TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Lol · resolved market

LoL: BNK FEARX vs DN Freecs - Game 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
BNK FEARXof BNK FEARX, DN Freecs
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$399,277
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$457,281

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $399,277 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 283 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x959f…9e2fbacked DN Freecs0c16,483$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.4810352.4%54 W · 49 L-10.0wins-0.10per pick62cpaid-21.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x8d36…68fdbacked BNK FEARX62c16,086$9,992 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,093.4825751%131 W · 126 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8292…f774backed DN Freecs10c15,000$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,50016238.9%63 W · 99 L-5.9wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8a65…9e1cbacked DN Freecs5c14,750$715 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$714.99137.7%1 W · 12 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick6cpaid-30.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0775…b0c5backed BNK FEARX64c14,413$9,268 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,145.4225547.8%122 W · 133 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2307…3934backed DN Freecs38c12,902$4,874 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,873.7554353.8%292 W · 251 L+32.6wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+15.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xcae6…4f85backed DN Freecs21c12,897$2,762 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,762.0567276.9%517 W · 155 L+87.3wins+0.13per pick64cpaid+30.2%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x5286…0d47backed DN Freecs32c12,486$3,999 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,999.4527637.3%103 W · 173 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked BNK FEARX72c12,378$8,871 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,507.442,40642.6%1,026 W · 1,380 L+21.5wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xef26…05babacked DN Freecs36c9,449$3,415 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,415.131,25937.6%473 W · 786 L+34.1wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8568…bc38backed DN Freecs35c9,239$3,239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,238.96216.1%10 W · 52 L-3.7wins-0.06per pick22cpaid-34.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x85d5…45eebacked BNK FEARX62c8,109$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,108.559558.3%347 W · 248 L-29.3wins-0.05per pick63cpaid-10.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe3d4…2bacbacked BNK FEARX77c6,630$5,080 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,550.6770162.2%436 W · 265 L-37.3wins-0.05per pick68cpaid-8.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4818…fde0backed DN Freecs38c6,329$2,378 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,377.8376953.4%411 W · 358 L+13.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1341…0853backed BNK FEARX59c5,155$3,045 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,109.751,82745.6%834 W · 993 L+26.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7645…3117backed DN Freecs38c5,000$1,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,90082352.7%434 W · 389 L+41.8wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+15.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xde0c…a715backed DN Freecs40c4,620$1,870 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,870.1325269.8%176 W · 76 L+13.7wins+0.05per pick64cpaid+5.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x14a0…22bbbacked BNK FEARX61c4,160$2,527 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,633.241,15568.1%786 W · 369 L+35.1wins+0.03per pick65cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x836f…a315backed DN Freecs24c3,907$920 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$920.483327.3%9 W · 24 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick23cpaid+33.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe9a9…3ba9backed DN Freecs18c3,400$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60033845.3%153 W · 185 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x689a…97a4backed BNK FEARX74c3,170$2,349 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$821.129741.2%40 W · 57 L-0.1wins0.00per pick41cpaid-10.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xebc7…4003backed BNK FEARX64c3,015$1,944 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,070.6728361.5%174 W · 109 L+18.0wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+11.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1064…f153backed DN Freecs33c2,919$964 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$964.1149549.1%243 W · 252 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3a7a…15a4backed DN Freecs38c2,632$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00018945.5%86 W · 103 L+4.8wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0224…292abacked BNK FEARX72c2,621$1,887 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$733.9525244.4%112 W · 140 L+8.6wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked BNK FEARX63c2,597$1,625 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$971.931,59842.4%677 W · 921 L-17.9wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d93…2cf1backed DN Freecs40c2,517$1,007 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,006.9345248%217 W · 235 L-12.7wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed DN Freecs39c2,502$976 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$975.93,58440.1%1,437 W · 2,147 L+31.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf6f9…bff5backed BNK FEARX55c2,452$1,343 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,108.6613355.6%74 W · 59 L+4.8wins+0.04per pick52cpaid-5.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa469…0782backed DN Freecs35c2,416$836 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$835.681,32253.2%703 W · 619 L+36.2wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa502…8c2bbacked DN Freecs38c2,368$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$900944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-9.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed DN Freecs40c2,201$881 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$880.551,59253.7%855 W · 737 L+57.2wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+8.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd3b1…19bbbacked DN Freecs47c2,146$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00018755.1%103 W · 84 L-8.8wins-0.05per pick60cpaid-9.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9e5f…8a41backed DN Freecs27c2,114$580 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$579.7216040%64 W · 96 L-0.4wins0.00per pick40cpaid-24.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc3b8…b4d8backed DN Freecs48c2,078$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00043151.3%221 W · 210 L-5.0wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xce6d…6130backed BNK FEARX65c2,072$1,338 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$733.1414757.1%84 W · 63 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick55cpaid-5.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x755d…37e7backed DN Freecs50c2,007$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000.415166.2%100 W · 51 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick65cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xafd4…7e61backed BNK FEARX50c2,000$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0001,20054.1%649 W · 551 L+28.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5809…9868backed DN Freecs3c2,000$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6097427.8%271 W · 703 L-23.1wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-28.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x90f6…71eebacked DN Freecs39c2,000$780 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78014041.4%58 W · 82 L+6.4wins+0.05per pick37cpaid+23.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7a0f…1305backed BNK FEARX65c2,000$1,305 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$695.321,46361.4%899 W · 564 L-19.5wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3445…d229backed DN Freecs3c1,834$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.025833.6%21 W · 562 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick3cpaid+178.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2733…ac38backed DN Freecs39c1,821$704 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$703.667536%27 W · 48 L-3.7wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-16.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8804…a3a7backed BNK FEARX56c1,771$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$771.4315450%77 W · 77 L+4.9wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-1.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfd14…2267backed DN Freecs17c1,614$267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$266.752,36232%755 W · 1,607 L+42.0wins+0.02per pick30cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5d5c…4302backed BNK FEARX62c1,607$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$607.4217949.2%88 W · 91 L-5.1wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x31b5…6128backed BNK FEARX63c1,584$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$584.1923657.2%135 W · 101 L-15.6wins-0.07per pick64cpaid-14.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x04bd…39a0backed DN Freecs38c1,500$570 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5701,22945.1%554 W · 675 L+48.5wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+5.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed DN Freecs30c1,473$439 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$438.951,25838.6%485 W · 773 L-61.8wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-20.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0fbc…62a3backed DN Freecs50c1,419$704 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$704.2463161.2%386 W · 245 L+10.4wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcbf4…e3a6backed DN Freecs36c1,400$504 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50414038.6%54 W · 86 L-3.8wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-4.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x307d…9163backed DN Freecs35c1,381$488 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$487.91,18352%615 W · 568 L-14.3wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb5b7…7ffabacked DN Freecs38c1,284$488 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48814835.1%52 W · 96 L-9.3wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-19.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x41a3…017dbacked DN Freecs35c1,170$406 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$406.0492354.3%501 W · 422 L-17.1wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-4.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8e3a…780cbacked DN Freecs36c1,101$396 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$396.472227.3%6 W · 16 L-1.8wins-0.08per pick35cpaid-43.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4283…fbd4backed BNK FEARX60c1,070$646 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$423.945041.1%185 W · 265 L-25.4wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-18.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x395f…dcacbacked BNK FEARX63c1,044$660 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$384.426245.8%120 W · 142 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe922…39b3backed DN Freecs38c1,038$394 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$394.481,30555.9%729 W · 576 L+44.4wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+7.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x85d5…bbf0backed DN Freecs14c1,029$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.1212937.2%48 W · 81 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xba0c…f837backed DN Freecs45c1,000$445 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44521857.8%126 W · 92 L+18.6wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+16%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x182d…73e9backed DN Freecs39c1,000$390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3901,06747%502 W · 565 L+3.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x82f9…6910backed BNK FEARX58c1,000$580 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4207374%54 W · 19 L+4.6wins+0.06per pick68cpaid+11.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc537…f385backed DN Freecs1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10270%0 W · 27 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6260…fccbbacked DN Freecs2c1,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206297%44 W · 585 L-2.2wins0.00per pick7cpaid-33.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0563…8b03backed DN Freecs29c999.99$285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28568443.6%298 W · 386 L+16.7wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6e01…2c8abacked DN Freecs15c999.97$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15014840.5%60 W · 88 L-5.0wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-4.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7a94…5e99backed BNK FEARX63c998.48$629 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$369.444443.2%19 W · 25 L-4.7wins-0.11per pick54cpaid-30.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf16c…d7f4backed BNK FEARX78c962.09$746 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$216.435848.3%28 W · 30 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd3b0…329ebacked BNK FEARX61c820$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$319.82,00458.2%1,166 W · 838 L+86.9wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+9.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x429a…cdf6backed BNK FEARX66c805.03$533 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$272.3862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.8wins+0.23per pick40cpaid+58%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4ffd…f591backed BNK FEARX70c714.29$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$214.29785.7%6 W · 1 L+1.7wins+0.24per pick62cpaid+30.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8d39…2989backed DN Freecs24c713.97$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.03875%6 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.18per pick57cpaid+14.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xaacf…5f84backed BNK FEARX66c700$460 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24030661.1%187 W · 119 L-7.4wins-0.02per pick64cpaid-4.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa7ac…592fbacked BNK FEARX76c700$535 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1653751.4%19 W · 18 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-4.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa995…1be0backed DN Freecs14c700$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$986256.5%35 W · 27 L+3.0wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+9.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3b89…fdf9backed BNK FEARX69c699.99$482 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21852650.8%267 W · 259 L+11.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xca67…c864backed BNK FEARX62c639.98$396 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$243.5918744.9%84 W · 103 L+7.2wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+5.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfc7c…d9d7backed DN Freecs30c599.99$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1804436.4%16 W · 28 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-9.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x24ac…f6b4backed DN Freecs34c588.7$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20034631.2%108 W · 238 L-10.2wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-11.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xec9a…ad34backed DN Freecs26c581.96$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15212137.2%45 W · 76 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+11.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x480e…71e9backed DN Freecs46c549.99$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$255.526453.8%142 W · 122 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb80d…0ac1backed BNK FEARX60c549.98$328 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$221.4950547.7%241 W · 264 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf332…3c89backed DN Freecs36c549.01$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20018839.9%75 W · 113 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x64a8…7bc3backed DN Freecs37c540.54$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20047953.2%255 W · 224 L-26.7wins-0.06per pick59cpaid-14.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4fb0…3182backed DN Freecs22c521.46$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.387754.5%42 W · 35 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked DN Freecs30c516.85$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.8213525.2%34 W · 101 L-6.0wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-20.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd9a5…c602backed DN Freecs37c500$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18529927.8%83 W · 216 L-0.2wins0.00per pick28cpaid-23%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf5d0…d9e8backed DN Freecs35c500$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.0485746.3%397 W · 460 L+17.4wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1f4f…46c2backed BNK FEARX62c500$310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19040347.4%191 W · 212 L-5.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x95b8…47c9backed DN Freecs41c495.46$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.1466947.8%320 W · 349 L-0.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe057…7a3fbacked DN Freecs41c487.8$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001060%6 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick57cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x59aa…3376backed BNK FEARX74c486.24$357 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.811,13143.1%487 W · 644 L+0.9wins0.00per pick43cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd599…bf55backed DN Freecs7c484.43$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.7317933%59 W · 120 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-15.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x68a6…e96bbacked BNK FEARX62c483.87$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.871,21848.7%593 W · 625 L+0.7wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x968f…2a1fbacked DN Freecs42c473.86$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20022646.5%105 W · 121 L-7.8wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xab8b…87acbacked DN Freecs36c470$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.218747.1%88 W · 99 L+10.4wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+11.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x86b1…c094backed DN Freecs18c440$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.21,05628.5%301 W · 755 L+21.3wins+0.02per pick26cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3938…c6cbbacked DN Freecs40c409$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.5121059%124 W · 86 L-6.9wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-5.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed BNK FEARX70c402.89$283 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.181,73144.2%765 W · 966 L-28.4wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-15.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2f4b…69debacked BNK FEARX70c394.26$276 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.281,04846.1%483 W · 565 L-43.8wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-8.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.