Ligue 1 · resolved market
Racing Club de Lens vs. Toulouse FC: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4e8db5e63f87e35908c3f5767663d394eaccef61df6a08309f96f65e296ccc40
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,617
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $47,346
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,617 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2d61…3fcbbacked Under | 0c | 13,896$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.51 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 30c | 2,800$849 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$848.57 | 1,916 | 45.5%872 W · 1,044 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c95…8a0bbacked Over | 64c | 2,283$1,461 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$821.91 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x116c…e162backed Under | 64c | 1,111$711 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$710.78 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Under | 65c | 1,100$715 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$715 | 127 | 38.6%49 W · 78 L | -7.8wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d0…8814backed Over | 72c | 1,055$760 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.49 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +68.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Over | 35c | 900$319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$580.6 | 263 | 54%142 W · 121 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 60c | 821.42$492 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$491.88 | 711 | 40.2%286 W · 425 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 50c | 710.99$354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$354.37 | 331 | 45%149 W · 182 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd93…56c0backed Over | 76c | 647.89$492 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.49 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Under | 40c | 603.77$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.22 | 53 | 56.6%30 W · 23 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86a6…1b3ebacked Under | 47c | 564.44$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.29 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.9wins | -0.19per pick | 46cpaid | -48%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9a…a9a8backed Under | 64c | 550.06$352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$352.04 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a41…1cbbbacked Over | 36c | 491.48$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.55 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.22per pick | 44cpaid | +73.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7418…251fbacked Over | 76c | 453.89$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.93 | 30 | 80%24 W · 6 L | +7.8wins | +0.26per pick | 54cpaid | +64.7%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xa0dc…586cbacked Under | 46c | 420.7$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.52 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0176…910ebacked Under | 18c | 406.1$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.64 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 36c | 376.75$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.12 | 452 | 33.6%152 W · 300 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Over | 36c | 300$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192 | 233 | 42.5%99 W · 134 L | -11.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…5ac3backed Under | 5c | 299.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6562…4e48backed Over | 68c | 295.93$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.7 | 77 | 55.8%43 W · 34 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 54c | 252.83$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.98 | 593 | 48.4%287 W · 306 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…e5a5backed Over | 47c | 206$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.18 | 68 | 42.6%29 W · 39 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8745…4658backed Over | 70c | 187.03$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.43 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 66cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1670…2277backed Over | 37c | 182.04$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.68 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…2b6abacked Over | 54c | 181.01$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.79 | 65 | 18.5%12 W · 53 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d53…2735backed Over | 76c | 168.59$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.46 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 31c | 152.79$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.19 | 1,415 | 40.8%577 W · 838 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e3e…7857backed Over | 72c | 146.95$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.55 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6b…ec86backed Under | 34c | 141.24$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.02 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Over | 60c | 127.26$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.33 | 94 | 50%47 W · 47 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a81…a86bbacked Over | 69c | 104.83$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.56 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc02a…b43fbacked Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1bfe…9408backed Under | 45c | 98.81$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.47 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 64c | 84.99$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.64 | 464 | 50.4%234 W · 230 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x722a…d6edbacked Over | 77c | 81.1$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.65 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -2.4wins | -0.30per pick | 68cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 50c | 79.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.99 | 145 | 44.8%65 W · 80 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec5…9bc4backed Over | 36c | 68.42$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.06 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46d2…6805backed Under | 26c | 66.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.55 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3041…2245backed Over | 72c | 61.47$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.45 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Over | 65c | 54.98$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.08 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 50c | 51.18$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.59 | 243 | 49.4%120 W · 123 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Under | 64c | 48.92$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.31 | 91 | 52.7%48 W · 43 L | -5.9wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe33d…9512backed Under | 25c | 47.9$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.98 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -3.7wins | -0.25per pick | 38cpaid | -64%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 47c | 45.51$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.12 | 56 | 62.5%35 W · 21 L | +8.1wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6001…0457backed Over | 35c | 43.12$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.03 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36f9…5445backed Over | 57c | 42.97$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.62 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a68…22dfbacked Under | 26c | 42.16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.14per pick | 25cpaid | -78.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc629…5e51backed Over | 50c | 38.8$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.4 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…5efebacked Over | 48c | 38.75$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.15 | 73 | 53.4%39 W · 34 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf9…dde4backed Over | 78c | 37.38$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.22 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0576…6232backed Over | 36c | 35.75$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.88 | 63 | 52.4%33 W · 30 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Over | 62c | 33.76$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.68 | 95 | 58.9%56 W · 39 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 34c | 32.53$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.47 | 525 | 50.1%263 W · 262 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe941…a496backed Over | 55c | 32.53$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.79 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +3.5wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8ab8…e32fbacked Over | 76c | 32.42$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0040…9eb8backed Over | 64c | 30.58$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.01 | 67 | 62.7%42 W · 25 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 74c | 28.55$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.42 | 240 | 52.9%127 W · 113 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Over | 58c | 27.12$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.28 | 125 | 56%70 W · 55 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d85…2560backed Under | 52c | 25.77$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x380c…1099backed Over | 77c | 25.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.89 | 78 | 69.2%54 W · 24 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Over | 66c | 24.57$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.31 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.01 | 486 | 49%238 W · 248 L | +14.3wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1105…09d0backed Under | 64c | 18.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x654d…ba8fbacked Under | 63c | 15.9$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -3.1wins | -0.29per pick | 47cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Racing Club de Lens vs. Toulouse FC: O/U 3.5this page
- Racing Club de Lens vs. Toulouse FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Racing Club de Lens vs. Toulouse FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Racing Club de Lens vs. Toulouse FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Racing Club de Lens vs. Toulouse FC: O/U 4.5Over won
- Spread: Racing Club de Lens (-1.5)Toulouse FC won
- Spread: Racing Club de Lens (-2.5)Toulouse FC won
- Spread: Toulouse FC (-1.5)Racing Club de Lens won
- Spread: Toulouse FC (-2.5)Racing Club de Lens won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.