Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 70-71°F on February 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb66400d536f9e819aae5d6e24dc91d93f59317f8784c5fec61696cfeceae560f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,899
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,771
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,899 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9f6d…b4c7backed Yes | 54c | 1,080$588 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$587.9 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 25c | 300.03$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.36 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 70c | 246.24$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.75 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa717…faeabacked No | 51c | 210.2$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.93 | 311 | 70.7%220 W · 91 L | +42.3wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 9c | 200$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 27c | 174.8$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.45 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 26c | 171.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.84 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 28c | 147.8$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.06 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3847…df89backed No | 69c | 144.69$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.69 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.20per pick | 65cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x095b…6f34backed Yes | 30c | 138.01$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.85 | 94 | 47.9%45 W · 49 L | +10.7wins | +0.11per pick | 36cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3edf…facdbacked Yes | 41c | 120.26$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.54 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -4.6wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 24c | 118.18$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.59 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 68c | 115.44$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.94 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe228…1e29backed Yes | 32c | 115.44$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.94 | 75 | 30.7%23 W · 52 L | -5.4wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x87c7…d1b6backed Yes | 40c | 106.06$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.27 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed No | 76c | 104.3$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.68 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07f6…2ed5backed Yes | 42c | 96.3$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72d7…a3ddbacked Yes | 34c | 95.19$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.7 | 216 | 41.7%90 W · 126 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1584…71b6backed No | 59c | 94.68$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.82 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | +4.8wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 16c | 86.55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.24 | 633 | 23.9%151 W · 482 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc72b…c108backed Yes | 65c | 76.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.5wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a42…8da8backed No | 63c | 75.52$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.88 | 388 | 40.7%158 W · 230 L | -14.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf05b…d0b7backed Yes | 25c | 69$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.17 | 296 | 42.9%127 W · 169 L | +19.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c2…b14dbacked Yes | 30c | 57.94$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 70 | 38.6%27 W · 43 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca85…fe6cbacked Yes | 28c | 57.29$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.21 | 222 | 36.5%81 W · 141 L | +10.1wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 20c | 54.9$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.09 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa7e2…b1a9backed No | 60c | 52.2$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.92 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | -3.7wins | -0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc97c…b49ebacked Yes | 43c | 52$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.36 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -3.4wins | -0.21per pick | 52cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe983…a371backed No | 59c | 50.59$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.59 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5093…272cbacked Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 727 | 26.4%192 W · 535 L | +63.8wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x70db…afb2backed Yes | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 77 | 37.7%29 W · 48 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a19…1e2ebacked No | 44c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 417 | 67.9%283 W · 134 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 21c | 48.85$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.28 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 31c | 46.43$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 29c | 44$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 29c | 43.24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7cd…043fbacked No | 72c | 42.74$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.77 | 56 | 66.1%37 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x359a…8844backed Yes | 35c | 42.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.98 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab24…31c4backed No | 70c | 41.33$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 71c | 40.44$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.69 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 42c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x540f…4bf4backed No | 63c | 39.54$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.51 | 64 | 67.2%43 W · 21 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb5d…3961backed Yes | 29c | 36.06$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 91 | 42.9%39 W · 52 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe23b…8d60backed No | 73c | 35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.55 | 44 | 56.8%25 W · 19 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x162e…986bbacked No | 66c | 33.28$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.32 | 70 | 55.7%39 W · 31 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7cde…1af7backed No | 75c | 32.55$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.07 | 201 | 46.3%93 W · 108 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x916e…2be2backed No | 66c | 30.53$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.38 | 45 | 28.9%13 W · 32 L | +4.0wins | +0.09per pick | 20cpaid | +1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb905…1640backed No | 68c | 30.43$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.59 | 87 | 47.1%41 W · 46 L | -8.7wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6f43…a080backed Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 118 | 55.1%65 W · 53 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c8…d7c5backed No | 67c | 29.86$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 241 | 49.8%120 W · 121 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5504…a960backed No | 67c | 28.27$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.46 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 63c | 28$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc0…b5f2backed No | 64c | 27.31$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.83 | 133 | 60.9%81 W · 52 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f7f…171bbacked No | 76c | 26.31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.31 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | -4.0wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbe37…2848backed Yes | 42c | 25.1$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa817…95d7backed Yes | 44c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 169 | 34.9%59 W · 110 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0c8…dd57backed Yes | 61c | 24.16$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 78 | 35.9%28 W · 50 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd21c…8628backed No | 62c | 24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.22 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 68cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0502…62bbbacked No | 61c | 23.38$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.02 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e0…5dd5backed No | 68c | 22.06$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.06 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6cfa…168abacked No | 66c | 20.14$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.85 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2155…3428backed Yes | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 188 | 45.2%85 W · 103 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6a…c64ebacked No | 68c | 16.97$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.43 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -6.6wins | -0.23per pick | 61cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x7149…e7efbacked No | 71c | 14.14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.06 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 70-71°F on February 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 72°F or higher on February 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 60-61°F on February 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 62-63°F on February 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 64-65°F on February 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 66-67°F on February 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 68-69°F on February 17?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.