Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 72°F or higher on February 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb5588a8449eb856567b6b5693ce48476231ea0580db482ec8511f5f3cf31a7cf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,413
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,760
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,413 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 23c | 840.85$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.97 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…87a9backed Yes | 17c | 454.8$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.68 | 464 | 23.5%109 W · 355 L | +20.7wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 10c | 453.09$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.55 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3847…df89backed No | 79c | 440.98$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.98 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.20per pick | 65cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 14c | 396.01$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.77 | 633 | 23.9%151 W · 482 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 11c | 277.52$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdde…1d27backed Yes | 9c | 205.19$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 13c | 200$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc11e…75c8backed Yes | 9c | 198.74$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.85 | 86 | 23.3%20 W · 66 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 10c | 182.75$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.71 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 9c | 178.74$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.95 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 9c | 172.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.77 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa717…faeabacked No | 77c | 172.09$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.58 | 311 | 70.7%220 W · 91 L | +42.3wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 12c | 165.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.66 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 79c | 163.26$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.09 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0eec…e587backed Yes | 8c | 161.91$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.62 | 88 | 35.2%31 W · 57 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fc2…02a9backed Yes | 9c | 153.85$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x095b…6f34backed Yes | 12c | 150.3$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 94 | 47.9%45 W · 49 L | +10.7wins | +0.11per pick | 36cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 79c | 146.12$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.14 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c01…9d5ebacked No | 77c | 129.7$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.7 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed Yes | 9c | 126.42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1236…78bebacked No | 74c | 125.07$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.55 | 73 | 30.1%22 W · 51 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf8…11b2backed Yes | 20c | 102.47$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.63 | 33 | 21.2%7 W · 26 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc2c1…28e3backed Yes | 23c | 86.69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.85 | 21 | 0%0 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79a4…5ab3backed Yes | 24c | 83.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x754b…a66ebacked Yes | 18c | 82$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 74 | 1.4%1 W · 73 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7943…27a1backed Yes | 13c | 80$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 320 | 44.7%143 W · 177 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 24c | 66.11$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.54 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05c8…092abacked Yes | 16c | 64.15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 361 | 23%83 W · 278 L | +15.0wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5093…272cbacked Yes | 22c | 50.28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.84 | 727 | 26.4%192 W · 535 L | +63.8wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 22c | 48.9$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cde…86c4backed No | 76c | 39.24$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -4.0wins | -0.24per pick | 59cpaid | -51%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x517e…4fb2backed No | 80c | 21.66$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.39 | 90 | 76.7%69 W · 21 L | +4.7wins | +0.05per pick | 71cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 78c | 17.9$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.94 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 72°F or higher on February 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 60-61°F on February 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 62-63°F on February 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 64-65°F on February 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 66-67°F on February 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 68-69°F on February 17?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 70-71°F on February 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.