Bundesliga · resolved market
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-01-14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3f434c8ec92d0875639a8b6f3a97a9f77ad592f1396dcec3a892e1ed2644d6c3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,080,179
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,224,092
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,080,179 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 857 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5350…2fdabacked Yes | 80c | 136,000$108,690 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27,310 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 30c | 76,939$22,986 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22,985.96 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 80c | 67,447$53,921 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,525.83 | 151 | 34.4%52 W · 99 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72b4…7d67backed No | 20c | 34,375$6,875 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,875 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | -4.7wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7865…4af9backed No | 21c | 32,840$6,868 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,868.15 | 45 | 24.4%11 W · 34 L | -3.5wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 20c | 29,093$5,855 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,855.49 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 25c | 27,714$6,938 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,938.23 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dae…4688backed No | 21c | 25,500$5,280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,280 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57cd…a0fbbacked No | 21c | 25,400$5,334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,334 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +26%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ade…f5b0backed No | 21c | 25,200$5,292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,292 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -42%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2759…2b38backed No | 20c | 25,000$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 24cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe3d4…2bacbacked Yes | 80c | 22,468$17,974 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,493.59 | 47 | 72.3%34 W · 13 L | +5.5wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa196…5b78backed No | 21c | 20,420$4,234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,233.93 | 98 | 31.6%31 W · 67 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -26%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd836…ea78backed Yes | 80c | 20,000$16,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,000 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14ac…cb21backed Yes | 79c | 20,000$15,875 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,125 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 20c | 19,410$3,883 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,883.05 | 698 | 51.9%362 W · 336 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd776…ffebbacked No | 20c | 18,758$3,752 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,751.66 | 43 | 41.9%18 W · 25 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7690…74e1backed Yes | 80c | 16,666$13,333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,333.25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f5e…e7dbbacked No | 21c | 15,971$3,354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,354 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 22c | 15,362$3,455 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,455.22 | 751 | 42.5%319 W · 432 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88d1…18dabacked Yes | 70c | 14,282$9,997 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,284.55 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +45.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb875…68a8backed No | 21c | 14,080$2,957 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,956.8 | 54 | 44.4%24 W · 30 L | -5.5wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Yes | 80c | 13,980$11,128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,851.74 | 339 | 45.7%155 W · 184 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 31c | 13,761$4,261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,261.38 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6394…9bb3backed No | 20c | 13,115$2,623 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,623 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa42e…9a1cbacked No | 20c | 12,600$2,520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,519.99 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +21%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77fb…3e17backed Yes | 80c | 11,417$9,132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,284.77 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x274f…fbf4backed Yes | 78c | 10,750$8,340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,410 | 22 | 90.9%20 W · 2 L | +4.5wins | +0.21per pick | 70cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x38c2…d3a7backed Yes | 80c | 10,125$8,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,025 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.5wins | -0.42per pick | 58cpaid | -79.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa6ee…697bbacked Yes | 78c | 10,001$7,824 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,176.61 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -4.8wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8e68…d99bbacked No | 20c | 10,000$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 70 | 62.9%44 W · 26 L | +8.9wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xef50…e3bdbacked Yes | 79c | 9,482$7,508 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,973.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac47…d234backed No | 46c | 9,171$4,219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,218.66 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +27%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed No | 20c | 9,041$1,819 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,819.25 | 565 | 47.8%270 W · 295 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 20c | 8,206$1,653 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,652.7 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12ec…41aebacked No | 20c | 6,863$1,373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,372.6 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf37…8b49backed No | 20c | 6,312$1,252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,251.87 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -3.5wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x585c…f0a7backed No | 20c | 6,000$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,200 | 59 | 23.7%14 W · 45 L | -6.1wins | -0.10per pick | 34cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x08c1…28f7backed No | 21c | 5,773$1,212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,212.25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5165…175bbacked No | 20c | 5,137$1,027 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,027.4 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x35a6…cb8fbacked No | 21c | 5,099$1,071 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,070.8 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -3.1wins | -0.26per pick | 34cpaid | -86.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x48fe…b2b6backed Yes | 80c | 5,000$4,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe952…bde4backed Yes | 80c | 4,590$3,672 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$917.97 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e73…e5c1backed Yes | 80c | 4,430$3,540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$890.86 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b32…5950backed No | 19c | 4,166$808 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$807.58 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3257…2f3bbacked Yes | 75c | 4,000$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.9wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x64e9…eb4cbacked Yes | 79c | 4,000$3,160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$840 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +2.3wins | +0.14per pick | 51cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x97e0…8194backed No | 21c | 4,000$850 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$849.97 | 116 | 44.8%52 W · 64 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc30…c8a5backed Yes | 71c | 3,921$2,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,121.24 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x48be…73a8backed Yes | 58c | 3,432$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,432.16 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14f3…0c3dbacked No | 24c | 3,305$778 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$778.04 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -2.6wins | -0.16per pick | 45cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5543…e1f5backed No | 20c | 3,203$639 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$638.59 | 37 | 21.6%8 W · 29 L | -6.0wins | -0.16per pick | 38cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x21c2…6749backed Yes | 68c | 3,163$2,146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,017.03 | 65 | 53.8%35 W · 30 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Yes | 65c | 3,094$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,094.87 | 238 | 42.9%102 W · 136 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed No | 21c | 3,050$641 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$640.5 | 71 | 11.3%8 W · 63 L | -5.6wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4b62…2e59backed No | 21c | 3,000$630 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$630 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a40…c93fbacked No | 20c | 3,000$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0dd6…5f62backed Yes | 80c | 3,000$2,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1244…c851backed No | 20c | 3,000$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 64 | 59.4%38 W · 26 L | +5.8wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7c38…de5abacked No | 22c | 3,000$650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$649.99 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe06c…62aebacked Yes | 65c | 2,800$1,820 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$980 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2cf8…a92dbacked Yes | 79c | 2,793$2,206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$586.53 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa6c…4b49backed Yes | 56c | 2,665$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,165.18 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked No | 20c | 2,603$521 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520.6 | 148 | 46.6%69 W · 79 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf2a…0525backed No | 21c | 2,571$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf55…a7e0backed Yes | 56c | 2,500$1,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,099.99 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +58.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x412f…30fabacked No | 20c | 2,490$498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$498 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94fb…d6cbbacked No | 19c | 2,400$466 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$465.98 | 74 | 23%17 W · 57 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57a4…f0c0backed Yes | 64c | 2,344$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$843.75 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Yes | 79c | 2,302$1,819 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$483.49 | 110 | 56.4%62 W · 48 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 28c | 2,247$633 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$633.02 | 407 | 44.5%181 W · 226 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed No | 22c | 2,237$497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$496.93 | 70 | 32.9%23 W · 47 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed No | 21c | 2,215$465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$465.15 | 762 | 34.8%265 W · 497 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7350…9dc0backed Yes | 80c | 2,195$1,750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$445.41 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc490…6507backed Yes | 68c | 2,105$1,441 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$663.58 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed No | 32c | 2,070$660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$660.19 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1c3…7d73backed Yes | 77c | 2,012$1,559 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$452.91 | 26 | 80.8%21 W · 5 L | +5.3wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x713d…53a9backed Yes | 65c | 2,000$1,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$700 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd05f…8777backed No | 20c | 2,000$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 61 | 26.2%16 W · 45 L | -7.8wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe8d3…87bcbacked No | 21c | 2,000$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb98e…8823backed Yes | 80c | 1,982$1,585 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$396.37 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01a0…8101backed Yes | 80c | 1,981$1,585 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$396.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0775…eca8backed Yes | 57c | 1,891$1,081 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$809.67 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e33…1482backed Yes | 53c | 1,890$1,002 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$888.3 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 45cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked No | 20c | 1,875$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375 | 94 | 59.6%56 W · 38 L | +6.2wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7298…fe8dbacked No | 21c | 1,862$391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$391.02 | 80 | 37.5%30 W · 50 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ca…3748backed Yes | 55c | 1,846$1,018 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$828.31 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37e0…024ebacked No | 20c | 1,843$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$368.65 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x659c…85bbbacked Yes | 58c | 1,800$1,044 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$756 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4a5…398fbacked Yes | 77c | 1,775$1,373 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$401.86 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x48de…95babacked Yes | 57c | 1,767$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$767.01 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf395…8e3cbacked Yes | 66c | 1,661$1,097 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$564.81 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +2.2wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed No | 4c | 1,658$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.63 | 282 | 41.5%117 W · 165 L | -7.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5976…b3d4backed No | 21c | 1,563$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.13 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.21per pick | 45cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e33…afb3backed Yes | 58c | 1,552$900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$651.72 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd120…19fcbacked Yes | 66c | 1,512$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$512.18 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +2.2wins | +0.12per pick | 62cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3013…e5b2backed Yes | 54c | 1,500$805 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$694.97 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf509…67b9backed Yes | 73c | 1,494$1,095 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$399.42 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe786…b716backed Yes | 80c | 1,425$1,140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.14 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Yes | 65c | 1,422$919 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$502.61 | 337 | 37.4%126 W · 211 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-01-14?this page
- Will 1. FC Köln vs. FC Bayern München end in a draw?No won
- Will 1. FC Köln win on 2026-01-14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.