NHL · resolved market
Ducks vs. Canadiens: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xabc8802500f1f45d59e72299fa432203586f8bd7fb136a7625de70da4344dfa3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $57,469
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $57,469 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x93ab…9723backed Over | 33c | 39,604$13,189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,189.24 | 50 | 50%25 W · 25 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…b14fbacked Under | 67c | 39,263$26,182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,080.82 | 366 | 48.6%178 W · 188 L | -14.5wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Under | 64c | 3,395$2,173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,222.29 | 510 | 45.5%232 W · 278 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07dd…0876backed Under | 65c | 2,307$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$807.45 | 56 | 71.4%40 W · 16 L | +10.5wins | +0.19per pick | 53cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xc51a…a0d9backed Over | 35c | 1,970$690 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$689.5 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Under | 67c | 1,431$953 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$478.45 | 868 | 52.4%455 W · 413 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Under | 65c | 1,215$790 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$425.25 | 1,024 | 48.4%496 W · 528 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf05d…ac5ebacked Over | 35c | 1,000$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 87 | 52.9%46 W · 41 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Under | 47c | 730$341 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$389.48 | 588 | 41.8%246 W · 342 L | -20.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc991…abd4backed Over | 36c | 720.06$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.22 | 126 | 53.2%67 W · 59 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44ca…907cbacked Over | 36c | 390$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.4 | 183 | 44.8%82 W · 101 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ae…4df8backed Over | 34c | 378.99$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.86 | 367 | 48%176 W · 191 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ad…6979backed Over | 36c | 280.22$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.88 | 294 | 48.6%143 W · 151 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdae4…f1fcbacked Over | 36c | 277.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7c…3a5bbacked Over | 36c | 273.47$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.3 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2a7…7916backed Over | 36c | 250$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a51…b2b6backed Over | 36c | 245.42$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.35 | 285 | 49.1%140 W · 145 L | -8.4wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb38c…b2c9backed Over | 35c | 240$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 108 | 58.3%63 W · 45 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…579cbacked Under | 57c | 228.6$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.6 | 347 | 52.4%182 W · 165 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55db…8db6backed Over | 62c | 203.48$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.89 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea78…a74ebacked Over | 36c | 195$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.2 | 253 | 37.9%96 W · 157 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1683…6906backed Under | 65c | 190$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.13 | 79 | 55.7%44 W · 35 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 43c | 183.18$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.77 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a67…ef6bbacked Over | 35c | 158.41$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.44 | 148 | 53.4%79 W · 69 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a84…60fabacked Over | 36c | 138.89$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc308…c3b9backed Over | 36c | 138.47$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.85 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 34c | 137.74$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.83 | 1,092 | 50.4%550 W · 542 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 57c | 125.67$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.49 | 1,846 | 57.2%1,055 W · 791 L | +85.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf73e…f800backed Over | 36c | 120$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.2 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9510…16dfbacked Over | 35c | 116.42$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.75 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Over | 34c | 100.04$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.01 | 916 | 53.9%494 W · 422 L | +39.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xded3…e619backed Over | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a25…bb6bbacked Over | 36c | 97.5$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.1 | 128 | 44.5%57 W · 71 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d6…04a8backed Over | 36c | 97.22$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.9wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcf10…d318backed Over | 36c | 95.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.32 | 189 | 31.2%59 W · 130 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 52c | 89.1$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.34 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Over | 15c | 87.92$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.19 | 133 | 48.1%64 W · 69 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x409b…21e8backed Over | 36c | 83.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -2.8wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x41c0…9d61backed Over | 36c | 83.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Under | 43c | 80$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.85 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Over | 51c | 76.94$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.9 | 1,431 | 58.3%834 W · 597 L | +81.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Over | 45c | 68.7$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.85 | 234 | 50%117 W · 117 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe824…65b4backed Over | 33c | 66.49$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.94 | 355 | 53%188 W · 167 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa028…0031backed Over | 36c | 59.81$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.53 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0eca…c56abacked Under | 32c | 54.38$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.82 | 513 | 43.3%222 W · 291 L | -21.0wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c08…af98backed Under | 67c | 52.24$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.24 | 337 | 56.4%190 W · 147 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e4a…7045backed Over | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 59 | 59.3%35 W · 24 L | +4.8wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x02ea…220cbacked Over | 29c | 45.62$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.45 | 67 | 34.3%23 W · 44 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 48c | 40.69$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.29 | 1,028 | 53.2%547 W · 481 L | +21.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 50c | 39.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.93 | 657 | 21.9%144 W · 513 L | -105.6wins | -0.16per pick | 38cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 34c | 38.86$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 860 | 49.2%423 W · 437 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Under | 42c | 38$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.04 | 1,140 | 51.5%587 W · 553 L | +40.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…62cbbacked Over | 36c | 35.83$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -16%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbecc…f560backed Over | 34c | 35.16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.05 | 113 | 50.4%57 W · 56 L | -6.8wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8325…6ecbbacked Over | 36c | 33.01$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +27%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06fc…4fb6backed Over | 35c | 33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 128 | 50%64 W · 64 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56a7…9f37backed Under | 65c | 30.53$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.53 | 66 | 42.4%28 W · 38 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Over | 63c | 29.96$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.88 | 295 | 53.6%158 W · 137 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30ab…f338backed Over | 36c | 28.97$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 143 | 51.7%74 W · 69 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 60c | 27.6$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.92 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f6d…3070backed Over | 47c | 27$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 85 | 48.2%41 W · 44 L | +4.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over | 52c | 21.39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 740 | 54.5%403 W · 337 L | +22.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Over | 55c | 20.69$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 333 | 63.7%212 W · 121 L | +44.3wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf0bb…049fbacked Under | 63c | 16.97$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.26 | 149 | 63.8%95 W · 54 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Ducks vs. Canadiens: O/U 7.5this page
- Ducks vs. CanadiensDucks won
- Ducks vs. Canadiens: O/U 4.5Over won
- Ducks vs. Canadiens: O/U 5.5Over won
- Ducks vs. Canadiens: O/U 6.5Over won
- Spread: Canadiens (-1.5)Ducks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.