TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Lol · resolved market

Game Handicap: BFX (-1.5) vs DN Freecs (+1.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
DN Freecsof BNK FEARX, DN Freecs
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$103,281
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$105,929

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $103,281 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 103 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc257…358ebacked BNK FEARX58c70,000$40,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40,6004544.4%20 W · 25 L+2.7wins+0.06per pick38cpaid+24.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed DN Freecs42c69,983$29,393 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40,589.911750.4%59 W · 58 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-7.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8165…f688backed DN Freecs44c10,000$4,399 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,601.1814753.7%79 W · 68 L+0.4wins0.00per pick54cpaid+3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1341…0853backed BNK FEARX56c7,088$3,970 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,969.831,82745.6%834 W · 993 L+26.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7645…3117backed DN Freecs42c4,285$1,787 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,498.1582352.7%434 W · 389 L+41.8wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+15.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd5a1…0544backed BNK FEARX57c3,702$2,124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,123.6419844.9%89 W · 109 L+1.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid+3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb9ab…f282backed DN Freecs44c3,500$1,534 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,965.641,02952.3%538 W · 491 L+27.2wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7a0f…1305backed BNK FEARX56c3,333$1,866 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,866.481,46361.4%899 W · 564 L-19.5wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4818…fde0backed BNK FEARX58c3,100$1,798 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,79876953.4%411 W · 358 L+13.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcbf4…e3a6backed DN Freecs40c1,250$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75014038.6%54 W · 86 L-3.8wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-4.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4f8c…0e0cbacked DN Freecs45c1,111$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$610.8112653.2%67 W · 59 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-0.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5bd3…394cbacked BNK FEARX56c960.96$538 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$538.146331.7%20 W · 43 L-9.3wins-0.15per pick47cpaid-26.1%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x78fa…d5c3backed DN Freecs45c757.6$341 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$416.6811443%49 W · 65 L+9.1wins+0.08per pick35cpaid+27.6%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x94d8…8835backed BNK FEARX60c744.37$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4501758.8%10 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb917…02c6backed BNK FEARX56c700$392 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39211060%66 W · 44 L+10.2wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+23.2%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xf5d0…d9e8backed DN Freecs43c699.74$301 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$398.8585746.3%397 W · 460 L+17.4wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7eda…4bb7backed BNK FEARX57c695.76$397 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$396.5848852%254 W · 234 L-2.4wins0.00per pick53cpaid-1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xeffd…5a86backed DN Freecs39c655.31$256 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$399.7444047.5%209 W · 231 L+11.7wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x85d5…bbf0backed BNK FEARX57c620.99$356 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$355.7312937.2%48 W · 81 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x53ab…65aabacked BNK FEARX56c599.99$336 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$335.991,60948.4%779 W · 830 L+24.6wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ec4…6529backed DN Freecs44c595.03$262 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$333.2813136.6%48 W · 83 L-6.9wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-10.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xcf38…848bbacked BNK FEARX57c568$324 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$323.7614352.4%75 W · 68 L+0.4wins0.00per pick52cpaid-3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x99fe…b61cbacked DN Freecs43c550$237 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$313.536246.4%168 W · 194 L-0.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8a2c…5172backed BNK FEARX59c547.46$323 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32343640.6%177 W · 259 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8059…f1f3backed BNK FEARX56c500$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28024648.4%119 W · 127 L-13.8wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-11.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0775…b0c5backed DN Freecs52c496.39$258 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$238.0225547.8%122 W · 133 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0599…3c6abacked BNK FEARX57c480.68$276 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$275.5982161%501 W · 320 L+1.1wins0.00per pick61cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe33b…6de8backed BNK FEARX13c404.71$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.51714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick19cpaid-80.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7234…1d85backed BNK FEARX59c400$236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23614637.7%55 W · 91 L-5.0wins-0.03per pick41cpaid+10.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2714…960fbacked DN Freecs40c300$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18021150.7%107 W · 104 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x2e5b…2b2dbacked DN Freecs40c250.68$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.6826155.9%146 W · 115 L+8.5wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+10.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaabf…9e7fbacked BNK FEARX61c238.63$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.9875%6 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.08per pick67cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfc65…19a0backed DN Freecs42c238.1$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.12128.6%6 W · 15 L-2.1wins-0.10per pick39cpaid-43.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd286…4c1bbacked DN Freecs45c222.45$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.451060%6 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+22%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6fe9…9c50backed BNK FEARX56c200$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11226354%142 W · 121 L-16.8wins-0.06per pick60cpaid-12.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x94f1…b9e7backed BNK FEARX59c196.54$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.9658046.9%272 W · 308 L-2.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid+2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x93f4…ea90backed DN Freecs36c195.6$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.181,11049%544 W · 566 L+42.0wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+10.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5b2a…bc9bbacked BNK FEARX56c178.57$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100714.3%1 W · 6 L-3.2wins-0.46per pick61cpaid-77.7%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x3230…782dbacked DN Freecs66c149.71$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.711850%9 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-26.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xea1d…9984backed BNK FEARX37c146.68$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.32933.3%3 W · 6 L-2.0wins-0.23per pick56cpaid-49.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8688…a520backed DN Freecs42c140$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.216251.9%84 W · 78 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfc8b…d3d6backed BNK FEARX57c125$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.254654.3%25 W · 21 L+2.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+0.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked DN Freecs40c119.59$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.1313525.2%34 W · 101 L-6.0wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-20.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9ee3…49c0backed BNK FEARX59c118.59$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.67955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+8.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa825…2ef0backed DN Freecs41c116.55$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.7618342.6%78 W · 105 L-14.6wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-18%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe02f…3d4cbacked DN Freecs45c116$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.1210652.8%56 W · 50 L-7.2wins-0.07per pick60cpaid-13.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb38c…b2c9backed BNK FEARX59c110$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.943148%207 W · 224 L+13.7wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+10.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x83d0…c927backed DN Freecs38c105.1$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.112054.2%65 W · 55 L-0.2wins0.00per pick54cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6c82…6150backed DN Freecs42c100$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5853954.7%295 W · 244 L+12.0wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf32b…90c8backed BNK FEARX40c100$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$405044%22 W · 28 L+5.8wins+0.12per pick32cpaid+27.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xfb92…b02dbacked BNK FEARX35c99.99$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3511745.3%53 W · 64 L-7.6wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-16.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x50f6…b8c6backed BNK FEARX56c97.76$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$556051.7%31 W · 29 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc86…7e77backed DN Freecs44c93.95$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.3723243.5%101 W · 131 L-9.8wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-15%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x63f2…e0c9backed DN Freecs41c88.59$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.2718161.3%111 W · 70 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+6.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xaf16…65a6backed BNK FEARX61c85.48$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.1419055.3%105 W · 85 L-11.6wins-0.06per pick61cpaid-13.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc6fa…51e5backed BNK FEARX59c83.75$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.4113054.6%71 W · 59 L+9.7wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+17.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6fe2…607bbacked DN Freecs38c79.99$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.595058%29 W · 21 L+2.8wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+8.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed BNK FEARX23c78$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.8289810.7%96 W · 802 L+2.6wins0.00per pick10cpaid-36.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x341b…4a23backed BNK FEARX58c74.6$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.631154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.6wins+0.15per pick40cpaid+64.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd011…ac5dbacked BNK FEARX56c71.43$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4025648.4%124 W · 132 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid+0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xef77…92dbbacked BNK FEARX56c71.41$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.99250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-20.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked BNK FEARX25c70.44$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.33957.1%28 W · 367 L-122.2wins-0.31per pick38cpaid-74.1%equal weight18-0.29 edge/pick
0x38d0…5ea8backed DN Freecs44c56.82$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.8216048.1%77 W · 83 L+14.6wins+0.09per pick39cpaid+18.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x7f6a…a9f8backed DN Freecs49c51.51$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.516759.7%40 W · 27 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a87…fb21backed DN Freecs50c50$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$255149%25 W · 26 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-12.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1f4f…46c2backed DN Freecs40c44.7$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.8240347.4%191 W · 212 L-5.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x796f…c23dbacked DN Freecs45c44.44$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.44683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.20per pick64cpaid+46.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4c30…d531backed DN Freecs45c44.44$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.4413951.8%72 W · 67 L-3.4wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-2.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb2d…1dc7backed BNK FEARX35c44$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.362948.3%14 W · 15 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid+11.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdcdf…9643backed BNK FEARX64c42.73$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.3510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1f3f…5878backed DN Freecs41c41.68$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.5944335.4%157 W · 286 L+13.9wins+0.03per pick32cpaid+9.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x06c4…ecf0backed BNK FEARX64c37.83$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.2110%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9488…434ebacked BNK FEARX56c35.95$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.13366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.12per pick55cpaid+25.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e9a…4f4fbacked BNK FEARX56c35.75$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.02250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-32.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8ca1…60eabacked BNK FEARX56c35.71$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20560%3 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf1be…cff5backed BNK FEARX56c35.66$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.97333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a07…923fbacked BNK FEARX66c35.11$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2335164.1%225 W · 126 L+9.3wins+0.03per pick61cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b6e…7a44backed BNK FEARX56c34.3$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.2110%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x56e5…450cbacked DN Freecs73c34.13$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.213447.1%16 W · 18 L-5.4wins-0.16per pick63cpaid-31.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed DN Freecs38c34.12$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.031,83117.1%313 W · 1,518 L-236.0wins-0.13per pick30cpaid-46%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0xe7c3…0539backed BNK FEARX56c33.93$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1910%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf63c…0bd3backed BNK FEARX62c32.26$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x478a…fec7backed BNK FEARX56c32.14$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+19%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xae6e…b24fbacked BNK FEARX63c31.89$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.092060%12 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick65cpaid-7.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8eee…74e0backed BNK FEARX63c30.16$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191947.4%9 W · 10 L-2.3wins-0.12per pick59cpaid-21.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb44f…74c3backed DN Freecs45c28.67$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.772100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+90.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x596a…7a0fbacked DN Freecs40c28.6$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.041,24134.7%431 W · 810 L-2.0wins0.00per pick35cpaid-5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1b30…99cdbacked BNK FEARX56c27.96$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.663256.3%18 W · 14 L+2.4wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+28.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x93f1…b99dbacked BNK FEARX60c27.1$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.36847.1%32 W · 36 L+2.6wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+13.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe00f…c254backed DN Freecs45c26.11$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.361080%8 W · 2 L+2.1wins+0.21per pick59cpaid+37.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x05f9…f351backed BNK FEARX56c25$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1415153.6%81 W · 70 L+17.3wins+0.11per pick42cpaid+23.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x1581…b2febacked BNK FEARX56c24.29$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.6333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick48cpaid-56.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfa06…5e96backed BNK FEARX64c23.44$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1520%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x17b0…523bbacked BNK FEARX64c23.44$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-24.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe315…3911backed BNK FEARX60c22.22$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.2410549.5%52 W · 53 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick51cpaid+0.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x51dc…a656backed BNK FEARX56c22$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.3210%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9d70…fdd9backed BNK FEARX57c20$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.44748.9%23 W · 24 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+15.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcda0…a51abacked BNK FEARX57c20$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.418165.7%119 W · 62 L+7.5wins+0.04per pick62cpaid+7.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5db0…73f1backed BNK FEARX59c16.82$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104660.9%28 W · 18 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick61cpaid+4.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa6e3…4476backed BNK FEARX62c16.15$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0110%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.