NHL · resolved market
Ducks vs. Canadiens: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd8a34bcdb4810f4b8c2da92c8c442e8a57024a30e3f3cca05b8530cb42019457
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,316
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,316 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd0e7…b14fbacked Over | 67c | 3,915$2,623 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,291.95 | 366 | 48.6%178 W · 188 L | -14.5wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x20d6…3856backed Under | 33c | 3,818$1,260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,259.91 | 268 | 49.6%133 W · 135 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2d2…21e7backed Over | 64c | 616.53$396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.87 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8709…7d3dbacked Over | 68c | 295.28$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.28 | 111 | 54.1%60 W · 51 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Under | 27c | 270.56$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.29 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 38c | 262$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.56 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Under | 6c | 227$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.62 | 133 | 48.1%64 W · 69 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3100…9bc9backed Under | 33c | 190.89$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.99 | 118 | 55.9%66 W · 52 L | +7.4wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 67c | 186.56$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.57 | 1,202 | 60.1%722 W · 480 L | +51.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe77b…f10abacked Under | 36c | 175.01$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.75 | 69 | 60.9%42 W · 27 L | +6.3wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 24c | 162.92$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.28 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 63c | 113.96$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.04 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0eb…af1ebacked Under | 36c | 102.61$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 172 | 27.3%47 W · 125 L | -17.4wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 38c | 99.81$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.11 | 1,846 | 57.2%1,055 W · 791 L | +85.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e70…14babacked Under | 32c | 97.47$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.19 | 100 | 49%49 W · 51 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5767…8cc1backed Under | 33c | 75.74$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 57 | 42.1%24 W · 33 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 28c | 74.42$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.84 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7793…33a6backed Over | 64c | 68.33$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.6 | 73 | 52.1%38 W · 35 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 33c | 65.78$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 1,092 | 50.4%550 W · 542 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under | 25c | 64.35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.05 | 740 | 54.5%403 W · 337 L | +22.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ec…681ebacked Under | 35c | 63.94$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.49 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +48.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 33c | 58$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.14 | 860 | 49.2%423 W · 437 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…61fbbacked Under | 36c | 53.26$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.42 | 384 | 47.4%182 W · 202 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Over | 62c | 52.7$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.14 | 1,431 | 58.3%834 W · 597 L | +81.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0eca…c56abacked Under | 37c | 48$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.76 | 513 | 43.3%222 W · 291 L | -21.0wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 38c | 37.05$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.11 | 1,028 | 53.2%547 W · 481 L | +21.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 64c | 37.01$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.32 | 1,190 | 50.7%603 W · 587 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe824…65b4backed Over | 66c | 31.49$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.71 | 355 | 53%188 W · 167 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb95…a5ccbacked Over | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 108 | 60.2%65 W · 43 L | +8.6wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x793c…22b6backed Under | 44c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Over | 65c | 23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.05 | 1,024 | 48.4%496 W · 528 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed52…2dbdbacked Over | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Over | 63c | 19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.1 | 295 | 53.6%158 W · 137 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Ducks vs. Canadiens: O/U 5.5this page
- Ducks vs. CanadiensDucks won
- Ducks vs. Canadiens: O/U 4.5Over won
- Ducks vs. Canadiens: O/U 6.5Over won
- Ducks vs. Canadiens: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Canadiens (-1.5)Ducks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.