Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 68-69°F on February 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4465d6e6a626d8f8578f5db58d443b38c58968dff525724fcd42200e6ee7e535
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,803
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,697
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,803 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x754b…a66ebacked No | 2c | 778.79$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.69 | 74 | 1.4%1 W · 73 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 50c | 494.03$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.76 | 633 | 23.9%151 W · 482 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 30c | 355.51$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.26 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x926b…8424backed No | 4c | 293.39$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa717…faeabacked Yes | 30c | 283.02$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.2 | 311 | 70.7%220 W · 91 L | +42.3wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xe17b…6f98backed Yes | 78c | 246.36$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.64 | 101 | 50.5%51 W · 50 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 27c | 241.61$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.58 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ffa…ac3cbacked No | 6c | 236.9$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.63 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 51c | 176.06$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.36 | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked No | 61c | 145.43$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.2 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe228…1e29backed No | 54c | 144.87$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.23 | 75 | 30.7%23 W · 52 L | -5.4wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x72d7…a3ddbacked Yes | 74c | 140.12$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.03 | 216 | 41.7%90 W · 126 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca85…fe6cbacked Yes | 27c | 129.99$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.53 | 222 | 36.5%81 W · 141 L | +10.1wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 23c | 126.67$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.93 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 70c | 116.96$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.58 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x095b…6f34backed Yes | 26c | 105.52$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.5 | 94 | 47.9%45 W · 49 L | +10.7wins | +0.11per pick | 36cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2138…8a11backed Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 52 | 36.5%19 W · 33 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 35c | 98.79$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.57 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 73c | 86.97$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.72 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 74c | 78.96$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.66 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b3d…2c18backed No | 38c | 78.74$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.16 | 70 | 65.7%46 W · 24 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7943…27a1backed Yes | 38c | 74.96$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.19 | 320 | 44.7%143 W · 177 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf05b…d0b7backed Yes | 34c | 69$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.23 | 296 | 42.9%127 W · 169 L | +19.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 77c | 66.82$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.36 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc956…9168backed Yes | 30c | 66.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.48 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 26c | 65$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.23 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f5…029bbacked Yes | 27c | 62.39$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.74 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 25cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 72c | 55.98$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.31 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cbf…7df7backed Yes | 45c | 55.18$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.18 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 26c | 54.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.69 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd6…cca4backed Yes | 29c | 54.4$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.4 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 64c | 53.73$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.32 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8781…88c0backed Yes | 30c | 53.01$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.19 | 325 | 48.6%158 W · 167 L | +11.8wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c05…e80abacked Yes | 20c | 53$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.4 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 7cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a19…1e2ebacked No | 70c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 417 | 67.9%283 W · 134 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd01…d8cdbacked Yes | 43c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.74 | 332 | 43.1%143 W · 189 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 80c | 50$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 27c | 49.92$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.44 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4de1…18a2backed Yes | 40c | 49.42$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.42 | 435 | 15.2%66 W · 369 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c2…b14dbacked Yes | 30c | 48.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.73 | 70 | 38.6%27 W · 43 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed Yes | 27c | 46.91$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.12 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 26c | 46.16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.97 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5d6…8a40backed No | 80c | 45.65$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.52 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -4.9wins | -0.22per pick | 68cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa6c0…dd68backed Yes | 46c | 45.64$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.77 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -2.6wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 32c | 44.85$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.59 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 27c | 44$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.04 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa151…ce04backed Yes | 27c | 43.93$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 16cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 25c | 43.76$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.94 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe33b…6de8backed Yes | 30c | 41.34$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.87 | 55 | 30.9%17 W · 38 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd721…57a7backed Yes | 40c | 41.33$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.9 | 451 | 27.1%122 W · 329 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cde…1af7backed No | 71c | 39.24$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.89 | 201 | 46.3%93 W · 108 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb5d…3961backed Yes | 31c | 38.5$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 91 | 42.9%39 W · 52 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 44c | 38.19$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.22 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca9b…217fbacked No | 62c | 36$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.42 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 58c | 31.02$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.09 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2031…0ac2backed No | 65c | 31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.15 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…4622backed No | 51c | 29.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.29 | 562 | 65.5%368 W · 194 L | +35.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84a4…21c4backed No | 71c | 29.58$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -3.0wins | -0.20per pick | 66cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x966a…e931backed Yes | 47c | 29.54$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +111%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfda8…42bebacked Yes | 45c | 26.84$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +123.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c8…d7c5backed No | 77c | 24.36$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.87 | 241 | 49.8%120 W · 121 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e0…5dd5backed No | 68c | 22.06$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe983…a371backed No | 70c | 21.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeccd…d100backed No | 72c | 20.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.59 | 131 | 22.1%29 W · 102 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e42…9ca9backed No | 76c | 19.84$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.28per pick | 42cpaid | -82.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc972…5e84backed No | 77c | 19.68$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3738…ed32backed No | 73c | 19.01$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.88 | 201 | 44.3%89 W · 112 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 67c | 15.19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 68-69°F on February 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 72°F or higher on February 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 60-61°F on February 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 62-63°F on February 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 64-65°F on February 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 66-67°F on February 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 70-71°F on February 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.