4%37 W · 355 L+1.5wins0.00per pick9cpaid-40.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf842…e77dbacked Chinese Taipei10c1,049$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.94250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.36per pick14cpaid+177.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8990…909ebacked Chinese Taipei12c1,031$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick22cpaid+3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xddd3…dba6backed Chinese Taipei10c1,001$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.582045%9 W · 11 L+2.8wins+0.14per pick31cpaid-1.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Chinese Taipei2c987.99$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.8336.1%2 W · 31 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick3cpaid+66.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x40de…65d6backed Chinese Taipei10c962.28$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.6210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8844…26b5backed Chinese Taipei11c946.98$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick17cpaid+15%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbb20…3478backed Chinese Taipei11c911.86$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100450%2 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.23per pick27cpaid+48.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1d39…81f7backed Chinese Taipei14c877.22$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1201435.7%5 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-30.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8396…543fbacked Chinese Taipei10c861.7$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x792a…b829backed Chinese Taipei12c816.85$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick21cpaid-45.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7428…aaf2backed Chinese Taipei12c800.12$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x0231…f72bbacked Chinese Taipei7c798.98$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.91922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.12per pick34cpaid-68%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1081…1484backed Chinese Taipei13c770.16$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick25cpaid+5.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9a96…c691backed Chinese Taipei2c769.77$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.6610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7f2d…fbf5backed Chinese Taipei8c722.78$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.548247.6%39 W · 43 L-4.2wins-0.05per pick53cpaid+28.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6e63…1cedbacked Chinese Taipei9c667.96$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$603231.3%10 W · 22 L-2.0wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-26.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0e60…b913backed Chinese Taipei8c666.75$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.75333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.12per pick21cpaid+23.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe155…6f55backed Chinese Taipei9c657.38$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6020%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe363…c894backed Chinese Taipei9c656.49$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.431963.2%12 W · 7 L+3.3wins+0.17per pick46cpaid+24.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf7c2…9b8dbacked Chinese Taipei10c626.17$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$612147.6%10 W · 11 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Chinese Taipei7c620.67$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.191414.3%2 W · 12 L+1.1wins+0.08per pick7cpaid+201%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1649…7f22backed Chinese Taipei10c596.31$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$601546.7%7 W · 8 L+1.7wins+0.11per pick35cpaid+24.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4c4e…b978backed Chinese Taipei9c582.44$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.521225%3 W · 9 L+1.0wins+0.09per pick16cpaid-12.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa4c3…bbb2backed Chinese Taipei9c569.62$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd7d4…bff4backed Chinese Taipei11c559.98$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.77812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick19cpaid-55.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Chinese Taipei9c549.16$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.1712,32846.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L-66.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6bdd…1b11backed Chinese Taipei10c510.31$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a50…09f4backed Chinese Taipei10c505.3$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2e7c…164dbacked Chinese Taipei11c501.02$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.654250%21 W · 21 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b7c…8d4cbacked Chinese Taipei9c500$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.65742.9%3 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.19per pick24cpaid+161.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd37a…2358backed Chinese Taipei9c494.45$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.0540846.1%188 W · 220 L-10.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-7.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2218…9fc8backed Chinese Taipei11c482.02$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5540%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9c6d…a7e9backed Chinese Taipei7c460$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.0910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7cb2…df19backed Chinese Taipei11c457.21$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b31…a5babacked Chinese Taipei10c454.31$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.83425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-26.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0413…057dbacked Chinese Taipei9c440$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.0410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf106…6710backed Chinese Taipei10c426.29$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.5630%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5afa…df73backed Chinese Taipei11c415.82$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.451435.7%5 W · 9 L-2.4wins-0.17per pick53cpaid-49.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Chinese Taipei9c409.29$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.091,45642.7%622 W · 834 L-39.7wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-24.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x32f5…7db6backed Chinese Taipei5c400$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20450%2 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+7.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f5e…94e9backed Chinese Taipei10c400$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.97425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-39%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7681…ac03backed Chinese Taipei9c399.99$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.29021.1%19 W · 71 L-4.3wins-0.05per pick26cpaid-51.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x686e…3415backed Chinese Taipei9c388.38$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3460%0 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x494a…33a9backed Chinese Taipei11c370$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.2310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f86…a893backed Chinese Taipei8c365.04$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.0210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe304…4b0bbacked Chinese Taipei11c359.98$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.32475%3 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.30per pick45cpaid+42.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9cef…e3b4backed Chinese Taipei10c350$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84ce…6c4abacked Chinese Taipei9c345.46$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301752.9%9 W · 8 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+17.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa7f4…88e6backed Chinese Taipei9c339.22$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.782114.3%3 W · 18 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick19cpaid+2.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe733…c355backed Chinese Taipei10c330.58$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf112…d9e1backed Chinese Taipei11c329.55$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.62812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.14per pick26cpaid-39.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1c2c…3dc9backed Chinese Taipei10c328.92$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.472240.9%9 W · 13 L-2.7wins-0.12per pick53cpaid-31.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x0dcc…031ebacked Chinese Taipei10c327.1$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.967846.2%36 W · 42 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+18.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf21b…894ebacked Chinese Taipei10c314.25$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301030%3 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-19.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x061a…8ecfbacked Chinese Taipei10c306.46$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7058…1a0abacked Chinese Taipei10c301.28$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.45450%2 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.14per pick36cpaid-13.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.