NBA · resolved market
Lakers vs. Warriors: O/U 227.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9e4715d3f260abad019913d5a4d530c593d5ed0e29b10e02e8209c1cd1762c8f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,891
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,602
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,891 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x34cd…9675backed Over | 48c | 2,446$1,166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,280.89 | 226 | 48.2%109 W · 117 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e43…a3cdbacked Under | 49c | 2,418$1,178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,177.67 | 435 | 42.8%186 W · 249 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x339a…1eaebacked Under | 52c | 1,802$937 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$937.21 | 1,759 | 61.7%1,085 W · 674 L | +127.5wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Under | 52c | 1,229$644 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$644.05 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 50c | 993.64$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$493.31 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea22…747abacked Under | 63c | 567.1$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$357.5 | 679 | 21.4%145 W · 534 L | +32.4wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a51…b2b6backed Over | 56c | 505.74$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.53 | 898 | 53.1%477 W · 421 L | +21.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 54c | 499.6$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.78 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8d7…2bbabacked Under | 50c | 484$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb752…ed38backed Over | 50c | 478$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5593…069abacked Over | 50c | 470$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48ed…108bbacked Under | 50c | 462$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9576…c722backed Under | 50c | 448$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07bb…e8a9backed Under | 50c | 444$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Over | 51c | 443.73$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.43 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4df…5daebacked Over | 50c | 422$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7330…af7ebacked Over | 50c | 420$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x223f…2050backed Over | 43c | 371.96$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.4 | 194 | 35.1%68 W · 126 L | -13.2wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x24cd…933bbacked Over | 50c | 354$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5819…c307backed Over | 50c | 328$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79bd…904dbacked Under | 50c | 326$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fdf…8427backed Under | 50c | 308$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Over | 50c | 275.76$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.66 | 2,507 | 48.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L | +19.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c39…20eebacked Under | 47c | 192.75$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.59 | 358 | 43.6%156 W · 202 L | -8.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 26c | 167.08$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.57 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 51c | 166.17$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.8 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x556f…f4e4backed Over | 47c | 134.62$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.43 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdaf6…1a9bbacked Over | 52c | 125.9$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.37 | 786 | 48.7%383 W · 403 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b55…d74bbacked Over | 50c | 120$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 171 | 48%82 W · 89 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Under | 49c | 119.09$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.12 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x695a…7ba2backed Under | 49c | 109.24$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +3.0wins | +0.20per pick | 54cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 50c | 99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 1,634 | 48.1%786 W · 848 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9345…3869backed Over | 53c | 70.59$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.18 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb94d…9b31backed Over | 55c | 69.55$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.3 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Under | 65c | 69.11$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.98 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d55…7bc7backed Over | 50c | 54.99$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 911 | 48.1%438 W · 473 L | -11.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked Under | 52c | 52.39$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.24 | 920 | 58%534 W · 386 L | +10.4wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Under | 50c | 52.12$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.06 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cf…0ebdbacked Over | 53c | 51.06$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 1,271 | 38.3%487 W · 784 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 48c | 47.5$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.81 | 2,346 | 48.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L | -14.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89d3…59a6backed Over | 55c | 43.47$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.47 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Under | 50c | 43$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 656 | 30.2%198 W · 458 L | -86.7wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xabbf…0758backed Over | 35c | 40.44$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.44 | 390 | 47.7%186 W · 204 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 70c | 29.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.36 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c4e…b978backed Under | 50c | 29.02$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked Under | 46c | 29$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.34 | 464 | 47.8%222 W · 242 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fbb…727fbacked Under | 46c | 27.78$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.78 | 144 | 48.6%70 W · 74 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13f4…48c6backed Over | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 138 | 52.9%73 W · 65 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 45c | 25.12$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x971c…f72cbacked Over | 55c | 24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 152 | 53.3%81 W · 71 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa9f…b083backed Over | 56c | 23.39$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.29 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked Over | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 620 | 49%304 W · 316 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed8…0e99backed Under | 77c | 14.14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 456 | 53.5%244 W · 212 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 24 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Lakers vs. Warriors: O/U 227.5this page
- 1H Spread: Lakers (-1.5)Lakers won
- Austin Reaves: Assists O/U 3.5No won
- Austin Reaves: Points O/U 20.5No won
- Austin Reaves: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
- Brandin Podziemski: Points O/U 15.5No won
- De'Anthony Melton: Assists O/U 2.5Yes won
- Deandre Ayton: Rebounds O/U 7.5Yes won
- Draymond Green: Assists O/U 4.5Yes won
- Gui Santos: Rebounds O/U 6.5No won
- Kristaps Porzingis: Points O/U 11.5No won
- Lakers vs. WarriorsLakers won
- Lakers vs. Warriors: 1H MoneylineLakers won
- Lakers vs. Warriors: O/U 225.5Over won
- Lakers vs. Warriors: O/U 226.5Over won
- Lakers vs. Warriors: O/U 228.5Over won
- Lakers vs. Warriors: O/U 229.5Over won
- Lakers vs. Warriors: O/U 230.5Under won
- LeBron James: Points O/U 18.5Yes won
- LeBron James: Rebounds O/U 5.5Yes won
- Luka Dončić: Points O/U 30.5No won
- Moses Moody: Rebounds O/U 3.5No won
- Spread: Lakers (-3.5)Lakers won
- Spread: Lakers (-4.5)Lakers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.