TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Bundesliga · resolved market

Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-01-14?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,080,179
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,224,092

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,080,179 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 857 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5350…2fdabacked Yes80c136,000$108,690 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27,310475%3 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.11per pick64cpaid+10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed No30c76,939$22,986 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22,985.963,28442.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L-74.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Yes80c67,447$53,921 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,525.8315134.4%52 W · 99 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-7.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x72b4…7d67backed No20c34,375$6,875 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,8754938.8%19 W · 30 L-4.7wins-0.10per pick48cpaid-8.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7865…4af9backed No21c32,840$6,868 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,868.154524.4%11 W · 34 L-3.5wins-0.08per pick32cpaid-5.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked No20c29,093$5,855 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,855.4978248.8%382 W · 400 L-28.1wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-12.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked No25c27,714$6,938 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,938.231,35550.9%690 W · 665 L+12.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6dae…4688backed No21c25,500$5,280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,2801040%4 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-30.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x57cd…a0fbbacked No21c25,400$5,334 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,3342941.4%12 W · 17 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick37cpaid+26%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ade…f5b0backed No21c25,200$5,292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,2921540%6 W · 9 L-1.8wins-0.12per pick52cpaid-42%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2759…2b38backed No20c25,000$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,0003132.3%10 W · 21 L+2.5wins+0.08per pick24cpaid+26.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe3d4…2bacbacked Yes80c22,468$17,974 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,493.594772.3%34 W · 13 L+5.5wins+0.12per pick61cpaid+24.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa196…5b78backed No21c20,420$4,234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,233.939831.6%31 W · 67 L-6.5wins-0.07per pick38cpaid-26%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd836…ea78backed Yes80c20,000$16,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,0001100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x14ac…cb21backed Yes79c20,000$15,875 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,1252065%13 W · 7 L+1.8wins+0.09per pick56cpaid+6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed No20c19,410$3,883 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,883.0569851.9%362 W · 336 L+22.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+9.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd776…ffebbacked No20c18,758$3,752 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,751.664341.9%18 W · 25 L-0.2wins0.00per pick42cpaid+3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7690…74e1backed Yes80c16,666$13,333 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,333.25333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.23per pick56cpaid-58.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3f5e…e7dbbacked No21c15,971$3,354 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,3545549.1%27 W · 28 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4133…5e70backed No22c15,362$3,455 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,455.2275142.5%319 W · 432 L-26.7wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x88d1…18dabacked Yes70c14,282$9,997 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,284.55475%3 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.19per pick56cpaid+45.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb875…68a8backed No21c14,080$2,957 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,956.85444.4%24 W · 30 L-5.5wins-0.10per pick55cpaid-23.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Yes80c13,980$11,128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,851.7433945.7%155 W · 184 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked No31c13,761$4,261 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,261.382,53839.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L-8.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6394…9bb3backed No20c13,115$2,623 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,623450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-22.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa42e…9a1cbacked No20c12,600$2,520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,519.99666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.25per pick42cpaid+21%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x77fb…3e17backed Yes80c11,417$9,132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,284.77875%6 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.12per pick63cpaid+21.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x274f…fbf4backed Yes78c10,750$8,340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,4102290.9%20 W · 2 L+4.5wins+0.21per pick70cpaid+29.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x38c2…d3a7backed Yes80c10,125$8,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,025616.7%1 W · 5 L-2.5wins-0.42per pick58cpaid-79.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xa6ee…697bbacked Yes78c10,001$7,824 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,176.614443.2%19 W · 25 L-4.8wins-0.11per pick54cpaid-28.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8e68…d99bbacked No20c10,000$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0007062.9%44 W · 26 L+8.9wins+0.13per pick50cpaid+19.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xef50…e3bdbacked Yes79c9,482$7,508 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,973.651100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xac47…d234backed No46c9,171$4,219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,218.661764.7%11 W · 6 L+2.1wins+0.12per pick52cpaid+27%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed No20c9,041$1,819 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,819.2556547.8%270 W · 295 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked No20c8,206$1,653 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,652.71,68145.2%759 W · 922 L+6.8wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x12ec…41aebacked No20c6,863$1,373 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,372.61747.1%8 W · 9 L+1.7wins+0.10per pick37cpaid+31.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdf37…8b49backed No20c6,312$1,252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,251.872429.2%7 W · 17 L-3.5wins-0.14per pick44cpaid-31.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x585c…f0a7backed No20c6,000$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2005923.7%14 W · 45 L-6.1wins-0.10per pick34cpaid+8.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x08c1…28f7backed No21c5,773$1,212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,212.2520%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5165…175bbacked No20c5,137$1,027 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,027.42035%7 W · 13 L-2.2wins-0.11per pick46cpaid-33.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x35a6…cb8fbacked No21c5,099$1,071 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,070.8128.3%1 W · 11 L-3.1wins-0.26per pick34cpaid-86.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x48fe…b2b6backed Yes80c5,000$4,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0003855.3%21 W · 17 L+2.2wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+5.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe952…bde4backed Yes80c4,590$3,672 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$917.97540%2 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-48.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0e73…e5c1backed Yes80c4,430$3,540 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$890.861850%9 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-11.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x8b32…5950backed No19c4,166$808 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$807.584228.6%12 W · 30 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick31cpaid+16.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3257…2f3bbacked Yes75c4,000$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0001275%9 W · 3 L+2.9wins+0.24per pick51cpaid+47.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x64e9…eb4cbacked Yes79c4,000$3,160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8401764.7%11 W · 6 L+2.3wins+0.14per pick51cpaid+27.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x97e0…8194backed No21c4,000$850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$849.9711644.8%52 W · 64 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick47cpaid+5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcc30…c8a5backed Yes71c3,921$2,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,121.241450%7 W · 7 L+1.3wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+15.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x48be…73a8backed Yes58c3,432$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,432.16250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-14.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x14f3…0c3dbacked No24c3,305$778 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$778.041729.4%5 W · 12 L-2.6wins-0.16per pick45cpaid-28.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5543…e1f5backed No20c3,203$639 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$638.593721.6%8 W · 29 L-6.0wins-0.16per pick38cpaid-64.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x21c2…6749backed Yes68c3,163$2,146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,017.036553.8%35 W · 30 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-2.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Yes65c3,094$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,094.8723842.9%102 W · 136 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-13.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x90ba…63f3backed No21c3,050$641 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$640.57111.3%8 W · 63 L-5.6wins-0.08per pick19cpaid-31.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4b62…2e59backed No21c3,000$630 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6304252.4%22 W · 20 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+10.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6a40…c93fbacked No20c3,000$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6007057.1%40 W · 30 L+4.0wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+9.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0dd6…5f62backed Yes80c3,000$2,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6002766.7%18 W · 9 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick66cpaid-2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1244…c851backed No20c3,000$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6006459.4%38 W · 26 L+5.8wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+15.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x7c38…de5abacked No22c3,000$650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$649.996053.3%32 W · 28 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-9.8%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xe06c…62aebacked Yes65c2,800$1,820 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9807100%7 W · 0 L+1.9wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+39.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2cf8…a92dbacked Yes79c2,793$2,206 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$586.53475%3 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick75cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaa6c…4b49backed Yes56c2,665$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,165.182842.9%12 W · 16 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+8.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked No20c2,603$521 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$520.614846.6%69 W · 79 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaf2a…0525backed No21c2,571$540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5401241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-15.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf55…a7e0backed Yes56c2,500$1,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,099.99560%3 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.16per pick44cpaid+58.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x412f…30fabacked No20c2,490$498 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4982441.7%10 W · 14 L0.0wins0.00per pick42cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x94fb…d6cbbacked No19c2,400$466 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$465.987423%17 W · 57 L-3.3wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-10.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x57a4…f0c0backed Yes64c2,344$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$843.756448.4%31 W · 33 L-4.4wins-0.07per pick55cpaid-15.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Yes79c2,302$1,819 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$483.4911056.4%62 W · 48 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+1.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7a49…d9f5backed No28c2,247$633 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$633.0240744.5%181 W · 226 L-5.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-20.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed No22c2,237$497 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$496.937032.9%23 W · 47 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed No21c2,215$465 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$465.1576234.8%265 W · 497 L+9.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7350…9dc0backed Yes80c2,195$1,750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$445.412161.9%13 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick63cpaid-0.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc490…6507backed Yes68c2,105$1,441 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$663.583138.7%12 W · 19 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-28.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x54b5…4b31backed No32c2,070$660 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$660.19742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-15.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe1c3…7d73backed Yes77c2,012$1,559 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$452.912680.8%21 W · 5 L+5.3wins+0.20per pick60cpaid+39.3%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0x713d…53a9backed Yes65c2,000$1,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7001100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd05f…8777backed No20c2,000$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4006126.2%16 W · 45 L-7.8wins-0.13per pick39cpaid-52.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xe8d3…87bcbacked No21c2,000$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb98e…8823backed Yes80c1,982$1,585 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$396.37250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-37.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x01a0…8101backed Yes80c1,981$1,585 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$396.171100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0775…eca8backed Yes57c1,891$1,081 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$809.672050%10 W · 10 L+1.6wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+47.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7e33…1482backed Yes53c1,890$1,002 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$888.3366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.21per pick45cpaid+63.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked No20c1,875$375 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3759459.6%56 W · 38 L+6.2wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+13.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7298…fe8dbacked No21c1,862$391 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$391.028037.5%30 W · 50 L+0.3wins0.00per pick37cpaid-11%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21ca…3748backed Yes55c1,846$1,018 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$828.312100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x37e0…024ebacked No20c1,843$369 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$368.653534.3%12 W · 23 L-2.2wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-7.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x659c…85bbbacked Yes58c1,800$1,044 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7561546.7%7 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf4a5…398fbacked Yes77c1,775$1,373 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$401.863100%3 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+51.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x48de…95babacked Yes57c1,767$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$767.01250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-11.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf395…8e3cbacked Yes66c1,661$1,097 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$564.811656.3%9 W · 7 L+2.2wins+0.13per pick43cpaid+27.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed No4c1,658$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.6328241.5%117 W · 165 L-7.9wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-16.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5976…b3d4backed No21c1,563$328 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$328.13966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.9wins+0.21per pick45cpaid+33.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1e33…afb3backed Yes58c1,552$900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$651.725147.1%24 W · 27 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd120…19fcbacked Yes66c1,512$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$512.181973.7%14 W · 5 L+2.2wins+0.12per pick62cpaid+17.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3013…e5b2backed Yes54c1,500$805 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$694.97450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf509…67b9backed Yes73c1,494$1,095 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$399.421154.5%6 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick63cpaid-7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe786…b716backed Yes80c1,425$1,140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$285.14450%2 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.23per pick73cpaid-36.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Yes65c1,422$919 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$502.6133737.4%126 W · 211 L-11.2wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-20.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.