Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 66-67°F on February 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbf2c3cd3a3d3a14ffa15677da8d7841b614116587c8fec9dcc136f9c5a981011
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,636
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,163
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,636 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfd43…51b1backed Yes | 12c | 487.65$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.64 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 15cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc956…9168backed Yes | 25c | 443.58$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.65 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 17c | 441.12$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.58 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed Yes | 26c | 264.97$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.07 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdb8…f592backed Yes | 26c | 254.1$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.94 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf641…2b4abacked Yes | 14c | 242$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.98 | 149 | 15.4%23 W · 126 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 9c | 200$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x918b…da5dbacked Yes | 22c | 196.46$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.66 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1de8…9dc7backed Yes | 18c | 191.97$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.55 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 18cpaid | -81.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 14c | 173.72$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.29 | 633 | 23.9%151 W · 482 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7cde…1af7backed Yes | 21c | 170.54$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.37 | 201 | 46.3%93 W · 108 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2138…8a11backed Yes | 20c | 143.63$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.98 | 52 | 36.5%19 W · 33 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 75c | 142.27$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.18 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b24…1659backed Yes | 24c | 127.06$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd6…cca4backed Yes | 33c | 126.98$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8781…88c0backed Yes | 19c | 115.95$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 325 | 48.6%158 W · 167 L | +11.8wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c05…e80abacked Yes | 19c | 114$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.66 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 7cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7112…6d11backed No | 79c | 103$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.71 | 349 | 70.2%245 W · 104 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ace…e67fbacked Yes | 16c | 102.64$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +2.6wins | +0.16per pick | 40cpaid | +72.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 78c | 101.7$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.88 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8495…9087backed Yes | 22c | 100.06$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.42 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff29…f008backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 119 | 50.4%60 W · 59 L | +13.9wins | +0.12per pick | 39cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.22 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94e7…c00cbacked Yes | 24c | 99.5$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 15c | 84.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b06…978dbacked Yes | 26c | 84.08$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.95 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | -4.5wins | -0.15per pick | 38cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed No | 78c | 72.02$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.91 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x095b…6f34backed No | 80c | 70.21$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.04 | 94 | 47.9%45 W · 49 L | +10.7wins | +0.11per pick | 36cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf2bb…ae21backed No | 71c | 70$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 353 | 62.9%222 W · 131 L | +16.9wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7bd1…184cbacked Yes | 29c | 69.93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x162e…986bbacked Yes | 20c | 69.04$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.81 | 70 | 55.7%39 W · 31 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f43…a080backed No | 76c | 65.79$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.79 | 118 | 55.1%65 W · 53 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f5…029bbacked Yes | 21c | 65.38$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.48 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 25cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa151…ce04backed Yes | 17c | 60.53$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 16cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0c8…dd57backed Yes | 18c | 60$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 78 | 35.9%28 W · 50 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb9d2…fb68backed Yes | 19c | 60$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2e5…86f4backed No | 72c | 59.99$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 43 | 62.8%27 W · 16 L | +4.5wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x74a3…ea60backed Yes | 22c | 50.17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.14per pick | 25cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8454…3587backed No | 78c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.9 | 273 | 76.6%209 W · 64 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 76cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4950…d8edbacked No | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.73 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2205…8089backed No | 77c | 27.96$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.43 | 290 | 56.2%163 W · 127 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 62c | 23.03$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.64 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd21c…8628backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 68cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8c1…8c6bbacked No | 77c | 19.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.43 | 105 | 31.4%33 W · 72 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 76c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.36 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 66-67°F on February 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 72°F or higher on February 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 60-61°F on February 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 62-63°F on February 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 64-65°F on February 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 68-69°F on February 17?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 70-71°F on February 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.