NHL · resolved market
Spread: Senators (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x78bcefdadc2f4f8ffd0b2d4886b96a5bb802ece48e04637836055b57f32b217e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Senatorsof Senators, Kraken
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,803
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,803 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4488…e319backed Senators | 36c | 1,538$557 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$981.26 | 272 | 43.4%118 W · 154 L | -16.8wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xada5…db70backed Kraken | 64c | 1,409$897 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$896.84 | 434 | 56%243 W · 191 L | +16.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Senators | 36c | 1,136$409 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$727.2 | 895 | 47%421 W · 474 L | -18.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3920…23e7backed Kraken | 63c | 650$409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$409.5 | 396 | 49.5%196 W · 200 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5b…a569backed Kraken | 66c | 181.82$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 226 | 55.8%126 W · 100 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc23…8283backed Kraken | 65c | 152.85$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 252 | 58.3%147 W · 105 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Senators | 67c | 128.11$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.02 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Senators | 35c | 122.23$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.66 | 381 | 47.2%180 W · 201 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Kraken | 66c | 121.74$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 811 | 57.2%464 W · 347 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed Kraken | 67c | 109.98$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.91 | 317 | 53.3%169 W · 148 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Kraken | 62c | 109.36$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.81 | 594 | 50.8%302 W · 292 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x011b…fcc3backed Kraken | 65c | 107.69$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 177 | 59.9%106 W · 71 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2942…a018backed Kraken | 65c | 104.62$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 215 | 60.9%131 W · 84 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb20…40a6backed Senators | 76c | 87$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.28 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +62.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d54…a756backed Senators | 34c | 84.36$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.52 | 150 | 54%81 W · 69 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c04…2e2dbacked Kraken | 64c | 79.69$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 542 | 60.3%327 W · 215 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Senators | 34c | 58$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.28 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed Kraken | 64c | 54.69$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 401 | 62.1%249 W · 152 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Senators | 43c | 49.74$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.17 | 604 | 49.2%297 W · 307 L | -17.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Kraken | 24c | 47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 657 | 21.9%144 W · 513 L | -105.6wins | -0.16per pick | 38cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Kraken | 36c | 44$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Kraken | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 234 | 50%117 W · 117 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Kraken | 65c | 32.31$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 690 | 61.6%425 W · 265 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9666…2af8backed Kraken | 52c | 25.31$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.16 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec66…e58fbacked Kraken | 65c | 24.62$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 336 | 60.7%204 W · 132 L | +9.4wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07c9…9f5bbacked Kraken | 66c | 21.21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 365 | 61.9%226 W · 139 L | +12.5wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Kraken | 62c | 18.32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.36 | 919 | 45.6%419 W · 500 L | -27.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e0…5dd5backed Kraken | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe20c…bf55backed Kraken | 68c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.6wins | -0.23per pick | 41cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Senators (-1.5)this page
- Senators vs. KrakenSenators won
- Senators vs. Kraken: O/U 4.5Over won
- Senators vs. Kraken: O/U 5.5Over won
- Senators vs. Kraken: O/U 6.5Over won
- Senators vs. Kraken: O/U 7.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.