Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 48-49°F on February 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe3edacd590e8910c68efb424d1c1c2479bde614a37d74eda412943a9b6700168
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,688
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,966
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,688 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 4c | 3,180$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.39 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 5c | 2,270$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.19 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9d…06b0backed Yes | 10c | 2,122$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.6 | 187 | 27.3%51 W · 136 L | +9.1wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 4c | 1,808$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.33 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 6c | 1,758$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.66 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa37d…b2b4backed Yes | 10c | 1,369$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.45 | 321 | 57.3%184 W · 137 L | +17.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x39c9…b108backed Yes | 14c | 999.83$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.33 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +8.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 12c | 974.56$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.78 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5e2…358ebacked Yes | 16c | 790.91$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.95 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | -71.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97eb…9fbebacked Yes | 8c | 780.58$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.15 | 299 | 22.7%68 W · 231 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6371…fc91backed Yes | 20c | 693.54$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.54 | 98 | 36.7%36 W · 62 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x797b…c1dbbacked Yes | 10c | 689.99$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.16 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 11c | 663.85$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.11 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 14c | 644.27$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.16 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 3c | 564.2$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.49 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Yes | 8c | 557.79$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.2 | 539 | 25.6%138 W · 401 L | -18.4wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked Yes | 4c | 530.21$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.31 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x9caa…1a3fbacked Yes | 12c | 521$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.38 | 122 | 35.2%43 W · 79 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 7c | 476.94$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.57 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes | 8c | 467.75$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.42 | 342 | 19.9%68 W · 274 L | +18.6wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes | 11c | 364.72$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.34 | 483 | 31.3%151 W · 332 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f46…1bbabacked Yes | 9c | 358.92$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.81 | 121 | 25.6%31 W · 90 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf57d…f322backed Yes | 10c | 340.83$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.1 | 255 | 19.2%49 W · 206 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 11c | 301.05$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.31 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed Yes | 10c | 300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 495 | 43.6%216 W · 279 L | +31.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ec4…9c76backed Yes | 20c | 269.99$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a42…8da8backed Yes | 12c | 248.12$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.82 | 388 | 40.7%158 W · 230 L | -14.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked Yes | 13c | 219.06$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.33 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f3d…76a2backed Yes | 16c | 214.98$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.36 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4279…9f1bbacked Yes | 10c | 205.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.66 | 100 | 43%43 W · 57 L | +9.0wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 15c | 205.27$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.81 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 9c | 201.59$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.09 | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 8c | 199.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f35…e1ddbacked Yes | 10c | 175.6$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.85 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 15c | 157.61$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.98 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 9c | 144.4$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1c05…e80abacked Yes | 10c | 144$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 7cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2779…62dfbacked Yes | 9c | 120$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 251 | 19.9%50 W · 201 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -29%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee7a…b68dbacked Yes | 11c | 93$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd8ca…1d7abacked Yes | 11c | 91.42$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 79c | 74$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.18 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x982c…40d8backed No | 80c | 18.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.86 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +62.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 48-49°F on February 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 41°F or below on February 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 56°F or higher on February 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 42-43°F on February 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 44-45°F on February 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 46-47°F on February 17?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 50-51°F on February 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 52-53°F on February 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 54-55°F on February 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.