Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 5°C on February 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x19810032068457e0e29672f709344bc96541ef8de85bfea2c1c75a8879f958a3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $70,412
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $52,332
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $70,412 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x45b7…b863backed Yes | 1c | 28,810$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.38 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked Yes | 0c | 11,840$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.24 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xaf33…7b7cbacked Yes | 0c | 10,045$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34e4…e1e1backed Yes | 1c | 1,500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +2.5wins | +0.12per pick | 26cpaid | +32%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 5c | 1,304$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.02 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Yes | 8c | 1,202$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.6 | 539 | 25.6%138 W · 401 L | -18.4wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4a8…12eabacked Yes | 3c | 782.09$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.28 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4279…9f1bbacked Yes | 2c | 524.05$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 100 | 43%43 W · 57 L | +9.0wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 65c | 368.04$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.75 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 29c | 268.56$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.9 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 36c | 214.31$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.04 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 600 | 4.2%25 W · 575 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 8c | 200$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6142…335bbacked No | 75c | 197.9$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.11 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 34c | 120.01$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.57 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 56c | 110.84$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.83 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x205b…d66abacked No | 74c | 110$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -35%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 39c | 106.07$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.03 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 43c | 102.74$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.69 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 35c | 101.14$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.45 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a38…ada9backed Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 236 | 33.1%78 W · 158 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaa1…3881backed Yes | 43c | 98.99$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.57 | 51 | 7.8%4 W · 47 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -81%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0eec…e587backed Yes | 32c | 81.26$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 88 | 35.2%31 W · 57 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 32c | 80$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38de…60f0backed Yes | 41c | 76.01$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.01 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe31e…ec88backed Yes | 35c | 74.37$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.03 | 559 | 19.1%107 W · 452 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa817…95d7backed Yes | 43c | 71.07$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.66 | 169 | 34.9%59 W · 110 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2205…8089backed No | 70c | 67.61$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 290 | 56.2%163 W · 127 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 21c | 62.61$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.28 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x525e…ee0dbacked Yes | 40c | 62$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1192…634cbacked Yes | 49c | 60.96$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc09…88edbacked Yes | 42c | 51.78$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 566 | 27.7%157 W · 409 L | +17.8wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57de…cd90backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -2.6wins | -0.14per pick | 35cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c4…1513backed Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 143 | 38.5%55 W · 88 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99e7…44c3backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 67 | 29.9%20 W · 47 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed Yes | 35c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 45c | 49.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69d2…2f75backed Yes | 40c | 49.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef3…f1c5backed Yes | 46c | 49.98$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.99 | 324 | 44.4%144 W · 180 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca85…fe6cbacked Yes | 32c | 46.94$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.02 | 222 | 36.5%81 W · 141 L | +10.1wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 60c | 42.72$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.09 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7cde…1af7backed No | 59c | 42.3$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.34 | 201 | 46.3%93 W · 108 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d72…9795backed No | 62c | 40.24$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.24 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1104…daadbacked Yes | 47c | 38.04$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.88 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 64cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9a…49e3backed Yes | 32c | 34.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 51 | 29.4%15 W · 36 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xade1…9040backed Yes | 44c | 34.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 338 | 39.9%135 W · 203 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f7f…171bbacked No | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | -4.0wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9a42…4b36backed Yes | 48c | 31.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x455e…9cd2backed No | 79c | 30.1$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.42 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad8…43e2backed Yes | 48c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0dbe…e1d8backed Yes | 36c | 29.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 90 | 48.9%44 W · 46 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fd9…2c08backed Yes | 50c | 29.94$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 40c | 28.68$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67ef…2c75backed No | 53c | 26.65$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.44 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.29per pick | 31cpaid | +57%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 40c | 26.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07b5…0d88backed No | 65c | 25.2$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.82 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb55…5e8abacked No | 62c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.42 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +50.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e0…5dd5backed No | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d2b…815abacked No | 58c | 23$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.63 | 102 | 64.7%66 W · 36 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f85…e60fbacked No | 62c | 22.63$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.69 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 54c | 22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.12 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0967…0c60backed No | 46c | 21.83$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 188 | 60.1%113 W · 75 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3767…bbc0backed No | 51c | 20.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.29 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 36cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x517e…4fb2backed No | 66c | 19.2$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.48 | 90 | 76.7%69 W · 21 L | +4.7wins | +0.05per pick | 71cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 5°C on February 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 0°C or below on February 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 1°C on February 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 2°C on February 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 3°C on February 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 4°C on February 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 6°C on February 18?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 7°C on February 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 8°C or higher on February 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.