TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Lakers vs. Warriors

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Lakersof Lakers, Warriors
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$3,427,825
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,752,566

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,427,825 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,374 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xbddf…c684backed Warriors40c716,407$286,563 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$286,562.872648.3%351 W · 375 L+30.5wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x07b8…8e25backed Lakers60c510,543$305,051 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$205,491.7123257.8%134 W · 98 L+7.6wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8e43…a3cdbacked Warriors40c389,978$155,691 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155,691.4543542.8%186 W · 249 L-7.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb27…c56ebacked Warriors38c374,119$143,990 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143,989.9187144.7%389 W · 482 L+14.9wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Lakers61c280,992$170,104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110,888.062,04548.4%990 W · 1,055 L-30.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xada5…db70backed Lakers61c175,418$106,492 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68,926.351354.2%278 W · 235 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf19d…276fbacked Warriors40c136,477$54,591 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54,590.7423147.6%110 W · 121 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Lakers60c104,704$62,960 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41,743.534,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc257…358ebacked Warriors7c100,000$7,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,999.9840446.8%189 W · 215 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid+1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb9e5…1809backed Lakers61c82,308$50,030 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32,278.064459.1%26 W · 18 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick62cpaid+0.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Warriors8c52,180$4,010 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,010.061,34129.9%401 W · 940 L-53.8wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-35.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x94a5…9838backed Warriors41c50,103$20,525 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,524.5520947.8%100 W · 109 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-9.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x67bb…b6efbacked Lakers60c50,000$30,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,00034456.7%195 W · 149 L+9.2wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+3.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ade…f5b0backed Lakers60c50,000$30,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,0001,55652.8%822 W · 734 L+40.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+10.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4eef…3fcbbacked Lakers61c49,998$30,499 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,499.3311955.5%66 W · 53 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-4.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x84db…aeebbacked Warriors40c35,479$14,359 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,358.781,37450.1%689 W · 685 L+34.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8cc8…0fa2backed Lakers60c33,690$20,214 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,476850%4 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-20.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3ae5…ead2backed Lakers61c32,712$19,954 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,757.735248.1%25 W · 27 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-11.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked Warriors10c31,607$3,190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,189.961,09640.9%448 W · 648 L+34.3wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-17%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf988…d63bbacked Lakers62c29,520$18,302 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,217.628554%154 W · 131 L+5.5wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f03…64d6backed Lakers60c29,000$17,340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,6601,04651.1%534 W · 512 L-0.7wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a57…2afabacked Warriors41c28,740$11,783 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,783.48944.9%40 W · 49 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1eda…9c47backed Warriors26c26,551$6,893 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,8931040%4 W · 6 L+1.1wins+0.11per pick29cpaid+14%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb1b9…6d18backed Lakers60c25,807$15,484 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,322.66875%6 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.15per pick60cpaid+10.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x11db…841fbacked Warriors0c25,000$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252270%0 W · 227 L-0.2wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf11…8399backed Warriors40c25,000$10,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,999.9837539.5%148 W · 227 L-1.2wins0.00per pick40cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x622e…07abbacked Lakers60c23,405$14,043 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,36217356.1%97 W · 76 L+8.5wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+4.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Warriors8c22,070$1,674 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,674.41,38439.4%545 W · 839 L+4.8wins0.00per pick39cpaid-21.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed Lakers62c22,063$13,679 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,383.931,04549%512 W · 533 L+21.8wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x04b9…79e0backed Lakers60c22,000$13,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,80013642.6%58 W · 78 L0.0wins0.00per pick43cpaid+14.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7af9…b408backed Lakers60c21,044$12,626 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,417.66657.6%38 W · 28 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+9.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8cdc…b83fbacked Lakers60c20,995$12,597 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,39820948.8%102 W · 107 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9e16…0127backed Lakers60c20,124$12,074 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,049.622143%95 W · 126 L-12.0wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-11.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1716…d2b5backed Lakers60c17,000$10,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,800.21384.6%11 W · 2 L+4.1wins+0.32per pick53cpaid+60.8%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x7702…9791backed Lakers78c16,141$12,536 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,604.8624151.9%125 W · 116 L-7.7wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Warriors7c15,548$1,103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1031,22637.4%458 W · 768 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-21.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x842a…7422backed Warriors40c15,212$6,012 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,011.961,19448.8%583 W · 611 L-22.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5e6e…be00backed Warriors38c14,000$5,320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,32045850.4%231 W · 227 L+11.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf7c4…5919backed Warriors1c12,538$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9667911%75 W · 604 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick10cpaid-11%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5116…58c4backed Lakers67c12,153$8,125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,027.9976850.3%386 W · 382 L-5.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc5cd…ef89backed Lakers62c12,147$7,531 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,615.751100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa38a…821dbacked Warriors32c12,041$3,848 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,847.8293148.4%451 W · 480 L+34.1wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-2.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe9cb…d096backed Warriors15c11,989$1,785 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,785.231,00334.7%348 W · 655 L-44.7wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-35.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6b45…d196backed Warriors14c11,535$1,670 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,670.3912540.8%51 W · 74 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-5.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x30d1…cd88backed Lakers61c11,300$6,893 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,4074151.2%21 W · 20 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3c1d…3846backed Warriors40c11,000$4,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,4006943.5%30 W · 39 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-15.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe64f…7d71backed Lakers59c11,000$6,490 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,5101752.9%9 W · 8 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x34fc…050cbacked Lakers59c11,000$6,514 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,485.358052.5%42 W · 38 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x57a8…6933backed Lakers60c10,995$6,645 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,349.7292753.5%496 W · 431 L+20.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc44f…d49fbacked Lakers61c10,984$6,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,283.7648352%251 W · 232 L+10.2wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Warriors41c10,849$4,431 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,431.132,07853.6%1,113 W · 965 L+44.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4219…7855backed Lakers62c10,529$6,528 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,000.894259.5%25 W · 17 L+2.3wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+4.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5c0b…4d31backed Warriors0c10,351$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.9910252%53 W · 49 L+4.0wins+0.04per pick48cpaid-3.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc6fd…f43ebacked Lakers61c10,052$6,102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,950.0210746.7%50 W · 57 L-4.2wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-5.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb45d…a406backed Warriors0c10,014$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.0327917.9%50 W · 229 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick19cpaid-44.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xea22…747abacked Warriors1c10,000$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.567921.4%145 W · 534 L+32.4wins+0.05per pick17cpaid+33.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1997…2e36backed Warriors41c10,000$4,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,10018747.1%88 W · 99 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x92e1…2ec3backed Warriors0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101844.4%8 W · 10 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick40cpaid-27.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdcaf…e271backed Lakers60c10,000$6,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,999.952050%10 W · 10 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-12.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x901f…74e9backed Lakers61c9,832$5,997 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,834.4510046%46 W · 54 L+3.9wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+27%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Lakers60c9,745$5,848 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,896.882,34648.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L-14.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f5e…e7dbbacked Lakers59c9,391$5,541 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,850.328649.7%142 W · 144 L-8.0wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-3.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Lakers59c9,338$5,498 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,840.114,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x598b…f296backed Warriors39c8,955$3,493 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,492.5914244.4%63 W · 79 L-8.4wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-17.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x56fc…733ebacked Lakers61c8,732$5,326 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,405.339857.1%56 W · 42 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe85d…95d8backed Lakers60c8,333$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,333.3315355.6%85 W · 68 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d5c…4302backed Lakers62c8,065$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,064.5210952.3%57 W · 52 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-6.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x77d3…f4d6backed Warriors39c7,600$2,933 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,933.4329250%146 W · 146 L+9.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbce9…03e9backed Warriors0c7,350$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$268820%0 W · 882 L-6.7wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3280…ea74backed Warriors41c7,317$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,0009531.6%30 W · 65 L-11.6wins-0.12per pick44cpaid-26.2%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xa803…2949backed Lakers63c7,199$4,535 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,663.559345.2%42 W · 51 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8716…bd57backed Warriors41c6,666$2,733 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,733.0641832.8%137 W · 281 L-10.5wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-18.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Lakers60c6,645$3,956 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,689.043,90247.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L-17.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x41b4…de82backed Warriors31c6,567$2,010 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,010.358740%235 W · 352 L+24.3wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+3.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc339…ba5bbacked Lakers59c6,202$3,673 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,529.343256.3%18 W · 14 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick60cpaid+0.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb4b8…950bbacked Warriors39c6,192$2,406 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,406.272556%14 W · 11 L+3.6wins+0.14per pick42cpaid+30.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Lakers79c6,164$4,885 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,279.2885742.6%365 W · 492 L-15.6wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-13.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c75…b299backed Lakers60c6,042$3,625 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,416.674438.6%17 W · 27 L-2.4wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xae82…faf0backed Lakers60c6,000$3,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,40015849.4%78 W · 80 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1a68…3b20backed Lakers59c5,700$3,363 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,336.992441.7%10 W · 14 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8ff3…1aa9backed Warriors40c5,649$2,281 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,281.0919645.9%90 W · 106 L-4.0wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe648…b79abacked Lakers60c5,358$3,215 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,143.3325554.1%138 W · 117 L-8.3wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-8.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4b03…71babacked Lakers66c5,300$3,474 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,825.992850%14 W · 14 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-8.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5d21…abc5backed Warriors19c5,285$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0007133.8%24 W · 47 L-3.0wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-15.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8c87…5eb4backed Lakers61c5,282$3,222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,059.9510347.6%49 W · 54 L-3.9wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-7.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc740…522fbacked Lakers60c5,233$3,140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,093.334751.1%24 W · 23 L-0.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f07…9d0fbacked Lakers61c5,091$3,106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,985.6817962%111 W · 68 L+8.0wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+7.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8000…3a21backed Lakers60c5,000$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,00025947.5%123 W · 136 L+14.5wins+0.06per pick42cpaid+7.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xdab4…a27abacked Lakers60c5,000$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,0008944.9%40 W · 49 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-4.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Warriors9c5,000$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45081529.4%240 W · 575 L-37.0wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-43%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc091…3d42backed Lakers60c5,000$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,00054351.6%280 W · 263 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6319…4fd7backed Warriors40c4,939$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,000862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+6.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd568…a35abacked Warriors41c4,930$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0007758.4%45 W · 32 L+4.5wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+9.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd696…8a49backed Lakers59c4,864$2,870 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,994.241,21248.3%586 W · 626 L-20.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Lakers75c4,540$3,418 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,122.322,94951.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L+119.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x44d6…9858backed Warriors38c4,500$1,710 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,71012745.7%58 W · 69 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x15a6…bf5dbacked Lakers61c4,444$2,711 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,733.159348.4%45 W · 48 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7aa8…56dbbacked Lakers66c4,194$2,761 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,432.3248956.4%276 W · 213 L+31.3wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+5.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x66ec…8c18backed Warriors11c4,133$472 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$472.125813.8%8 W · 50 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick15cpaid+40.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8cbb…acb2backed Warriors41c4,100$1,673 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,672.889050.4%449 W · 441 L+4.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 24 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.