TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Lakers vs. Warriors: O/U 229.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$4,193
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$4,312

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,193 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xdc87…7ab6backed Under50c1,264$630 inLost-$629.612,66648%1,279 W · 1,387 L-8.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x773c…cf18backed Over50c800$400 inWon+$40018448.9%90 W · 94 L-13.3wins-0.07per pick56cpaid-14.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8e43…a3cdbacked Under53c711.94$377 inLost-$376.8343542.8%186 W · 249 L-7.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x223f…2050backed Over25c399.35$98 inWon+$301.4119435.1%68 W · 126 L-13.2wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-18.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xeb72…2514backed Over43c333.82$144 inWon+$190.281050%5 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Over48c240.34$114 inWon+$126.174,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xea22…747abacked Under75c221.46$166 inLost-$166.167921.4%145 W · 534 L+32.4wins+0.05per pick17cpaid+33.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Over47c208.95$98 inWon+$1113,90247.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L-17.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x23d5…1232backed Over51c196.08$100 inWon+$96.081850%9 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Under77c194.81$150 inLost-$1501,91054.3%1,038 W · 872 L+25.2wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Over47c190.01$89 inWon+$100.612,50748.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L+19.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd0ea…5a8abacked Under57c114.83$65 inLost-$65.451225%3 W · 9 L-3.1wins-0.26per pick51cpaid-52%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xa839…6f8cbacked Under57c111.35$63 inLost-$63.471338.5%5 W · 8 L-1.5wins-0.11per pick50cpaid-20.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb3e0…3c1ebacked Under57c107.64$61 inLost-$61.35825%2 W · 6 L-2.1wins-0.27per pick52cpaid-50.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc81a…c368backed Over47c106.99$51 inWon+$56.1917747.5%84 W · 93 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8351…9bebbacked Over50c100$50 inWon+$5017758.2%103 W · 74 L+11.0wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+11.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over42c95$40 inWon+$554,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over39c81.97$32 inWon+$502,73646.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L-67.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8d14…1eb4backed Under61c81.97$50 inLost-$5037352%194 W · 179 L-7.7wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Under50c74$37 inLost-$373,34243.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L+81.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over49c61.18$30 inWon+$31.342,34648.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L-14.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdaf6…1a9bbacked Over47c55.24$26 inWon+$29.2878648.7%383 W · 403 L+6.1wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb870…5a8abacked Over27c50.68$14 inWon+$3791846.2%424 W · 494 L+1.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb390…642bbacked Under52c50$26 inLost-$261,66150.3%836 W · 825 L-14.9wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa578…6702backed Under56c50$28 inLost-$281,15049.5%569 W · 581 L-12.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1dd2…9e07backed Over51c49.02$25 inWon+$24.0255444.4%246 W · 308 L-11.0wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xabbf…0758backed Under65c48.93$32 inLost-$32.0239047.7%186 W · 204 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x89d3…59a6backed Over49c48.5$24 inWon+$24.51650%8 W · 8 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd774…82cdbacked Under52c48.08$25 inLost-$2535551.3%182 W · 173 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf18a…e4e5backed Over46c46.54$22 inWon+$24.923,55146.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L+1.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-6.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3008…5cb6backed Under60c40$24 inLost-$246446.9%30 W · 34 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Over48c39$19 inWon+$20.2865630.2%198 W · 458 L-86.7wins-0.13per pick43cpaid-42.7%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0xa33c…1b33backed Under50c29.6$15 inLost-$14.962844.9%282 W · 346 L-21.3wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-8.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc6c3…a6e8backed Over50c29$15 inWon+$14.520144.8%90 W · 111 L-6.8wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-5.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Under57c25.58$15 inLost-$14.585,84446.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1643…6716backed Over43c25.58$11 inWon+$14.58633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.14per pick19cpaid+67%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 24 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.