Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 42-43°F on February 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x09374c50960c62e3224bc0f72d89cb1ce349b8628c47ab421f41fb2a41571b32
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,817
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,565
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,817 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9f6d…b4c7backed Yes | 60c | 987.23$590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$397.01 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa37d…b2b4backed No | 49c | 737.6$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360.36 | 321 | 57.3%184 W · 137 L | +17.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa7e2…b1a9backed No | 3c | 456.1$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.77 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | -3.7wins | -0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e3…a50cbacked Yes | 61c | 338.04$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.71 | 214 | 36%77 W · 137 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -14%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 7c | 285.32$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.05 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 36c | 269.93$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.13 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a96…b81abacked No | 50c | 198$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 69 | 49.3%34 W · 35 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe228…1e29backed Yes | 47c | 169.49$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.83 | 75 | 30.7%23 W · 52 L | -5.4wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked No | 30c | 114.36$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.77 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf05b…d0b7backed Yes | 46c | 100.61$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.2 | 296 | 42.9%127 W · 169 L | +19.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x00d2…fe64backed No | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f43…a080backed Yes | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 118 | 55.1%65 W · 53 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 70c | 80.15$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.84 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 35c | 79.57$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.81 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c6…c9b8backed Yes | 51c | 78.24$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.24 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc956…9168backed Yes | 37c | 73.44$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.08 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 36c | 67.44$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.07 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 53c | 63.44$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.68 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed No | 50c | 62.73$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.37 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfa8…21dfbacked No | 49c | 62$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.08 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed No | 47c | 58.25$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.21 | 618 | 21.2%131 W · 487 L | -34.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 52c | 58.19$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.29 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7943…27a1backed Yes | 37c | 55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.65 | 320 | 44.7%143 W · 177 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8781…88c0backed Yes | 48c | 51.75$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.75 | 325 | 48.6%158 W · 167 L | +11.8wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe33b…6de8backed Yes | 37c | 50.76$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.12 | 55 | 30.9%17 W · 38 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 45c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b06…978dbacked Yes | 38c | 48.84$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.11 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | -4.5wins | -0.15per pick | 38cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7cde…1af7backed No | 53c | 46.74$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 201 | 46.3%93 W · 108 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x104c…050cbacked No | 52c | 46.28$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 39cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 57c | 45.7$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.47 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked No | 56c | 43.28$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.26 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed No | 36c | 40.31$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 27c | 40$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.2 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x095b…6f34backed Yes | 50c | 39.76$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.88 | 94 | 47.9%45 W · 49 L | +10.7wins | +0.11per pick | 36cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…4092backed Yes | 52c | 39.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.78 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a42…8da8backed Yes | 52c | 36.52$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.44 | 388 | 40.7%158 W · 230 L | -14.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9077…9c3fbacked No | 46c | 36$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.68 | 28 | 71.4%20 W · 8 L | +4.0wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2205…8089backed No | 75c | 33.43$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 290 | 56.2%163 W · 127 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebaf…3235backed Yes | 42c | 30.94$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.01 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e0…5dd5backed No | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x95f7…ae50backed No | 68c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.35 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -3.0wins | -0.16per pick | 58cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…871cbacked Yes | 51c | 28.56$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.98 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2949…4cc8backed Yes | 68c | 28.37$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.09 | 55 | 58.2%32 W · 23 L | +7.7wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe5d6…8a40backed No | 59c | 26.9$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.87 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -4.9wins | -0.22per pick | 68cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf967…1adfbacked Yes | 57c | 26.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.48 | 312 | 62.5%195 W · 117 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e8…aebabacked Yes | 44c | 25.66$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.37 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf82b…8e81backed No | 67c | 25.13$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.84 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe99b…0443backed Yes | 66c | 22.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.61 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 63c | 22.3$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.05 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4de1…18a2backed Yes | 60c | 21.67$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.67 | 435 | 15.2%66 W · 369 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9c8…f330backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e0…b5ccbacked Yes | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 39cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4896…fe47backed Yes | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c00…1c78backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 153 | 30.7%47 W · 106 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cd…a0b0backed No | 68c | 15.05$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 42-43°F on February 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 37°F or below on February 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 52°F or higher on February 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 38-39°F on February 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 40-41°F on February 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 44-45°F on February 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 46-47°F on February 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 48-49°F on February 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 50-51°F on February 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.