NHL · resolved market
Senators vs. Kraken: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x76cad67fe03c64cc1adfdd0eff658163e19ad49aca31d2c2b739a29ad9f90fcf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,672
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,672 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Under | 48c | 4,170$2,002 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,001.57 | 852 | 50.2%428 W · 424 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 45c | 2,123$963 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$963.01 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69ff…0d1dbacked Over | 54c | 1,500$810 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$689.99 | 271 | 50.2%136 W · 135 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5611…e5f4backed Over | 55c | 1,091$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490.91 | 95 | 47.4%45 W · 50 L | -5.2wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf6a…436bbacked Over | 55c | 998.56$548 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +82.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab36…93eabacked Under | 48c | 993.56$477 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$476.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Over | 52c | 961.56$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$461.55 | 561 | 52%292 W · 269 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Over | 52c | 842$438 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$404.16 | 764 | 50.4%385 W · 379 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Over | 52c | 830.67$432 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$398.72 | 530 | 50.6%268 W · 262 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Over | 52c | 716$372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$343.68 | 514 | 52.3%269 W · 245 L | +17.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 45c | 608.99$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.79 | 629 | 51.2%322 W · 307 L | +18.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Over | 54c | 577.52$313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.26 | 472 | 56.8%268 W · 204 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Over | 55c | 561.1$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.64 | 115 | 47%54 W · 61 L | +6.2wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 70c | 372.97$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.21 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Under | 46c | 347.83$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 1,093 | 51.8%566 W · 527 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 48c | 340.5$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.05 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f69…23cbbacked Over | 54c | 332.99$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.17 | 111 | 27%30 W · 81 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -13%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 48c | 255.9$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.53 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Under | 46c | 251.55$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.71 | 919 | 45.6%419 W · 500 L | -27.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dcf…4eb4backed Over | 52c | 230.77$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.77 | 167 | 56.3%94 W · 73 L | +9.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd17a…0373backed Under | 46c | 150$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 98 | 56.1%55 W · 43 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Over | 52c | 115.38$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.38 | 565 | 53.6%303 W · 262 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6082…6ce2backed Over | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 97 | 46.4%45 W · 52 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Over | 74c | 94.5$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.45 | 1,140 | 51.5%587 W · 553 L | +40.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Under | 45c | 75.71$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.07 | 599 | 50.4%302 W · 297 L | +20.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84ef…cdd9backed Over | 54c | 74.07$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.07 | 156 | 49.4%77 W · 79 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked Over | 52c | 74$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.52 | 159 | 44.7%71 W · 88 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3036…15c2backed Over | 56c | 62.5$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 416 | 50.7%211 W · 205 L | +15.5wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Under | 45c | 56.39$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.56 | 604 | 49.2%297 W · 307 L | -17.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Under | 50c | 50.4$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.02 | 657 | 21.9%144 W · 513 L | -105.6wins | -0.16per pick | 38cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1d54…a756backed Over | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 150 | 54%81 W · 69 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Over | 45c | 47.84$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.47 | 1,431 | 58.3%834 W · 597 L | +81.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Under | 51c | 45$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.95 | 913 | 34.1%311 W · 602 L | -27.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 54c | 42.59$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.59 | 425 | 58.6%249 W · 176 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf6…2971backed Over | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e01…7ef0backed Over | 55c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.07 | 76 | 35.5%27 W · 49 L | -12.1wins | -0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -33%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xe9a9…7876backed Over | 52c | 32.36$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf10e…4c13backed Over | 52c | 30.1$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.45 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -2.4wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Under | 46c | 25.77$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 607 | 41%249 W · 358 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8441…7925backed Under | 45c | 24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 149 | 44.3%66 W · 83 L | -7.3wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0eca…c56abacked Under | 45c | 24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 513 | 43.3%222 W · 291 L | -21.0wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 52c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.52 | 860 | 49.2%423 W · 437 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ec…7b98backed Over | 57c | 22.77$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.79 | 49 | 61.2%30 W · 19 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe824…65b4backed Under | 47c | 22.4$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 355 | 53%188 W · 167 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54d5…77d4backed Over | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +11%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4861…4fcabacked Over | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 227 | 59.5%135 W · 92 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0be2…d514backed Over | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 225 | 43.1%97 W · 128 L | -12.0wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Over | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 696 | 53.4%372 W · 324 L | -16.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3fc6…7affbacked Over | 54c | 19.23$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.85 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +17%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Senators vs. Kraken: O/U 5.5this page
- Senators vs. KrakenSenators won
- Senators vs. Kraken: O/U 4.5Over won
- Senators vs. Kraken: O/U 6.5Over won
- Senators vs. Kraken: O/U 7.5Over won
- Spread: Senators (-1.5)Senators won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.