Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 46-47°F on February 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa965bdd2c268ef27354a7af9893ed8da5de91e612715b097aee6127c15166bcf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,201
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,592
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,201 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 114 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7966…b251backed No | 80c | 1,528$1,221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,220.51 | 143 | 59.4%85 W · 58 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9d…06b0backed Yes | 23c | 1,482$338 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,143.39 | 187 | 27.3%51 W · 136 L | +9.1wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 31c | 1,280$397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$882.57 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 20c | 1,095$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.5 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked Yes | 19c | 1,093$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$883.02 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x1558…4f75backed No | 68c | 1,087$735 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$734.86 | 42 | 71.4%30 W · 12 L | +7.1wins | +0.17per pick | 55cpaid | +28%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b5…bef4backed No | 79c | 862.09$684 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$683.58 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes | 50c | 641.98$321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320.55 | 483 | 31.3%151 W · 332 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c02…ba96backed No | 70c | 572.01$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$401.49 | 83 | 41%34 W · 49 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 56c | 570.15$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.3 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4f35…e1ddbacked Yes | 35c | 554.86$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$362.72 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8487…a68bbacked Yes | 37c | 531.52$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$335.52 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 76c | 464.46$354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.53 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ec4…9c76backed Yes | 34c | 400.21$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.66 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked No | 9c | 383.72$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.68 | 342 | 19.9%68 W · 274 L | +18.6wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa37d…b2b4backed Yes | 41c | 379.33$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.97 | 321 | 57.3%184 W · 137 L | +17.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d35…3af0backed No | 72c | 344.02$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.37 | 38 | 71.1%27 W · 11 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 63cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f46…1bbabacked Yes | 36c | 324.89$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.87 | 121 | 25.6%31 W · 90 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc516…3f8bbacked No | 80c | 300$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.59 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca85…fe6cbacked Yes | 23c | 284.45$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.17 | 222 | 36.5%81 W · 141 L | +10.1wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 31c | 279.29$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.86 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e75…9311backed No | 17c | 277.07$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.84 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0eec…e587backed Yes | 46c | 271.09$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.54 | 88 | 35.2%31 W · 57 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4279…9f1bbacked Yes | 28c | 270.88$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.63 | 100 | 43%43 W · 57 L | +9.0wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x76a2…6651backed Yes | 58c | 268.82$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.74 | 146 | 37.7%55 W · 91 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32cb…04c6backed Yes | 42c | 263.57$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.57 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3847…df89backed No | 76c | 263.18$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.20per pick | 65cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 35c | 258.59$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.1 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b22…8945backed No | 10c | 250.18$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 253 | 41.5%105 W · 148 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x39c9…b108backed Yes | 35c | 249.97$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.48 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +8.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf97…567abacked Yes | 29c | 248.32$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.79 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.71per pick | 29cpaid | +247.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed Yes | 22c | 247.14$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.93 | 328 | 18.3%60 W · 268 L | +15.8wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 58c | 241.11$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.5 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked Yes | 41c | 222.89$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 34c | 211.5$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.67 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe17b…6f98backed Yes | 71c | 202.5$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.99 | 101 | 50.5%51 W · 50 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x162e…986bbacked No | 80c | 200$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 70 | 55.7%39 W · 31 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefd0…7e95backed No | 63c | 199.99$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe3a3…519fbacked Yes | 31c | 191$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 18cpaid | +63.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf724…c178backed Yes | 30c | 188.68$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.55 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 68c | 187.79$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.04 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 41c | 180.47$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.23 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 30c | 178.95$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.24 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 28c | 172.23$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.63 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x095b…6f34backed Yes | 43c | 168.65$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.47 | 94 | 47.9%45 W · 49 L | +10.7wins | +0.11per pick | 36cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 18c | 159.97$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.88 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24fe…3419backed Yes | 46c | 150.46$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.9 | 212 | 35.8%76 W · 136 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x34e4…e1e1backed Yes | 10c | 150$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +2.5wins | +0.12per pick | 26cpaid | +32%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x860d…fa0cbacked Yes | 48c | 148.24$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.14 | 242 | 16.9%41 W · 201 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c2…b14dbacked Yes | 33c | 140.71$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.08 | 70 | 38.6%27 W · 43 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 70c | 133.27$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.24 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a42…8da8backed Yes | 33c | 119.53$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.09 | 388 | 40.7%158 W · 230 L | -14.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Yes | 22c | 110.46$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.37 | 539 | 25.6%138 W · 401 L | -18.4wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0460…dd10backed Yes | 37c | 107.89$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.89 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f3d…76a2backed Yes | 35c | 107.08$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.51 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa301…b4efbacked Yes | 80c | 104.8$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.34 | 53 | 60.4%32 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb5d…3961backed Yes | 34c | 104.73$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.45 | 91 | 42.9%39 W · 52 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6371…fc91backed Yes | 43c | 104.06$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.79 | 98 | 36.7%36 W · 62 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0645…c08ebacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 63 | 38.1%24 W · 39 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.01 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9469…6d18backed No | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 959 | 42.4%407 W · 552 L | +84.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8b3d…2c18backed No | 63c | 100$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.3 | 70 | 65.7%46 W · 24 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6405…7d19backed No | 31c | 99.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 84 | 38.1%32 W · 52 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed Yes | 13c | 97.71$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.33 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5bea…9f47backed Yes | 30c | 93.3$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.29 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x797b…c1dbbacked Yes | 38c | 92.18$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.14 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb881…20a1backed Yes | 24c | 87.33$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.33 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -3.9wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcce6…77d1backed Yes | 16c | 82.25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.95 | 91 | 39.6%36 W · 55 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 32c | 81.79$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.96 | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 72c | 80$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.6 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80bd…1f70backed Yes | 30c | 77.79$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.37 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +6.1wins | +0.15per pick | 41cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 69c | 71.18$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.03 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf963…55e4backed No | 76c | 70.62$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 65cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed Yes | 31c | 67.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.62 | 495 | 43.6%216 W · 279 L | +31.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2742…1f7abacked Yes | 50c | 66.1$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.96 | 113 | 59.3%67 W · 46 L | +17.5wins | +0.15per pick | 44cpaid | +69.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x11c5…70e3backed Yes | 21c | 64.25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.06 | 91 | 62.6%57 W · 34 L | +10.5wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1382…7820backed Yes | 33c | 61.18$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.18 | 147 | 36.1%53 W · 94 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c2b…36f4backed No | 67c | 60$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.32 | 73 | 47.9%35 W · 38 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaba1…ac85backed No | 72c | 58.34$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.92 | 112 | 59.8%67 W · 45 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11c0…f014backed No | 80c | 54.96$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.97 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -4.0wins | -0.17per pick | 54cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 64c | 54.64$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.8 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 39c | 53.1$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.54 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00d2…fe64backed Yes | 29c | 53$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.41 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x326a…2ebfbacked Yes | 38c | 52.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.44 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa11e…1b2dbacked No | 65c | 52.1$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.86 | 65 | 49.2%32 W · 33 L | -5.1wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b4e…d839backed No | 79c | 51.33$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.55 | 227 | 28.6%65 W · 162 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5e2…358ebacked No | 79c | 50.92$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.21 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | -71.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f43…a080backed No | 66c | 44.91$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 118 | 55.1%65 W · 53 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd21c…8628backed No | 66c | 44$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.07 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 68cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x12f0…8665backed No | 70c | 42.86$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.19per pick | 59cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc03…3c05backed Yes | 76c | 41.84$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.83 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb9a…fd63backed No | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.7wins | -0.18per pick | 44cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa1dd…ab1dbacked Yes | 27c | 40.1$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 16cpaid | +85.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked No | 67c | 39.97$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.78 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f27…7d0dbacked Yes | 62c | 39.16$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.06 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 29c | 38.68$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.31 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e70…50ebbacked No | 59c | 35.58$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.17 | 315 | 67%211 W · 104 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 46-47°F on February 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 41°F or below on February 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 56°F or higher on February 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 42-43°F on February 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 44-45°F on February 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 48-49°F on February 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 50-51°F on February 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 52-53°F on February 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 54-55°F on February 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.