Ligue 1 · resolved market
Spread: Toulouse FC (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7dd44a668687d7336444476e94e9ab53cd707823f9a67e8ec6665ebb49c87dd0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Racing Club de Lensof Toulouse FC, Racing Club de Lens
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,530
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,717
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,530 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 12 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Toulouse FC | 18c | 1,631$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.19 | 1,415 | 40.8%577 W · 838 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Toulouse FC | 4c | 550.77$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.7 | 711 | 40.2%286 W · 425 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Toulouse FC | 3c | 483.05$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 873 | 44.3%387 W · 486 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0520…3efdbacked Toulouse FC | 31c | 427.53$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.51 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa334…beaebacked Toulouse FC | 16c | 296.96$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.48 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -3.2wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Racing Club de Lens | 74c | 212.82$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.04 | 1,916 | 45.5%872 W · 1,044 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4be6…b010backed Toulouse FC | 27c | 177.43$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.87 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -4.4wins | -0.19per pick | 45cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x86a6…1b3ebacked Toulouse FC | 43c | 140.21$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.87 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.9wins | -0.19per pick | 46cpaid | -48%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Racing Club de Lens | 57c | 138.2$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.01 | 156 | 49.4%77 W · 79 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ba4…6a8cbacked Toulouse FC | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ee7…f36ebacked Toulouse FC | 21c | 59.05$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.38 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Racing Club de Lens | 76c | 26.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.48 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Toulouse FC (-1.5)this page
- Racing Club de Lens vs. Toulouse FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Racing Club de Lens vs. Toulouse FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Racing Club de Lens vs. Toulouse FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Racing Club de Lens vs. Toulouse FC: O/U 3.5Over won
- Racing Club de Lens vs. Toulouse FC: O/U 4.5Over won
- Spread: Racing Club de Lens (-1.5)Toulouse FC won
- Spread: Racing Club de Lens (-2.5)Toulouse FC won
- Spread: Toulouse FC (-2.5)Racing Club de Lens won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.