TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Fifa International · resolved market

South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Canadaof South Africa, Canada
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,574,128
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,643,465

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,574,128 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,750 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4d4f…e5f3backed Canada72c457,616$327,959 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129,656.661952.6%10 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-11.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2c33…0563backed South Africa27c449,120$123,180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123,180.4474752.2%390 W · 357 L+2.4wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc430…1ebfbacked South Africa28c356,888$99,929 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99,928.728932.6%29 W · 60 L-3.3wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-22.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9243…658ebacked Canada74c299,999$221,999 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77,999.7915249.3%75 W · 77 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-5.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe221…06f6backed South Africa30c136,634$41,602 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41,601.538246.3%38 W · 44 L+3.2wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4f29…7a7ebacked South Africa31c108,904$34,116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34,116.221,22443.4%531 W · 693 L-7.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-13.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c3a…020bbacked South Africa25c103,589$25,897 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25,897.2121343.2%92 W · 121 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc6a6…9458backed South Africa26c100,000$26,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26,0004753.2%25 W · 22 L+4.2wins+0.09per pick44cpaid+13.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc289…ab37backed Canada71c77,056$55,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22,056.2716947.3%80 W · 89 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-12.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf519…906bbacked South Africa25c61,367$15,342 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,341.7917842.7%76 W · 102 L-0.4wins0.00per pick43cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc44f…d49fbacked Canada72c48,012$34,569 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,443.364161%25 W · 16 L+0.2wins0.00per pick61cpaid-6.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7d78…29a5backed Canada75c45,420$34,065 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,355.13571.4%25 W · 10 L+4.7wins+0.14per pick58cpaid+25.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0e4a…311cbacked Canada68c32,270$21,948 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,3224738.3%18 W · 29 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick40cpaid+23.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked South Africa26c31,438$8,149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,149.143,69636.9%1,364 W · 2,332 L-44.0wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-23.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2117…5c26backed Canada75c29,923$22,378 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,544.851,98532.5%645 W · 1,340 L-47.7wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-13.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9f2f…2ca8backed South Africa27c27,993$7,558 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,558.249142.9%39 W · 52 L-3.4wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-21.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1362…7a14backed South Africa29c24,969$7,241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,241.0120%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x088b…21ccbacked Canada72c24,122$17,368 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,754.155040%20 W · 30 L-2.7wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-2.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed South Africa31c22,858$7,186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,185.757545.3%34 W · 41 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-20.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9106…afcbbacked Canada73c22,222$16,222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,999.948660.5%52 W · 34 L+7.5wins+0.09per pick52cpaid+14.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf298…ada5backed South Africa30c20,598$6,235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,235.16943.5%30 W · 39 L-4.5wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-22.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4cc3…7552backed Canada73c20,000$14,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,4007150.7%36 W · 35 L+0.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-8.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdac7…6d53backed South Africa25c19,302$4,826 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,825.59131.9%29 W · 62 L-6.5wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-21.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x032e…2a9ebacked South Africa27c19,071$5,078 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,078.372,60337.8%984 W · 1,619 L-40.7wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-9.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x51fc…128dbacked Canada72c18,056$13,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,055.568452.4%44 W · 40 L+3.7wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+14.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3818…9797backed Canada66c17,528$11,551 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,976.4517751.4%91 W · 86 L+5.8wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7e5e…7315backed Canada71c17,250$12,247 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,002.426114.8%9 W · 52 L-6.1wins-0.10per pick25cpaid-46.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x67bb…b6efbacked South Africa37c14,632$5,341 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,341.357550.7%38 W · 37 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-10%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc974…b33bbacked South Africa30c14,500$4,350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,35021333.3%71 W · 142 L-6.2wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-12.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4a1c…9867backed Canada72c13,889$10,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,888.897753.2%41 W · 36 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+11.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f65…2036backed South Africa37c13,474$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,00014248.6%69 W · 73 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x39d3…9ef0backed South Africa31c12,938$4,064 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,063.8529740.1%119 W · 178 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x73a3…ee24backed Canada72c12,500$9,025 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,474.973215.6%5 W · 27 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-42.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe00e…ea73backed South Africa27c12,081$3,241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,241.3610732.7%35 W · 72 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-11.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xadfa…324ebacked South Africa25c12,000$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,999.9429646.3%137 W · 159 L-6.5wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-4.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2412…b5a1backed Canada74c11,114$8,224 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,889.558355.4%46 W · 37 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x06fa…455cbacked Canada67c11,014$7,379 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,634.482445.8%11 W · 13 L+0.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid-15.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa608…1b35backed South Africa29c10,951$3,176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,175.893336.4%12 W · 21 L+2.5wins+0.07per pick29cpaid+22%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd02a…4771backed Canada72c10,822$7,792 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,030.224052.5%21 W · 19 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2299…d23abacked South Africa26c10,422$2,710 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,7102532%8 W · 17 L-1.5wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-23.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4064…5f1ebacked South Africa38c10,373$3,933 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,932.552450%12 W · 12 L+2.4wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5b05…c092backed Canada68c10,304$7,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,304.231877.8%14 W · 4 L+1.8wins+0.10per pick68cpaid+15%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe3cb…ac21backed South Africa27c10,254$2,769 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,768.5213151.1%67 W · 64 L+5.0wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+13.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfa69…02c1backed South Africa35c10,225$3,534 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,534.4143737.8%165 W · 272 L-0.9wins0.00per pick38cpaid-16.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Canada78c10,075$7,826 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,249.414,02738.9%1,568 W · 2,459 L-26.6wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-23.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x86e9…4cdfbacked Canada73c10,000$7,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,70036247.2%171 W · 191 L+6.3wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc87…ea3bbacked South Africa27c10,000$2,650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,649.991315.4%2 W · 11 L-1.6wins-0.12per pick28cpaid-69.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb21c…3aedbacked South Africa25c10,000$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,499.956246.8%29 W · 33 L+4.9wins+0.08per pick39cpaid+7.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xaaf9…934abacked Canada75c9,963$7,503 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,459.863100%3 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd604…cb5fbacked Canada72c9,500$6,814 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,686.1433555.5%186 W · 149 L+19.0wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+17.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x779a…b689backed Canada75c9,396$7,047 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,349.075080%40 W · 10 L+5.8wins+0.12per pick68cpaid+12.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x08ff…32ebbacked Canada66c9,226$6,075 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,150.4110550.5%53 W · 52 L-8.1wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-28.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0eb3…97cfbacked South Africa29c8,124$2,350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,349.6834122.3%76 W · 265 L+8.2wins+0.02per pick20cpaid+27.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9733…f034backed Canada72c8,000$5,730 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,2706844.1%30 W · 38 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-9.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed South Africa34c7,987$2,739 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,739.161,14439.2%448 W · 696 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-14.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1ed5…a7ddbacked South Africa29c7,822$2,268 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,268.33425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid-56.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6880…cf03backed Canada65c7,692$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,692.316048.3%29 W · 31 L+4.7wins+0.08per pick41cpaid+30.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe6a9…e35abacked South Africa27c7,224$1,967 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,966.795339.6%21 W · 32 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-15.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x896a…688dbacked South Africa32c7,000$2,210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,209.9611031.8%35 W · 75 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick33cpaid+7.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe23b…7c42backed Canada72c6,976$5,018 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,958.615860.3%35 W · 23 L+4.3wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+9.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf393…9b65backed Canada70c6,711$4,703 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,007.3510624.5%26 W · 80 L-3.5wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-32.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x99f0…7464backed South Africa27c6,439$1,743 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,743.25449.1%4 W · 40 L-5.2wins-0.12per pick21cpaid-63.2%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xe72b…b0a0backed South Africa29c5,871$1,703 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,702.5822139.8%88 W · 133 L-8.7wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-12.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x335d…8c00backed Canada69c5,736$3,959 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,776.544573.3%33 W · 12 L+5.8wins+0.13per pick60cpaid+20.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd760…f7f5backed South Africa26c5,698$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,50010234.3%35 W · 67 L+5.2wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+12.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x75f0…2b66backed South Africa29c5,588$1,618 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,617.5229030.7%89 W · 201 L+6.3wins+0.02per pick29cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2dbd…8990backed Canada72c5,350$3,876 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,4743740.5%15 W · 22 L-3.9wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-34.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb693…cfc9backed Canada67c5,255$3,521 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,734.025242.3%22 W · 30 L-4.5wins-0.09per pick51cpaid-14.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x58aa…a481backed South Africa29c5,172$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5006048.3%29 W · 31 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-13.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0e3a…55babacked Canada72c5,150$3,708 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,44215044%66 W · 84 L-8.8wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-18.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed Canada67c5,093$3,404 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,688.642,63432.9%867 W · 1,767 L+43.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-19.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3ca9…698dbacked Canada75c5,064$3,798 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,265.981861.1%11 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick61cpaid+3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x36a7…b6e9backed South Africa32c5,012$1,604 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,603.758046.3%37 W · 43 L+0.3wins0.00per pick46cpaid+13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked South Africa36c5,009$1,779 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,778.871,25239.2%491 W · 761 L+6.0wins0.00per pick39cpaid-20.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xc82f…66a7backed Canada72c5,000$3,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,40033235.5%118 W · 214 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked Canada73c5,000$3,650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,35077845%350 W · 428 L+10.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+6.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8adc…bafcbacked Canada73c5,000$3,640 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,359.9637754.4%205 W · 172 L+11.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Canada71c4,879$3,463 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,415.968,61429.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L-166.6wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-32.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed South Africa24c4,826$1,172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,171.782,81944.5%1,255 W · 1,564 L-36.2wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-9.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb51…742dbacked Canada71c4,804$3,410 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,393.9112454.8%68 W · 56 L+4.0wins+0.03per pick52cpaid-3.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa81b…4d36backed South Africa33c4,723$1,567 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,566.886434.4%22 W · 42 L+3.2wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8ddd…39eebacked Canada64c4,531$2,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,631.251942.1%8 W · 11 L+1.5wins+0.08per pick34cpaid+85.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcf6c…7e66backed South Africa24c4,293$1,030 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,030.3414349.7%71 W · 72 L-0.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd1d9…5896backed Canada68c4,167$2,833 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,333.377646.1%35 W · 41 L+3.4wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+41.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Canada76c4,163$3,175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$988.592,53346.3%1,174 W · 1,359 L+12.3wins0.00per pick46cpaid-12.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x84c3…6efebacked South Africa35c4,158$1,447 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,446.71225%3 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-55.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9348…6664backed Canada75c4,058$3,044 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,014.543953.8%21 W · 18 L-2.5wins-0.06per pick60cpaid-12.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4411…985ebacked Canada75c4,030$3,023 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,007.559357%53 W · 40 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+1.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xce5e…c0fabacked South Africa36c4,030$1,451 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,450.7921046.7%98 W · 112 L+12.0wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+21.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2805…76edbacked Canada70c4,020$2,805 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,21520448%98 W · 106 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xc229…1b74backed Canada72c4,011$2,888 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,122.988858%51 W · 37 L+10.4wins+0.12per pick46cpaid+27.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xf595…bfb5backed Canada64c4,000$2,560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,44010736.4%39 W · 68 L-0.4wins0.00per pick37cpaid-16.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9b49…04a8backed Canada75c4,000$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0003470.6%24 W · 10 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick66cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b8c…9390backed Canada71c4,000$2,820 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,1808942.7%38 W · 51 L+0.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid+8.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ca1…ddcdbacked Canada64c4,000$2,560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,439.994355.8%24 W · 19 L+4.0wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+13.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc922…2618backed South Africa25c4,000$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$999.9829250.7%148 W · 144 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a67…df6fbacked South Africa25c4,000$1,017 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,017.4616927.8%47 W · 122 L-4.6wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-31%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3a5f…ce01backed Canada75c3,951$2,963 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$987.753652.8%19 W · 17 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7e8a…5f49backed Canada68c3,923$2,668 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,255.45554.5%30 W · 25 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1aee…c139backed South Africa2c3,909$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.833721.6%8 W · 29 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick18cpaid-31.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 39 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.