TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x525e…ee0d

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
67
Categories scored
12
Categories below 50
5

Best Category: Ukraine, grading 56 out of 100 (+0.05 per pick).

Best Category Ukraine at 56 out of 100; worst Olympics at 48.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT2556%14 W · 11 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 25 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.4
Spain vs. Argentina: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Will Spain win on 2026-07-19?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+73.9%+$36.96
Will Spain vs. Belgium end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.25
Will Argentina vs. Egypt end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will United States win on 2026-07-06?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT+61.3%+$30.65
Mexico vs. England: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT+44.9%+$22.46
Will Switzerland win on 2026-07-02?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$31.65
Belgium vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+61.3%+$30.65
France vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$28.5
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Norway: Team to Advancebacked Norway · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT+56.3%+$18
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Norway: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT+69.5%+$20.5
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advancebacked Brazil · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$37Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT+37%+$13.5
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$37Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT+37%+$13.5
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advancebacked Canada · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2026, EDT+47.1%+$47.06
Erling Haaland: 2+ shotsbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$65Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$65
Ivan Perišić: 1+ assistsbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.5
Harry Kane: 1+ goalsbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$29
Will England win on 2026-06-23?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2026, EDT+400%+$40
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$41
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$80Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT+25%+$20
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT+222.6%+$44.85
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT+72.4%+$36.21
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 0.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT+42.9%+$21.43
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$45
All 25 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Feb 20, 2026, EST1127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick31cpaid-21.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Tweets — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from February 13 to February 20, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST-100%-$20.13
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2026, EST-100%-$21.2
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2026, EST+122.4%+$42.84
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2026, EST-100%-$35
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from January 22 to January 24, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 24, 2026, EST-100%-$23.4
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from January 22 to January 24, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 23, 2026, EST-100%-$22.4
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from January 19 to January 21, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2026, EST+300%+$51.75
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from January 19 to January 21, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2026, EST-100%-$19.32
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from January 19 to January 21, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2026, EST-100%-$13.8
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2026, EST+138.1%+$42.34
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2026, EST-100%-$17.37
All 11 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 5, 2026, EDT837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+45.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Middle East — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Macro Indicators Inactivelast resolved Feb 13, 2026, EST520%1 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick29cpaid-25%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Macro Indicators — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Macro Indicators, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Weather Inactivelast resolved Feb 18, 2026, EST425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-13.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Weather — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jul 7, 2026, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.20per pick47cpaid-2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Commodities — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Stocks Inactivelast resolved Jun 3, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick28cpaid-20.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Stocks — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

AI Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick63cpaid+11.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
AI — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jul 22, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.73per pick27cpaid+460.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Champions League Inactivelast resolved Jan 28, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Champions League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will AFC Ajax win on 2026-01-28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2026, EST+51.5%+$51.52
All 1 picks, newest first.
Tennis Inactivelast resolved Jun 2, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Tennis — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverevbacked Rafael Jodar · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$102Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$101.8
All 1 picks, newest first.
Olympics Inactivelast resolved Feb 20, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Olympics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Olympics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Men's Semifinals - Canada vs. Finlandbacked Finland · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST-100%-$17.61
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.