NHL · resolved market
Spread: Canadiens (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2c20533f15a539fc3001ee7a6a98bc21a7aa55f575d1dbaad0cc089231cc5ce1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Ducksof Canadiens, Ducks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,539
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,539 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8cdc…b83fbacked Canadiens | 37c | 29,730$11,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,000 | 61 | 47.5%29 W · 32 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Ducks | 63c | 14,729$9,279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,449.57 | 515 | 50.7%261 W · 254 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ae…4df8backed Ducks | 63c | 9,573$6,031 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,541.91 | 367 | 48%176 W · 191 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Ducks | 63c | 3,333$2,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,233.21 | 919 | 45.6%419 W · 500 L | -27.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Ducks | 63c | 934$588 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345.58 | 849 | 53.8%457 W · 392 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x783b…faf7backed Ducks | 64c | 900$576 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9678…f922backed Ducks | 64c | 870$557 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c7…2ec6backed Ducks | 64c | 830$531 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed63…11d5backed Ducks | 64c | 820$525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 66cpaid | +52.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e7…3c1abacked Ducks | 63c | 776.96$489 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.48 | 751 | 55.8%419 W · 332 L | +12.1wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc5e…db51backed Ducks | 64c | 643$412 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.48 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeccd…d100backed Ducks | 62c | 569.56$353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.43 | 62 | 59.7%37 W · 25 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3613…79e1backed Canadiens | 38c | 400$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152 | 702 | 49%344 W · 358 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a1…0544backed Canadiens | 36c | 332.99$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.88 | 334 | 47.9%160 W · 174 L | -9.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba4…6de0backed Canadiens | 38c | 270.41$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.4 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -3.7wins | -0.14per pick | 43cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa975…9ae9backed Canadiens | 37c | 270.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 66 | 45.5%30 W · 36 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b0…f879backed Canadiens | 34c | 259.4$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.2 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Ducks | 64c | 241$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.61 | 868 | 52.4%455 W · 413 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…b14fbacked Ducks | 64c | 241$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.76 | 366 | 48.6%178 W · 188 L | -14.5wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Canadiens | 17c | 220.27$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.98 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64c3…0861backed Ducks | 64c | 147$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Ducks | 65c | 130$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.07 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Ducks | 65c | 123.08$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.08 | 811 | 57.2%464 W · 347 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e8a…093bbacked Canadiens | 37c | 108.11$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | +5.0wins | +0.12per pick | 40cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x011b…fcc3backed Ducks | 65c | 107.69$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.69 | 177 | 59.9%106 W · 71 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2942…a018backed Ducks | 65c | 103.96$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.96 | 215 | 60.9%131 W · 84 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Ducks | 59c | 80$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.8 | 272 | 50%136 W · 136 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Ducks | 63c | 79.03$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.24 | 916 | 53.9%494 W · 422 L | +39.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04eb…f50dbacked Ducks | 63c | 78.83$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.17 | 266 | 57.9%154 W · 112 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c04…2e2dbacked Ducks | 65c | 78.46$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.46 | 542 | 60.3%327 W · 215 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d27…676ebacked Ducks | 65c | 76$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 73 | 63%46 W · 27 L | +7.9wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +19%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ad…6979backed Ducks | 65c | 71.37$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.98 | 294 | 48.6%143 W · 151 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e0…5dd5backed Ducks | 65c | 61.66$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.66 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Ducks | 73c | 61.05$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.45 | 1,202 | 60.1%722 W · 480 L | +51.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x913b…0852backed Canadiens | 18c | 60.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 303 | 48.8%148 W · 155 L | -12.7wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed Ducks | 64c | 54.69$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.69 | 401 | 62.1%249 W · 152 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Canadiens | 35c | 54.2$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.97 | 381 | 47.2%180 W · 201 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc53…6bd3backed Canadiens | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 540 | 49.4%267 W · 273 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Ducks | 63c | 52.4$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.39 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2778…8547backed Canadiens | 37c | 51$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.87 | 61 | 44.3%27 W · 34 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Canadiens | 31c | 40.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.47 | 1,431 | 58.3%834 W · 597 L | +81.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Ducks | 64c | 32.81$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.81 | 690 | 61.6%425 W · 265 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Canadiens | 36c | 31.91$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.49 | 1,092 | 50.4%550 W · 542 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Ducks | 58c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 740 | 54.5%403 W · 337 L | +22.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa923…6704backed Canadiens | 38c | 26.32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec66…e58fbacked Ducks | 64c | 25.15$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.15 | 336 | 60.7%204 W · 132 L | +9.4wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07c9…9f5bbacked Ducks | 65c | 21.54$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.54 | 365 | 61.9%226 W · 139 L | +12.5wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd987…9212backed Ducks | 64c | 21.33$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.68 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16ea…9400backed Ducks | 63c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.66 | 477 | 53.9%257 W · 220 L | +18.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0bb…049fbacked Ducks | 67c | 16.29$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.45 | 149 | 63.8%95 W · 54 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce8…2f9ebacked Ducks | 71c | 16.17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.77 | 67 | 58.2%39 W · 28 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7634…f76fbacked Ducks | 64c | 15.65$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Canadiens (-1.5)this page
- Ducks vs. CanadiensDucks won
- Ducks vs. Canadiens: O/U 4.5Over won
- Ducks vs. Canadiens: O/U 5.5Over won
- Ducks vs. Canadiens: O/U 6.5Over won
- Ducks vs. Canadiens: O/U 7.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.