Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 6°C on February 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb3c4e9dd9d7b8ba0ae43476f1d90965214492da50d1d318bb16d6daa340d188d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,739
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,283
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,739 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked No | 78c | 529.95$412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$412.05 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45b7…b863backed No | 4c | 500$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 35c | 419.36$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.54 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 39c | 412.2$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.13 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 60c | 368.7$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.8 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…1a16backed No | 4c | 350$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed No | 19c | 274.91$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.58 | 539 | 25.6%138 W · 401 L | -18.4wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 43c | 231.79$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.82 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b75…ed49backed Yes | 28c | 231.29$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.19 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +4.6wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 18c | 179.33$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.19 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa817…95d7backed Yes | 18c | 122.14$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.93 | 169 | 34.9%59 W · 110 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98d1…019abacked Yes | 17c | 121.18$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.58 | 255 | 36.9%94 W · 161 L | +17.3wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 28c | 120.02$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.15 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 57c | 117.38$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.8 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b29…623bbacked Yes | 57c | 115.07$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.14 | 268 | 28.7%77 W · 191 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 24c | 102.24$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.73 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a38…ada9backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.21 | 236 | 33.1%78 W · 158 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…a01abacked Yes | 78c | 87.32$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.88 | 616 | 59.3%365 W · 251 L | +68.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xdb9a…fd63backed Yes | 42c | 84.22$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.22 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.7wins | -0.18per pick | 44cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7cde…1af7backed No | 73c | 83.88$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.12 | 201 | 46.3%93 W · 108 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc09…88edbacked Yes | 49c | 81.49$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.49 | 566 | 27.7%157 W · 409 L | +17.8wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea64…dcebbacked Yes | 44c | 79.71$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.72 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a7e…78b1backed Yes | 64c | 78.02$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.74 | 164 | 65.2%107 W · 57 L | +18.9wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfad4…379bbacked Yes | 42c | 71.98$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.75 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe066…104fbacked Yes | 45c | 66.3$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +121%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x525e…ee0dbacked Yes | 29c | 62.18$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 68c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed Yes | 68c | 45.7$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.43 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa935…272dbacked Yes | 35c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.9 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 33cpaid | +79.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xade1…9040backed Yes | 33c | 38.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.97 | 338 | 39.9%135 W · 203 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…2cd1backed No | 79c | 38.35$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.3 | 179 | 78.8%141 W · 38 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 78cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9a…49e3backed Yes | 53c | 32.29$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.33 | 51 | 29.4%15 W · 36 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd21c…8628backed No | 70c | 31$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.66 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 68cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x27db…e863backed Yes | 52c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84a4…21c4backed No | 71c | 29.49$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -3.0wins | -0.20per pick | 66cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 36c | 28.76$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e40…224ebacked No | 70c | 28.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 123 | 57.7%71 W · 52 L | -10.9wins | -0.09per pick | 67cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 62c | 28$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.36 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 49c | 24.55$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0967…0c60backed No | 69c | 23.5$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.22 | 188 | 60.1%113 W · 75 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6a…c64ebacked No | 78c | 22.06$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.21 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -6.6wins | -0.23per pick | 61cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 47c | 21.42$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.34 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe74a…9780backed No | 72c | 20.7$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.83 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -60%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1345…e4debacked No | 76c | 19.65$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 76 | 76.3%58 W · 18 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 72cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c2b…36f4backed No | 74c | 16.54$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 73 | 47.9%35 W · 38 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 67c | 16.43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.03 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8c1…8c6bbacked No | 68c | 15.05$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 105 | 31.4%33 W · 72 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 6°C on February 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 0°C or below on February 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 1°C on February 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 2°C on February 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 3°C on February 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 4°C on February 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 5°C on February 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 7°C on February 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 8°C or higher on February 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.