TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NHL · resolved market

Ducks vs. Canadiens

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Ducksof Ducks, Canadiens
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,312,180

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,312,180 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 712 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NHL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9976…67dabacked Ducks43c411,111$176,778 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$234,333.219848.5%96 W · 102 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x03e8…1697backed Canadiens58c381,092$221,383 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221,383.1667051%342 W · 328 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked Ducks42c191,173$79,665 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111,508.5451550.7%261 W · 254 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3b5c…126ebacked Canadiens58c109,899$63,381 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63,381.3524349.8%121 W · 122 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc257…358ebacked Canadiens58c88,000$51,040 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51,039.9948545.4%220 W · 265 L-7.8wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-6.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc660…bd28backed Canadiens57c63,224$36,037 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36,037.4548549.7%241 W · 244 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd92…6b2abacked Ducks42c60,000$25,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34,799.9614650.7%74 W · 72 L+8.5wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+13.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Ducks42c59,043$24,827 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34,216.1161950.1%310 W · 309 L-7.6wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x20d6…3856backed Canadiens57c45,000$25,650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25,65026849.6%133 W · 135 L+5.9wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+8.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Canadiens58c43,403$25,174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25,173.6139047.9%187 W · 203 L-13.2wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-6.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6a72…33eebacked Ducks55c40,101$22,228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,873.431,34554.8%737 W · 608 L+21.0wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaa07…2125backed Ducks41c40,000$16,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23,6001,07049.9%534 W · 536 L+22.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x72b4…7d67backed Canadiens57c27,846$15,872 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,872.222540%10 W · 15 L-4.1wins-0.16per pick56cpaid-29.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xaca2…b9a1backed Canadiens44c25,032$10,977 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,977.2312838.3%49 W · 79 L-4.3wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x842a…7422backed Ducks42c19,048$8,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,047.6240356.3%227 W · 176 L+5.3wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Canadiens57c18,894$10,770 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,769.581,19050.7%603 W · 587 L+13.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3ae5…ead2backed Canadiens58c16,784$9,814 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,8141154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+14.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe790…eadcbacked Canadiens53c15,591$8,294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,293.7627448.9%134 W · 140 L-6.4wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-13.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb6ae…4df8backed Ducks42c15,218$6,410 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,808.2436748%176 W · 191 L-12.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-6.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc6b1…78fdbacked Canadiens57c15,159$8,641 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,640.635639.3%22 W · 34 L-4.1wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-12.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3846…9742backed Canadiens58c15,000$8,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,700683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.23per pick61cpaid+36.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2a2c…9bc1backed Canadiens57c14,130$8,054 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,053.8240351.9%209 W · 194 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xead0…f3babacked Ducks42c12,500$5,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,25032946.8%154 W · 175 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc49f…9e05backed Canadiens59c12,000$7,080 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,079.9726058.8%153 W · 107 L+17.7wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+15%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1467…4372backed Ducks43c11,628$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,627.9132151.7%166 W · 155 L-1.5wins0.00per pick52cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3e04…564dbacked Canadiens56c10,928$6,170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,169.581,89152.4%991 W · 900 L+36.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb7f5…c669backed Ducks43c9,228$3,966 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,262.3651045.5%232 W · 278 L-9.3wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x39d3…9ef0backed Canadiens57c8,015$4,569 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,568.5518641.9%78 W · 108 L-8.5wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-11.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbd09…a188backed Canadiens37c7,594$2,776 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,775.8761748.5%299 W · 318 L+0.4wins0.00per pick48cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Ducks79c7,078$5,611 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,467.2699638.2%380 W · 616 L-10.3wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-12.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd3fa…a26cbacked Canadiens53c6,784$3,615 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,615.4515145%68 W · 83 L-7.3wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-9.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Canadiens15c6,533$980 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98062951.2%322 W · 307 L+18.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Ducks45c5,862$2,617 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,244.91,44149.2%709 W · 732 L+6.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Ducks42c5,613$2,360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,252.512,89451.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L+58.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d5c…4f26backed Canadiens58c5,603$3,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,2508748.3%42 W · 45 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5116…58c4backed Canadiens58c5,555$3,222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,221.8275251.7%389 W · 363 L-2.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb68…a240backed Ducks42c5,238$2,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,038.150049.6%248 W · 252 L+16.4wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Ducks42c5,160$2,167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,992.8489547%421 W · 474 L-18.0wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb19f…dd0ebacked Canadiens39c5,128$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0005660.7%34 W · 22 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+8.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd809…6542backed Ducks42c5,085$2,142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,943.519150.8%97 W · 94 L-5.3wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-10%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf5e1…5ad0backed Canadiens57c5,000$2,850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,85033151.7%171 W · 160 L+9.0wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x91fd…1cdebacked Ducks42c5,000$2,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,90013948.2%67 W · 72 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe4fc…8af7backed Ducks41c5,000$2,070 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,929.9660249.5%298 W · 304 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Ducks58c4,861$2,805 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,056.6689636.9%331 W · 565 L-30.9wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-26.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x808c…b77ebacked Ducks42c4,747$1,994 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,753.011330.8%4 W · 9 L-2.3wins-0.17per pick48cpaid-25%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Ducks42c4,523$1,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,623.3479350.1%397 W · 396 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-3.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d21…abc5backed Canadiens57c4,484$2,556 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,556.0714837.2%55 W · 93 L-7.9wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-15.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4a0c…3190backed Canadiens57c4,200$2,394 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,3941070%7 W · 3 L+1.8wins+0.18per pick52cpaid+22.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Canadiens57c4,104$2,354 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,353.691,43450.8%728 W · 706 L-10.7wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7b47…d615backed Canadiens57c4,000$2,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,30019353.9%104 W · 89 L+7.1wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd6a6…7189backed Ducks43c4,000$1,720 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,280650%3 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xebc7…4003backed Ducks42c4,000$1,680 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,319.9411553%61 W · 54 L+5.2wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x13a1…d9bcbacked Canadiens49c3,813$1,867 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,867.457157.8%330 W · 241 L+12.7wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Ducks55c3,638$2,002 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,636.753,70450.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L+105.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x562b…f85fbacked Canadiens56c3,412$1,906 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,905.7920%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x90ed…b5bcbacked Ducks42c3,333$1,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,933.1410850.9%55 W · 53 L+5.2wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+12%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb8cb…8f46backed Ducks42c3,000$1,270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,7304450%22 W · 22 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Ducks41c3,000$1,230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,769.971,55551.4%800 W · 755 L+12.2wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Ducks53c2,988$1,588 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,399.981,30152.6%684 W · 617 L+23.7wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Ducks42c2,705$1,139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,566.645751.6%236 W · 221 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf41a…ea2bbacked Canadiens57c2,555$1,456 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,456.3591945.6%419 W · 500 L-27.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-7.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd6f4…0566backed Ducks54c2,511$1,368 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,142.9295049.1%466 W · 484 L+12.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x33c9…6f9abacked Ducks42c2,500$1,050 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,4502245.5%10 W · 12 L-1.4wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-9.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9c4d…168cbacked Canadiens58c2,500$1,450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,449.951,08745.1%490 W · 597 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3d34…3406backed Ducks46c2,452$1,134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,317.945547.3%26 W · 29 L-4.6wins-0.08per pick56cpaid-16.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Canadiens31c2,445$758 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$758.52,75447.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L+11.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9870…b9d3backed Ducks42c2,381$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,380.9531550.8%160 W · 155 L-11.6wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-7.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6239…1d79backed Ducks42c2,359$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,359.377755.8%43 W · 34 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5422…76a4backed Canadiens44c2,247$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0001225%3 W · 9 L-2.6wins-0.22per pick47cpaid-15.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1d3a…7b63backed Canadiens58c2,222$1,289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,288.7686649.9%432 W · 434 L+1.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbddc…83b9backed Ducks49c2,206$1,073 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,133.481723.5%4 W · 13 L-4.9wins-0.29per pick52cpaid-54.1%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x617b…a499backed Ducks42c2,000$840 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,16022747.6%108 W · 119 L-7.0wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbad2…5296backed Ducks42c2,000$840 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,16089249.9%445 W · 447 L+10.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc371…d11dbacked Canadiens56c2,000$1,120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,12010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x256b…cd5dbacked Ducks69c1,931$1,330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$601.368056.3%45 W · 35 L+6.1wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+13.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Canadiens57c1,897$1,077 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,077.152,66451.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L+58.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd164…e490backed Canadiens59c1,894$1,110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,109.74854.2%26 W · 22 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+10.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3c7e…a65fbacked Canadiens8c1,864$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.1460337.5%226 W · 377 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf5a7…63e7backed Ducks42c1,667$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$966.6731848.1%153 W · 165 L-9.4wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Canadiens24c1,650$402 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401.82,11242.9%907 W · 1,205 L-10.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid-9.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x9b35…5da2backed Canadiens39c1,624$634 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$633.8422043.2%95 W · 125 L+8.8wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+2.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x86b0…a9e6backed Ducks62c1,613$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$612.91154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfc08…a137backed Ducks59c1,600$949 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$651.2930259.6%180 W · 122 L+31.0wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+16.7%equal weight61+0.09 edge/pick
0xe758…c5afbacked Canadiens54c1,556$838 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$837.612763%17 W · 10 L+1.7wins+0.06per pick57cpaid+12.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc94a…9401backed Ducks41c1,271$521 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$749.6814553.1%77 W · 68 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa16f…abbebacked Canadiens52c1,256$653 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$653.12333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.31per pick65cpaid-55%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x809c…eca3backed Canadiens40c1,251$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5003046.7%14 W · 16 L-2.3wins-0.08per pick54cpaid-11%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x10d4…d953backed Ducks42c1,210$508 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$701.844551.2%228 W · 217 L+16.4wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+9.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb8c8…d8a4backed Ducks42c1,190$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$690.4814940.9%61 W · 88 L-4.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x431c…12ecbacked Ducks43c1,163$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$662.792748.1%13 W · 14 L0.0wins0.00per pick48cpaid-3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0438…9d98backed Canadiens56c1,118$624 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$623.814548.9%22 W · 23 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid+0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3613…79e1backed Canadiens58c1,100$643 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64370249%344 W · 358 L+14.2wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6884…6ccfbacked Canadiens58c1,087$630 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$630.466262.9%39 W · 23 L+7.2wins+0.12per pick51cpaid+26.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x691a…d113backed Canadiens57c1,035$590 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$589.9526551.3%136 W · 129 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcff6…71adbacked Canadiens39c1,024$399 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$399.34666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.20per pick47cpaid+59.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xca3f…8078backed Ducks41c1,023$419 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$603.5862249.4%307 W · 315 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf1ad…6979backed Ducks43c1,021$435 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$585.5229448.6%143 W · 151 L-8.2wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3a65…9142backed Canadiens58c1,000$580 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5802166.7%14 W · 7 L+1.9wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+8.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xba9c…d2c1backed Canadiens56c1,000$560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5609853.1%52 W · 46 L-3.8wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe278…b608backed Canadiens57c1,000$570 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5709157.1%52 W · 39 L+7.4wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+19.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.