NHL · resolved market
Spread: Avalanche (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x31a28d44de965d8230d10c632b49928f1ce89119e02f57fae4a85f783be4e0a4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Oilersof Avalanche, Oilers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,857
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,857 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Avalanche | 42c | 4,128$1,727 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,727.2 | 868 | 52.4%455 W · 413 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Oilers | 59c | 1,737$1,025 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$712.1 | 895 | 47%421 W · 474 L | -18.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Oilers | 58c | 1,318$764 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$554.51 | 594 | 50.8%302 W · 292 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Oilers | 57c | 1,273$730 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$542.43 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Avalanche | 40c | 805.82$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.33 | 919 | 45.6%419 W · 500 L | -27.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…b14fbacked Avalanche | 42c | 665$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.3 | 366 | 48.6%178 W · 188 L | -14.5wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Avalanche | 43c | 330.68$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.01 | 210 | 36.2%76 W · 134 L | -14.6wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Oilers | 58c | 275.78$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.83 | 1,092 | 50.4%550 W · 542 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x966d…eaa5backed Oilers | 60c | 250$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 122 | 54.1%66 W · 56 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa877…2e20backed Oilers | 60c | 183$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.32 | 363 | 49%178 W · 185 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Oilers | 60c | 133.54$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.54 | 811 | 57.2%464 W · 347 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5b…a569backed Oilers | 60c | 133.54$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.54 | 226 | 55.8%126 W · 100 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Oilers | 58c | 123.97$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.07 | 381 | 47.2%180 W · 201 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf342…1e14backed Avalanche | 41c | 122.25$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -3.5wins | -0.39per pick | 50cpaid | -80.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Avalanche | 41c | 121.93$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 786 | 51.8%407 W · 379 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x011b…fcc3backed Oilers | 60c | 116.67$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.67 | 177 | 59.9%106 W · 71 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2942…a018backed Oilers | 60c | 113.33$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.33 | 215 | 60.9%131 W · 84 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Oilers | 57c | 108.4$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.61 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Avalanche | 21c | 103.69$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 295 | 53.6%158 W · 137 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c04…2e2dbacked Oilers | 60c | 85$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 542 | 60.3%327 W · 215 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04eb…f50dbacked Oilers | 58c | 80.14$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.74 | 266 | 57.9%154 W · 112 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1783…885cbacked Avalanche | 41c | 73.17$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Avalanche | 41c | 63$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.83 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed Oilers | 59c | 59.05$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.05 | 401 | 62.1%249 W · 152 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd32d…3c32backed Avalanche | 35c | 43.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 116 | 55.2%64 W · 52 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Oilers | 58c | 42.51$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.86 | 1,530 | 51.7%791 W · 739 L | +22.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Oilers | 55c | 39.7$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.87 | 1,202 | 60.1%722 W · 480 L | +51.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4112…5d9dbacked Oilers | 58c | 38.12$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.98 | 156 | 51.3%80 W · 76 L | +5.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f5…8335backed Oilers | 60c | 36.44$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5337…222bbacked Avalanche | 41c | 36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Oilers | 57c | 35.16$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.95 | 860 | 49.2%423 W · 437 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Oilers | 60c | 35$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 690 | 61.6%425 W · 265 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce39…04d6backed Avalanche | 42c | 33.4$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.03 | 170 | 42.4%72 W · 98 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f6e…6a74backed Oilers | 60c | 33.39$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.39 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc53…6bd3backed Oilers | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 540 | 49.4%267 W · 273 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e0…5dd5backed Oilers | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b84…6accbacked Oilers | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf55b…8df4backed Oilers | 58c | 20.96$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07c9…9f5bbacked Oilers | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 365 | 61.9%226 W · 139 L | +12.5wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Oilers | 73c | 15.65$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.23 | 1,846 | 57.2%1,055 W · 791 L | +85.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Avalanche (-1.5)this page
- Oilers vs. AvalancheOilers won
- Oilers vs. Avalanche: O/U 4.5Over won
- Oilers vs. Avalanche: O/U 5.5Over won
- Oilers vs. Avalanche: O/U 6.5Over won
- Oilers vs. Avalanche: O/U 7.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.