TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 66-67°F on February 17?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$10,636
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$11,163

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,636 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfd43…51b1backed Yes12c487.65$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.641127.3%3 W · 8 L+1.4wins+0.12per pick15cpaid-3.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc956…9168backed Yes25c443.58$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.653327.3%9 W · 24 L-2.6wins-0.08per pick35cpaid-16.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes17c441.12$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.5817,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x66a1…3de8backed Yes26c264.97$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.0768521.5%147 W · 538 L+12.8wins+0.02per pick20cpaid+14.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbdb8…f592backed Yes26c254.1$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.941827.8%5 W · 13 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-27.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf641…2b4abacked Yes14c242$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.9814915.4%23 W · 126 L+4.9wins+0.03per pick12cpaid+13.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7d72…8e62backed Yes9c200$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171,8178.1%148 W · 1,669 L-1.2wins0.00per pick8cpaid-4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x918b…da5dbacked Yes22c196.46$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.663122.6%7 W · 24 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-22.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1de8…9dc7backed Yes18c191.97$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.55147.1%1 W · 13 L-1.6wins-0.11per pick18cpaid-81.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8f13…daaebacked Yes14c173.72$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.2963323.9%151 W · 482 L-20.0wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-45%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7cde…1af7backed Yes21c170.54$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.3720146.3%93 W · 108 L-5.1wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-24.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2138…8a11backed Yes20c143.63$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.985236.5%19 W · 33 L0.0wins0.00per pick37cpaid-15.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No75c142.27$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.183,17562.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L+12.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b24…1659backed Yes24c127.06$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3020%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1dd6…cca4backed Yes33c126.98$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$421020%2 W · 8 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick30cpaid-37.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8781…88c0backed Yes19c115.95$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2232548.6%158 W · 167 L+11.8wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-2.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1c05…e80abacked Yes19c114$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.661910.5%2 W · 17 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick7cpaid-36.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7112…6d11backed No79c103$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.7134970.2%245 W · 104 L+8.0wins+0.02per pick68cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2ace…e67fbacked Yes16c102.64$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161656.3%9 W · 7 L+2.6wins+0.16per pick40cpaid+72.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No78c101.7$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.888,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8495…9087backed Yes22c100.06$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.421717.6%3 W · 14 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick24cpaid-69.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xff29…f008backed Yes12c100$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.1811950.4%60 W · 59 L+13.9wins+0.12per pick39cpaid+18.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes21c100$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.224,49619.6%882 W · 3,614 L+49.5wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x94e7…c00cbacked Yes24c99.5$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241414.3%2 W · 12 L-2.5wins-0.18per pick32cpaid-61.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf7a4…f148backed Yes15c84.98$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.751,42934.5%493 W · 936 L-6.8wins0.00per pick35cpaid-4.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x1b06…978dbacked Yes26c84.08$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.953023.3%7 W · 23 L-4.5wins-0.15per pick38cpaid-42.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xaa7a…4d23backed No78c72.02$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.9198738.1%376 W · 611 L+80.8wins+0.08per pick30cpaid+32.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x095b…6f34backed No80c70.21$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.049447.9%45 W · 49 L+10.7wins+0.11per pick36cpaid+23.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xf2bb…ae21backed No71c70$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2035362.9%222 W · 131 L+16.9wins+0.05per pick58cpaid+8.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7bd1…184cbacked Yes29c69.93$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick27cpaid-35.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x162e…986bbacked Yes20c69.04$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.817055.7%39 W · 31 L-2.9wins-0.04per pick60cpaid-16.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6f43…a080backed No76c65.79$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.7911855.1%65 W · 53 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-5.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd7f5…029bbacked Yes21c65.38$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.481136.4%4 W · 7 L+1.3wins+0.12per pick25cpaid+25.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa151…ce04backed Yes17c60.53$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.18per pick16cpaid+24.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd0c8…dd57backed Yes18c60$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.87835.9%28 W · 50 L-5.0wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-31.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb9d2…fb68backed Yes19c60$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.32416.7%4 W · 20 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick16cpaid+22.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf2e5…86f4backed No72c59.99$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.84362.8%27 W · 16 L+4.5wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+18.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x74a3…ea60backed Yes22c50.17$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.88911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.14per pick25cpaid-74.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8454…3587backed No78c40$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.927376.6%209 W · 64 L+0.5wins0.00per pick76cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4950…d8edbacked No74c30$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.732560%15 W · 10 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-8.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2205…8089backed No77c27.96$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.4329056.2%163 W · 127 L-5.6wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-6.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No62c23.03$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.644,96168.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L+65.6wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd21c…8628backed No77c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.64060%24 W · 16 L-3.1wins-0.08per pick68cpaid-13.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc8c1…8c6bbacked No77c19.27$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.4310531.4%33 W · 72 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-21.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf7fe…1e42backed No76c14$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.3634457%196 W · 148 L+4.4wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.