South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 4.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4d576a70a3de20a106568848a82a3bcae1b6f5d653c6b8697bd5536a2e2dc38c

Rebuilt 6 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Underof Over, Under
Resolved: Jun 28, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $178,582
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $173,531

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $178,582 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xdb15…8393backed Over	10c	25,000$2,500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,499.99	148	29.7%44 W · 104 L	-3.1wins	-0.02per pick	32cpaid	-19.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x54ee…15f8backed Over	11c	17,736$1,948 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,948.28	5	40%2 W · 3 L	+0.5wins	+0.10per pick	30cpaid	+8.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Over	11c	8,323$877 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$876.87	8,614	29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L	-166.6wins	-0.02per pick	31cpaid	-32.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over	9c	8,000$720 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$719.99	592	30.1%178 W · 414 L	-6.8wins	-0.01per pick	31cpaid	-12.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc41e…e2e9backed Over	0c	7,775$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.44	36	2.8%1 W · 35 L	+0.7wins	+0.02per pick	1cpaid	+177.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x37f4…49afbacked Over	10c	6,256$626 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$625.6	190	37.4%71 W · 119 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	37cpaid	+31.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x99f0…9495backed Over	9c	4,393$395 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$395.38	716	38.4%275 W · 441 L	+8.7wins	+0.01per pick	37cpaid	+12.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x61f1…7aefbacked Over	2c	3,121$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65.55	229	51.1%117 W · 112 L	+12.8wins	+0.06per pick	46cpaid	+24.7%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3453…8524backed Over	3c	2,523$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65.6	180	51.1%92 W · 88 L	+12.8wins	+0.07per pick	44cpaid	+16.1%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7ae1…8c1bbacked Over	5c	2,204$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.69	163	25.8%42 W · 121 L	+2.6wins	+0.02per pick	24cpaid	-36.8%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x90ba…63f3backed Over	11c	2,150$237 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$236.5	605	11.4%69 W · 536 L	-16.5wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-38%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x06f2…1269backed Over	5c	1,929$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$101.86	383	33.9%130 W · 253 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	33cpaid	-34.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Over	8c	1,554$121 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120.83	108	36.1%39 W · 69 L	+8.7wins	+0.08per pick	28cpaid	+32.6%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0x9156…3d69backed Over	10c	1,436$144 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$143.58	39	20.5%8 W · 31 L	-1.5wins	-0.04per pick	24cpaid	-38.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x325f…4511backed Over	3c	1,244$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.41	1,627	32.1%523 W · 1,104 L	+4.0wins	0.00per pick	32cpaid	-19.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc89e…6a30backed Over	3c	999.99$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.8	39	28.2%11 W · 28 L	+1.5wins	+0.04per pick	24cpaid	-34.8%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xaf16…464ebacked Over	10c	968.8$97 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$96.88	121	17.4%21 W · 100 L	+2.9wins	+0.02per pick	15cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0f21…3d6ebacked Over	11c	954.55$105 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$105	302	20.2%61 W · 241 L	-15.6wins	-0.05per pick	25cpaid	-17.8%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe82b…2c44backed Over	10c	940$94 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$94	23	21.7%5 W · 18 L	+0.5wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	+41.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe34a…f5f0backed Over	1c	849.7$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.9	98	48%47 W · 51 L	+4.5wins	+0.05per pick	43cpaid	+9.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x490f…a02dbacked Over	10c	810$81 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$81	257	37%95 W · 162 L	+9.5wins	+0.04per pick	33cpaid	+34.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x82c0…02fdbacked Over	10c	800$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	74	24.3%18 W · 56 L	+3.2wins	+0.04per pick	20cpaid	+33.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1bb1…eac3backed Over	10c	800$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	159	20.1%32 W · 127 L	+3.3wins	+0.02per pick	18cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over	7c	704$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.88	2,307	37.6%867 W · 1,440 L	-16.7wins	-0.01per pick	38cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Over	3c	697$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.92	2,453	34.7%850 W · 1,603 L	+84.3wins	+0.03per pick	31cpaid	-10.8%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Over	9c	646.97$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.23	4,457	37.2%1,657 W · 2,800 L	+31.0wins	+0.01per pick	36cpaid	-8.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5821…7c51backed Over	11c	642.99$73 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72.52	384	37%142 W · 242 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	36cpaid	-4.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0886…b3a6backed Over	11c	636.36$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	329	22.5%74 W · 255 L	-3.7wins	-0.01per pick	24cpaid	-13%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5811…0976backed Over	9c	600$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51	977	42%410 W · 567 L	-6.5wins	-0.01per pick	43cpaid	-7.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6804…29e2backed Over	8c	515.62$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.38	44	25%11 W · 33 L	-1.9wins	-0.04per pick	29cpaid	-32.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x66cd…3170backed Over	6c	499$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.94	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-0.6wins	-0.10per pick	44cpaid	-42.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5630…7574backed Over	2c	477.81$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.99	39	48.7%19 W · 20 L	+0.6wins	+0.02per pick	47cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbf9c…3648backed Over	10c	471$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.72	74	31.1%23 W · 51 L	+1.5wins	+0.02per pick	29cpaid	+7.8%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x865f…e88ebacked Over	9c	437.33$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.36	1,045	29.3%306 W · 739 L	-10.8wins	-0.01per pick	30cpaid	+3.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdec4…046fbacked Over	9c	422.22$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38	345	26.1%90 W · 255 L	-5.9wins	-0.02per pick	28cpaid	-4.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2792…c4f6backed Over	8c	421$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.8	37	27%10 W · 27 L	-0.7wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-13.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8e79…9076backed Over	8c	375$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	413	39%161 W · 252 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	39cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd0c3…dde1backed Over	3c	357.14$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	47	25.5%12 W · 35 L	-3.9wins	-0.08per pick	34cpaid	-46%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf009…19e9backed Over	10c	320$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32	438	19.2%84 W · 354 L	-3.0wins	-0.01per pick	20cpaid	-7.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed Over	5c	316.44$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.91	2,634	32.9%867 W · 1,767 L	+43.3wins	+0.02per pick	31cpaid	-19.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd546…657bbacked Over	9c	311.11$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28	306	7.8%24 W · 282 L	-7.5wins	-0.02per pick	10cpaid	-38.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x032e…2a9ebacked Over	9c	275$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.75	2,603	37.8%984 W · 1,619 L	-40.7wins	-0.02per pick	39cpaid	-9.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5ead…2edfbacked Over	10c	250$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	121	14.9%18 W · 103 L	-9.4wins	-0.08per pick	23cpaid	-59.6%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4433…9d34backed Over	7c	245.33$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.28	788	35.3%278 W · 510 L	+9.6wins	+0.01per pick	34cpaid	-16.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x09dd…7e13backed Over	6c	210$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.6	379	44.1%167 W · 212 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	-12.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x94a5…9838backed Over	10c	200$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	84	39.3%33 W · 51 L	-2.8wins	-0.03per pick	43cpaid	-12%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0bb1…daf7backed Over	10c	200$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	188	21.8%41 W · 147 L	-5.0wins	-0.03per pick	24cpaid	-22.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc52b…e1f1backed Over	10c	190$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdc4f…9804backed Over	9c	185.96$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.28	848	44.3%376 W · 472 L	-6.4wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	+0.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x77bc…b91bbacked Over	5c	183.97$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.04	1,711	35.2%603 W · 1,108 L	-68.3wins	-0.04per pick	39cpaid	-22.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xaa10…065abacked Over	9c	166.67$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	96	54.2%52 W · 44 L	+1.6wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	+2.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe692…05e8backed Over	10c	150$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	82	25.6%21 W · 61 L	+3.7wins	+0.05per pick	21cpaid	+12.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x51ce…43fabacked Over	10c	150$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	1,388	15.1%210 W · 1,178 L	-16.0wins	-0.01per pick	16cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf219…76bbbacked Over	10c	150$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	48	20.8%10 W · 38 L	-1.4wins	-0.03per pick	24cpaid	-30.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeb2e…7821backed Over	9c	140$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.13	1,421	47.8%679 W · 742 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x05e6…dc9bbacked Over	10c	130$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.8wins	-0.27per pick	27cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6383…6e28backed Over	9c	127$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.99	38	23.7%9 W · 29 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	24cpaid	-14.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xddb9…901bbacked Over	8c	125$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	31	48.4%15 W · 16 L	+3.9wins	+0.13per pick	36cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x33d5…8b86backed Over	11c	110$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.1	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	+0.1wins	+0.02per pick	12cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9ec1…836fbacked Over	10c	104.5$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.45	24	29.2%7 W · 17 L	-2.2wins	-0.09per pick	38cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x591b…8410backed Over	10c	100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	91	40.7%37 W · 54 L	+4.3wins	+0.05per pick	36cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x57d8…a490backed Over	10c	100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	205	39%80 W · 125 L	-8.8wins	-0.04per pick	43cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 39 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 4.5this page
South Africa vs. Canada: 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
South Africa vs. Canada: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
South Africa vs. Canada: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
South Africa vs. Canada: 2nd Half O/U 0.5Over won
South Africa vs. Canada: 2nd Half O/U 1.5Under won
South Africa vs. Canada: 2nd Half O/U 2.5Under won
South Africa vs. Canada: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
South Africa vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score in First HalfNo won
South Africa vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score in Second HalfNo won
South Africa vs. Canada: Canada 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
South Africa vs. Canada: Canada 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
South Africa vs. Canada: Canada 2nd Half O/U 0.5Over won
South Africa vs. Canada: Canada 2nd Half O/U 1.5Under won
South Africa vs. Canada: Canada O/U 0.5Over won
South Africa vs. Canada: Canada O/U 1.5Under won
South Africa vs. Canada: Canada O/U 2.5Under won
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 0.5Over won
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 1.5Under won
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 2.5Under won
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 3.5Under won
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 5.5Under won
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 6.5Under won
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 7.5Under won
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 8.5Under won
South Africa vs. Canada: South Africa 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
South Africa vs. Canada: South Africa 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
South Africa vs. Canada: South Africa 2nd Half O/U 0.5Under won
South Africa vs. Canada: South Africa O/U 0.5Under won
South Africa vs. Canada: South Africa O/U 1.5Under won
South Africa vs. Canada: South Africa O/U 2.5Under won
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to AdvanceCanada won
Spread: Canada (-1.5)South Africa won
Spread: Canada (-2.5)South Africa won
Spread: Canada (-3.5)South Africa won
Spread: Canada (-4.5)South Africa won
Spread: Canada (-5.5)South Africa won
Spread: South Africa (-1.5)Canada won
Spread: South Africa (-2.5)Canada won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 4.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event