Bundesliga · resolved market
Will 1. FC Köln vs. FC Bayern München end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb462cc14a81263d95306f9d2a47b416b73057a0817491f4177e97f41dd8c217e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $89,834
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $95,245
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $89,834 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7690…74e1backed Yes | 14c | 16,664$2,333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,333 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 79c | 5,414$4,252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,162.15 | 751 | 42.5%319 W · 432 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 77c | 2,273$1,756 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$516.37 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94fb…d6cbbacked Yes | 12c | 1,600$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.98 | 74 | 23%17 W · 57 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x587b…2622backed Yes | 24c | 1,500$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.74 | 194 | 58.2%113 W · 81 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +28%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0283…e7d3backed Yes | 8c | 1,150$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.5 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0775…eca8backed Yes | 14c | 1,071$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 26c | 822.66$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.72 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 76c | 721.36$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.18 | 491 | 43.2%212 W · 279 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a8e…b505backed No | 68c | 714.99$488 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.33 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed No | 76c | 702.66$535 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.92 | 306 | 47.1%144 W · 162 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21c2…6749backed No | 76c | 650$494 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.76 | 65 | 53.8%35 W · 30 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Yes | 24c | 621.76$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.22 | 337 | 37.4%126 W · 211 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb19f…dd0ebacked Yes | 33c | 605.53$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0b…43cbbacked Yes | 13c | 605.11$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.66 | 228 | 29.4%67 W · 161 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4243…35d1backed Yes | 23c | 478.26$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3344…9175backed Yes | 13c | 455.18$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…3335backed Yes | 39c | 400$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156 | 63 | 66.7%42 W · 21 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 20c | 341.27$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.22 | 511 | 36.8%188 W · 323 L | -28.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0aa4…dbc5backed Yes | 30c | 333.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c5e…7952backed Yes | 32c | 312.5$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed No | 78c | 240.07$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.11 | 85 | 51.8%44 W · 41 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Yes | 29c | 216.81$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.19 | 536 | 45.9%246 W · 290 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe89…d978backed Yes | 14c | 212.79$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.79 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5eeb…01b2backed Yes | 20c | 208.44$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.76 | 149 | 34.9%52 W · 97 L | -7.2wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Yes | 24c | 208.3$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 395 | 58.7%232 W · 163 L | +27.4wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3cbc…3b01backed Yes | 24c | 194.61$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.06 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ac…b988backed Yes | 26c | 193.02$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes | 16c | 191.07$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.08 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed No | 78c | 191.03$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.01 | 116 | 44%51 W · 65 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Yes | 24c | 184.03$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.17 | 238 | 42.9%102 W · 136 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x865f…e88ebacked Yes | 13c | 183.25$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.82 | 343 | 42%144 W · 199 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4706…286ebacked Yes | 13c | 164.1$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.33 | 160 | 45%72 W · 88 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c07…aeb0backed Yes | 9c | 156.8$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 30cpaid | -77.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fe4…3f12backed Yes | 15c | 136.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…ab7dbacked No | 76c | 131.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.58 | 108 | 63%68 W · 40 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a7e…36e7backed Yes | 23c | 130.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2d9…f193backed Yes | 39c | 128.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +4.1wins | +0.16per pick | 24cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x41eb…b169backed Yes | 16c | 126.88$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb28d…83e4backed Yes | 12c | 125.26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.03 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.19per pick | 34cpaid | -78%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d53…8a3ebacked Yes | 17c | 121.93$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.17 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4597…272bbacked Yes | 14c | 121.43$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a9…d58bbacked Yes | 13c | 115.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2eae…a25fbacked Yes | 14c | 107.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51be…1805backed Yes | 12c | 100.42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ee…8067backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +2.5wins | +0.17per pick | 36cpaid | +40.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe071…d24cbacked Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac98…7281backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 89 | 39.3%35 W · 54 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12fe…38cfbacked Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -2.6wins | -0.13per pick | 34cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9aaf…8298backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 214 | 50%107 W · 107 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50ca…8edbbacked Yes | 26c | 97.47$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf711…db0bbacked Yes | 13c | 97.15$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.63 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -4.1wins | -0.19per pick | 48cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1f77…724bbacked Yes | 21c | 95.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed No | 76c | 88.8$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.31 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7e…f78ebacked Yes | 37c | 87.4$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.42 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6570…32ccbacked Yes | 23c | 86.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e10…70f4backed No | 76c | 81.8$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.63 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51ce…43fabacked Yes | 14c | 81.64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.43 | 65 | 26.2%17 W · 48 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d65…7d4abacked Yes | 18c | 68.12$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.39per pick | 21cpaid | +209.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc7a0…05c4backed Yes | 25c | 66.08$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.52 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes | 36c | 58.74$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.86 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d4…6297backed No | 77c | 58$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.34 | 60 | 56.7%34 W · 26 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fb…74f3backed Yes | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8f…3782backed No | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.3 | 119 | 31.1%37 W · 82 L | -9.8wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x830f…1c47backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23d4…5607backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +2.3wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7216…0d67backed No | 79c | 30.4$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.42 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x450f…9479backed No | 76c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1cb…fb77backed No | 77c | 29.53$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.73 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6460…84efbacked No | 75c | 27.13$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -23%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ec8…397bbacked No | 72c | 27$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 1. FC Köln vs. FC Bayern München end in a draw?this page
- Will 1. FC Köln win on 2026-01-14?No won
- Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-01-14?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.