Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 44-45°F on February 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe5a5cbf76ca2d6a448b708127df82961d805e485e70f7fdeea23e9f94d30e9ec
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $52,111
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $56,230
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $52,111 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 147 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9f6d…b4c7backed Yes | 6c | 29,066$1,663 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,663.14 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa37d…b2b4backed No | 59c | 677.91$398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.66 | 321 | 57.3%184 W · 137 L | +17.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9d…06b0backed No | 16c | 525.95$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$443.45 | 187 | 27.3%51 W · 136 L | +9.1wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 35c | 505.36$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$329.45 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 70c | 457.6$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.65 | 495 | 43.6%216 W · 279 L | +31.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x39c9…b108backed No | 73c | 398.96$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.16 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +8.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe170…3c0bbacked No | 75c | 323.24$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.9 | 79 | 50.6%40 W · 39 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa717…faeabacked Yes | 43c | 314.89$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.91 | 311 | 70.7%220 W · 91 L | +42.3wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 35c | 303.36$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.55 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2138…8a11backed Yes | 20c | 299.98$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 52 | 36.5%19 W · 33 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c02…ba96backed Yes | 65c | 288.04$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.99 | 83 | 41%34 W · 49 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 36c | 274.61$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.8 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 33c | 270.05$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.45 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 24c | 267.52$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.19 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x584e…090fbacked Yes | 52c | 242.53$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.81 | 478 | 34.3%164 W · 314 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc516…3f8bbacked No | 78c | 237.72$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.74 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 30c | 229.72$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.33 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked Yes | 27c | 224.14$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.98 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef03…1fbfbacked No | 72c | 217.53$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.66 | 109 | 56%61 W · 48 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc956…9168backed Yes | 38c | 207.34$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.73 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc282…cd6abacked Yes | 32c | 201.48$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ec4…9c76backed No | 78c | 200.09$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.82 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 9c | 200$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…1b63backed Yes | 36c | 199.99$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 432 | 38%164 W · 268 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 33c | 195$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.25 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 26c | 189.14$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.53 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 63c | 178.37$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.57 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 62c | 166.6$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.3 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d35…3af0backed No | 72c | 166.26$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.38 | 38 | 71.1%27 W · 11 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 63cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 30c | 164.24$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.41 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 45c | 163.01$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.76 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 32c | 156.61$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.77 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x095b…6f34backed Yes | 37c | 155.29$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.43 | 94 | 47.9%45 W · 49 L | +10.7wins | +0.11per pick | 36cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x420c…1f36backed Yes | 43c | 153.85$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 298 | 35.2%105 W · 193 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32cb…04c6backed Yes | 47c | 153.69$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e53…14e7backed Yes | 44c | 153.65$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.07 | 150 | 27.3%41 W · 109 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca85…fe6cbacked Yes | 33c | 149$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.86 | 222 | 36.5%81 W · 141 L | +10.1wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0eec…e587backed Yes | 33c | 143.48$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.97 | 88 | 35.2%31 W · 57 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed No | 67c | 141.16$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.91 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf05b…d0b7backed Yes | 36c | 139.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.34 | 296 | 42.9%127 W · 169 L | +19.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 66c | 137.59$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.77 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa054…acdabacked Yes | 28c | 135.8$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.53 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f46…1bbabacked No | 36c | 131.2$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.36 | 121 | 25.6%31 W · 90 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Yes | 29c | 128.8$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.13 | 539 | 25.6%138 W · 401 L | -18.4wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc72b…c108backed Yes | 80c | 125$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.5wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes | 40c | 124.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 335 | 35.2%118 W · 217 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 33c | 114.61$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.39 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97eb…9fbebacked No | 51c | 107.24$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.84 | 299 | 22.7%68 W · 231 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70db…afb2backed Yes | 39c | 107.01$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.71 | 77 | 37.7%29 W · 48 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 37c | 104.44$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.01 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cde…1af7backed No | 64c | 101.81$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.84 | 201 | 46.3%93 W · 108 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0645…c08ebacked Yes | 76c | 100$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 63 | 38.1%24 W · 39 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef3…f1c5backed Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.43 | 324 | 44.4%144 W · 180 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd255…3c50backed Yes | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 74 | 31.1%23 W · 51 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6405…7d19backed No | 31c | 100$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.8 | 84 | 38.1%32 W · 52 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x87c7…d1b6backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9469…6d18backed No | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 959 | 42.4%407 W · 552 L | +84.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdb9a…fd63backed Yes | 53c | 94.9$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.7wins | -0.18per pick | 44cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed Yes | 29c | 94.32$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 346 | 17.9%62 W · 284 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x47d7…a0d9backed Yes | 46c | 93.11$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.44 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8d…066dbacked Yes | 36c | 90.43$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb5d…3961backed Yes | 34c | 83.63$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.81 | 91 | 42.9%39 W · 52 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa11e…1b2dbacked No | 60c | 80$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 65 | 49.2%32 W · 33 L | -5.1wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 34c | 75.84$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.74 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5bea…9f47backed Yes | 38c | 73.68$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24fe…3419backed Yes | 28c | 70$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 212 | 35.8%76 W · 136 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x76a2…6651backed No | 73c | 69.59$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.69 | 146 | 37.7%55 W · 91 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cc0…d70fbacked Yes | 41c | 69.55$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7d5…f5b7backed Yes | 37c | 67.94$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c2…b14dbacked Yes | 36c | 63.62$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 70 | 38.6%27 W · 43 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x860d…fa0cbacked Yes | 33c | 63$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.08 | 242 | 16.9%41 W · 201 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a42…8da8backed No | 62c | 61.46$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.57 | 388 | 40.7%158 W · 230 L | -14.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe630…76f9backed No | 68c | 58.82$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.82 | 26 | 73.1%19 W · 7 L | +4.5wins | +0.17per pick | 56cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed Yes | 69c | 57.71$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.99 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef96…58a7backed Yes | 35c | 57.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe17b…6f98backed Yes | 44c | 56.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.1 | 101 | 50.5%51 W · 50 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00d2…fe64backed No | 67c | 55$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.2 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 27c | 54.16$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.37 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7149…e7efbacked Yes | 34c | 54$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.36 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe33b…6de8backed No | 67c | 52.46$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.16 | 55 | 30.9%17 W · 38 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27c1…2509backed No | 66c | 52$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.44 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3fc6…7affbacked Yes | 36c | 51.92$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.69 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 56c | 50.81$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.11 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e0…b5ccbacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 39cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8a…ad94backed Yes | 35c | 49.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 331 | 39.6%131 W · 200 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 62c | 49.97$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.99 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 41c | 48.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.12 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x635d…880abacked Yes | 36c | 48.47$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.59 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4f…728abacked No | 69c | 47.9$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.93 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.27per pick | 53cpaid | +141.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc92b…d66ebacked Yes | 32c | 46.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.02 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 27cpaid | -66.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 26c | 46$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5d6…8a40backed No | 62c | 45.81$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.41 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -4.9wins | -0.22per pick | 68cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe983…a371backed No | 57c | 45.39$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.67 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b06…978dbacked Yes | 37c | 45.15$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.86 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | -4.5wins | -0.15per pick | 38cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1382…7820backed Yes | 46c | 43.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 147 | 36.1%53 W · 94 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 37c | 40.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9812…51d6backed Yes | 54c | 40.16$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes | 31c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 250 | 29.2%73 W · 177 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 71c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e70…50ebbacked No | 59c | 39.73$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.18 | 315 | 67%211 W · 104 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 44-45°F on February 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 41°F or below on February 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 56°F or higher on February 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 42-43°F on February 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 46-47°F on February 17?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 48-49°F on February 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 50-51°F on February 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 52-53°F on February 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 54-55°F on February 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.