TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xf5e0…5dd5

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
50
Categories scored
5
Categories below 50
4

Best Category: Crypto Milestones, grading 51 out of 100 (+0.01 per pick).

Best Category Crypto Milestones at 51 out of 100; worst NHL at 45.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Weather Inactivelast resolved Feb 18, 2026, EST2236.4%8 W · 14 L-2.2wins-0.10per pick46cpaid-39.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
Weather — the 22 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the highest temperature in London be 6°C on February 18?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 18, 2026, EST-100%-$15
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 8°C or higher on February 18?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 18, 2026, EST-100%-$15
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 68°F or higher on February 18?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 18, 2026, EST-100%-$15
Will the highest temperature in London be 5°C on February 18?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 18, 2026, EST+61.3%+$9.19
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 76-77°F on February 17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 18, 2026, EST-100%-$15
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 68-69°F on February 17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 18, 2026, EST-100%-$15
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 70-71°F on February 17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 18, 2026, EST+47.1%+$7.06
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 5°C on February 18?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 18, 2026, EST+66.7%+$10
Will the highest temperature in London be 7°C on February 17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 17, 2026, EST-100%-$15
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 44-45°F on February 17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 17, 2026, EST+85.2%+$12.78
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 13°C on February 17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 17, 2026, EST-100%-$15
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 44-45°F on February 17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 17, 2026, EST+61.3%+$9.19
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 54°F or higher on February 17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 17, 2026, EST-100%-$15
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on February 17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 17, 2026, EST+72.4%+$10.86
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 4°C on February 17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 17, 2026, EST-100%-$15
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 42-43°F on February 16?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 17, 2026, EST-100%-$15
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 74°F or higher on February 16?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 17, 2026, EST+61.3%+$9.19
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C on February 17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 17, 2026, EST+66.7%+$10
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 64°F or higher on February 16?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2026, EST-100%-$14.95
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 5°C on February 16?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2026, EST-100%-$15
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on February 16?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2026, EST-100%-$15
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 46-47°F on February 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2026, EST-100%-$15
All 22 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved Mar 16, 2026, EDT1850%9 W · 9 L-2.0wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-18.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
NHL — the 18 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spread: Oilers (-1.5)backed Predators · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Maple Leafs vs. Wildbacked Wild · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$37.83
Spread: Canadiens (-1.5)backed Ducks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+54.2%+$21.66
Blues vs. Jets: O/U 5.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Spread: Golden Knights (-1.5)backed Blackhawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Spread: Wild (-1.5)backed Rangers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT+75.4%+$15.09
Spread: Oilers (-1.5)backed Blues · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT+53.9%+$21.55
Spread: Avalanche (-1.5)backed Oilers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$13.33
Spread: Lightning (-1.5)backed Blue Jackets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT+85.5%+$17.11
Red Wings vs. Panthers: O/U 5.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT+87.3%+$17.46
Flames vs. Rangers: O/U 5.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Spread: Oilers (-1.5)backed Golden Knights · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Red Wings vs. Devils: O/U 5.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Blackhawks vs. Starsbacked Stars · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT+37.1%+$7.42
Spread: Penguins (-1.5)backed Bruins · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT+42.9%+$8.57
Spread: Senators (-1.5)backed Kraken · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Spread: Senators (-1.5)backed Flames · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Spread: Lightning (-1.5)backed Jets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST+65.3%+$13.06
All 18 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Mar 20, 2026, EDT742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.12per pick55cpaid-22.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
NBA — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Mar 14, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick68cpaid-28.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Dayton Flyers vs. Saint Louis Billikensbacked Saint Louis Billikens · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.85
Iowa Hawkeyes vs. Nebraska Cornhuskersbacked Nebraska Cornhuskers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT+43%+$8.53
All 2 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Mar 1, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+47.1%+$9.28
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.