Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 42-43°F on February 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc12284ad9f05c1f05e0b70b33d1a583dd56f1beac5e555b41b6eb57e802f31b3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,559
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,556
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,559 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf011…eb29backed Yes | 0c | 12,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 15cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ec4…9c76backed No | 67c | 700.47$468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.49 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…1b63backed Yes | 15c | 600.38$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.81 | 432 | 38%164 W · 268 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes | 13c | 487.58$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.39 | 335 | 35.2%118 W · 217 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 18c | 433.11$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.13 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9d…06b0backed Yes | 6c | 364.89$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.89 | 187 | 27.3%51 W · 136 L | +9.1wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f6d…b4c7backed Yes | 36c | 314.73$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.33 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 16c | 310.57$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.41 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xace5…4457backed Yes | 14c | 299.99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.8 | 58 | 12.1%7 W · 51 L | -7.9wins | -0.14per pick | 26cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe228…1e29backed Yes | 28c | 289.85$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.16 | 75 | 30.7%23 W · 52 L | -5.4wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd5e2…358ebacked Yes | 7c | 272.71$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.09 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | -71.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd0c8…dd57backed Yes | 15c | 239.72$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.56 | 78 | 35.9%28 W · 50 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 60c | 237.64$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.73 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x1c02…ba96backed Yes | 14c | 226.43$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.18 | 83 | 41%34 W · 49 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 18c | 220.9$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.12 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 20c | 214.51$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.11 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 78c | 204.39$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.85 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc282…cd6abacked Yes | 15c | 200.58$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.28 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x584e…090fbacked No | 77c | 191.36$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.98 | 478 | 34.3%164 W · 314 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb881…20a1backed Yes | 53c | 189.85$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -3.9wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 17c | 186.43$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.04 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 23c | 171.58$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.1 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa054…acdabacked Yes | 19c | 147$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.87 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 19c | 137.41$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.65 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 11c | 129.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed No | 68c | 128.72$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.39 | 539 | 25.6%138 W · 401 L | -18.4wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0eec…e587backed Yes | 11c | 124.29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.67 | 88 | 35.2%31 W · 57 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 11c | 120.81$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 29c | 114.77$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.36 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e05…0f40backed No | 66c | 103.86$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.97 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd255…3c50backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 74 | 31.1%23 W · 51 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87c7…d1b6backed Yes | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb8…f7debacked Yes | 22c | 98.33$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.55 | 183 | 16.4%30 W · 153 L | +6.6wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9864…b2ebbacked Yes | 41c | 97.53$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe17b…6f98backed No | 69c | 91.78$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.45 | 101 | 50.5%51 W · 50 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Yes | 11c | 90.91$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07f6…2ed5backed Yes | 17c | 89.8$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 16c | 87.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a96…b81abacked No | 80c | 79.75$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.95 | 69 | 49.3%34 W · 35 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa301…b4efbacked No | 77c | 71$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 53 | 60.4%32 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8735…6ae1backed Yes | 22c | 66.82$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb12…a85dbacked Yes | 23c | 60.55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -42%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef03…1fbfbacked No | 72c | 60$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.56 | 109 | 56%61 W · 48 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef96…58a7backed Yes | 35c | 57.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf19f…f313backed Yes | 17c | 57.47$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa37d…b2b4backed Yes | 27c | 53.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.64 | 321 | 57.3%184 W · 137 L | +17.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6edd…6569backed Yes | 28c | 53.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 27c | 52.94$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.24 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 79c | 51.29$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.9 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa935…272dbacked Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 33cpaid | +79.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f43…a080backed No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 118 | 55.1%65 W · 53 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83af…bcc6backed No | 77c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.35 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 78cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e75…9311backed No | 63c | 31.47$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.55 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0574…e49fbacked No | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 67 | 29.9%20 W · 47 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5a0…5254backed Yes | 41c | 28.4$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc941…a0e8backed No | 72c | 24.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 208 | 38%79 W · 129 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe983…a371backed No | 64c | 23.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.27 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ce3…7da2backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76a2…6651backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 146 | 37.7%55 W · 91 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88be…4b4ebacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68a3…5dd5backed No | 61c | 19.56$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.63 | 467 | 43.7%204 W · 263 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 64c | 17.87$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.35 | 495 | 43.6%216 W · 279 L | +31.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x95f7…ae50backed No | 72c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -3.0wins | -0.16per pick | 58cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 42-43°F on February 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 41°F or below on February 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 56°F or higher on February 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 44-45°F on February 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 46-47°F on February 17?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 48-49°F on February 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 50-51°F on February 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 52-53°F on February 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 54-55°F on February 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.